The Week 13 main slate for DFS purposes is missing a lot of offensive firepower. The Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks play on Thursday night, while the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars are featured on Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football respectively. Additionally, the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and Chicago Bears are on bye, amongst others. However, the wide receiver position still features plenty of options for us to use in our NFL DFS lineups. By taking a look at projected game and team totals, as well as our NFL DFS Week 13 player projections, we’ll get a good look at how we can best optimize the wide receiver position in our NFL DFS lineups.
From superstar receivers to top NFL DFS stacks, the NFL DFS WR Coach will have multiple plays at various pricing tiers to help construct your lineups. Without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s DFS WR Coach, highlighting the top plays, values, and fades at the wide receiver position to help build your NFL DFS lineups for Sunday’s main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!
NFL DFS WR Top Tier Picks
In a game where points are going to be scored, I’m going with Brown as my top dog on the slate. While it was a quiet game for him last week, he still managed to find the end zone for the fifth time in as many games, and his eight targets mark the sixth time in the last seven games he received at least eight targets. San Francisco plays far more zone coverage than man, and Brown has a 2.50 yards per route run, 13.9 aDOT, and 85.8 receiving grade, per Pro Football Focus, against zone coverage this season. I prefer Brown to Devonta Smith this week.
High floor + high ceiling = great DFS play
That’s where we’re at with Allen this week, who has three straight games with at least 10 receptions, 14 targets, and 106 receiving yards. The Patriots have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the last four weeks, and while Bill Belichick is known for stopping your best offensive weapon, he just doesn’t have the guys to do that. Jalin Hyatt went for 109 yards last week, Michael Pittman went for 84 yards the week before, and in the few weeks before that, Terry McLaurin, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle went for 73, 112, and 121 yards respectively. Don’t be scared of Allen this week.
Update (12/2): After a couple DNP's this week, Allen practiced in limited fashion on Friday. He should be fine for this matchup and can be deployed as usual, but I like Allen more in GPPs, because I expect the masses to either pay up for Tyreek Hill, or pivot to Amon-Ra St. Brown at a similar price point.
If you want an elite ceiling and elite floor this week in DFS, pay up for Tyreek Hill. Washington has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game over the last four weeks to wide receivers, and second-most for the entire 2023 season. Hill has double-digit targets in six straight games, and in games that Miami has won this season, Hill has averaged 139.5 yards per game in those contests. I like Miami to win this one, meaning I like a big day for Hill, as the two seem to coincide with one another, not to the surprise of many.
Added 12/2: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
The Saints are banged up, and St. Brown should see a good bit of Alontae Taylor in the slot this weekend. That matters because no cornerback in the NFL has allowed more yards or receptions in slot coverage than New Orleans' Alontae Taylor. St. Brown has one of the highest floors in fantasy football, and he finds himself in the beautiful situation where high volume meets a dream matchup. St. Brown has a high floor and a very high ceiling as well in this matchup.
NFL DFS WR Mid-Tier Picks
Deebo Samuel may have stolen the show on Thanksgiving day, but this week, it’s an Aiyuk week. I do like Samuel, but if I can only choose one San Francisco wide receiver, it’s Aiyuk. The Eagles play man defense at one of the higher rates in the league, and Aiyuk has been superior to Samuel when facing man this season. Here are a few key metrics on Aiyuk against man coverage this season, per Pro Football Focus:
- 21.3 yards per reception
- 4.16 yards per route run
- 13.6 average depth of target (aDOT)
- 130 passer rating when targeted
Aiyuk may be in the mid-tier picks section here, but he’s one of my absolute favorite plays on the slate.
The Miami receivers are going to cost a pretty penny, but it’s worth it. The matchup can’t simply get any better than this, as I pointed out earlier with Tyreek Hill. I’ll mention it again because it’s worth repeating, but Washington has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game over the last four weeks to wide receivers, and second-most for the entire 2023 season. Waddle is averaging 8.5 targets per game over the last four weeks, and again, the matchup doesn’t get any better than this. I like Washington to score a bit in this game, so could we possibly get this Miami passing attack in a shootout against this fantasy-friendly Washington defense? It’s certainly in the realm of possibilities!
A healthy Josh Downs had no impact on Pittman’s volume, as he logged at least 12 targets for the third time in the last four weeks. Pittman disappointed earlier this year against Tennessee, but since that game against their divisional foe, Pittman has averaged 7.5 receptions on 10.8 targets for 81.2 yards per game! He should feast on Kristian Fulton, who has struggled in recent weeks to say the least, and from a statistical and fantasy perspective, the Titans have been one of the worst teams against perimeter receivers all season long. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to receivers this season, and the 11th-most yards over the last four weeks.
Could we see a lower-owned Thielen in DFS this week after last week’s poor fantasy outing? Maybe, but at this point, everyone should know to target the Bucs through the air. This defense is vulnerable at multiple spots in the secondary, and the passing volume should be there for Carolina in this one. Tampa Bay has allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers over the last four weeks, as well as the fourth-most fantasy points per game during that span. Furthermore, the Bucs have been one of the most generous defenses to slot receivers in 2023! If you feel compelled to have a share of the Carolina pass attack this week, but don’t want to pay for Thielen, continue reading for a value play from the Carolina receiving room.
NFL DFS WR Value Picks
The team’s bye week allowed Downs to get healthy, and the return of his health also returned his healthy target share he was seeing prior to dealing with knee ailment. In the last four games Downs has played at least 65 percent of the snaps, he’s received 13, nine, six, and eight targets in those games. He now draws a great matchup against a weak Tennessee secondary that he already beat for 97 yards and double-digit fantasy points! I don’t expect the rushing attack to be as good for Indy in this game as it was in the earlier game against the Titans, leading to more passing volume for Gardner Minshew, Michael Pittman, and Downs.
Courtland Sutton has been better in recent weeks and overall this season, I get that. However, it’s Jeudy who will have the best matchup on the field for the Denver passing attack. If you watch the Texans game against Jacksonville, as well as some games prior to that, you’ll see that teams are targeting Tavierre Thomas more frequently, and especially last week. The Texans have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to wideouts over the last four weeks, and Tavierre Thomas has allowed 14 of 18 targets to be caught for 169 yards and a 124.3 passer rating when targeted in slot coverage over the last three weeks, per Pro Football Focus. I’m not saying that Sutton is a bad play this week, but the matchup against Thomas for Jeudy is more advantageous than Sutton taking on Steven Nelson and Derek Stingley
We don’t often find players this cheap when they’ve received at least seven targets in three straight games, but alas, here we are! While the volume has been fine for Moore, the production hasn’t quite been there, as he’s averaged just 4.7 receptions and 49.3 yards per game over the last three weeks. However, you can throw it a bit on the Rams, and I will point out that Moore happens to have four red zone targets over the last three weeks, including two inside the 10-yard line. If Amari Cooper is out or limited, Moore will become even more (Moore?) popular.
Update (12/2): I don't actually hate the move to Joe Flacco for Moore's sake. The two have played together before, and Moore can win in the short passing game.
Here’s your value receiver from Carolina. While I prefer Thielen, if you don’t have the money, you can look at Mingo. Carolina should put an emphasis on the future, and featuring Mingo would make sense, as the team is looking to 2024. Mingo continues to play 90+ percent of the snaps, and he now has six or more targets in three straight games. He’ll play on the perimeter, meaning he should see a good bit of Carlton Davis, which has been a very friendly matchup for fantasy purposes. Tampa Bay has been very generous to wide receivers this season, as mentioned in the Thielen write-up, and with the game script benefitting the Carolina passing attack, Mingo is a logical value option in Week 13.
The Miami stack will be out in full effect this week, so if bringing it back on the other side, I’m looking to Samuel, who should see a lot of Kader Kohou in the slot. Over the last four weeks, Kohou has allowed 83.3 percent of his targets to be caught (15-of-18), not to mention two touchdowns and a 127.8 passer rating when targeted, per Pro Football Focus. Samuel had a season-high 12 targets last week against Dallas, and when he’s out there, he’s a lock for 6+ targets. I’ll take my chances with Samuel in the slot, compared to targeting Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard on the outside.
If New England tries to stop Keenan Allen at all costs, Guyton should benefit. I’m not sure if Quentin Johnston is fully in the dog house, but regardless, it has led to Guyton playing in at least 79 percent of the snaps in each of his last two games. Sure, he’s only caught five of 11 targets, but he did score back in Week 10, so there’s some upside going against a Patriots defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to receivers over the last four weeks.
NFL DFS WR Fades
The Browns have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the last four weeks, and while it pains me to say it, Kupp does not warrant any consideration in DFS. I don’t see this game popping off from a scoring perspective, and Kupp hasn’t hit double-digit fantasy points in a game since Week 6. IT’S WEEK 13 NOW! Over the last five weeks, he’s caught just 12 of 30 targets, his ankle(s) are a bit beat up, and the connection with Matthew Stafford has been a bit off, to say the least.