Are you ready to start diving into our NFL DFS Week 9 picks? Amazing how quickly the NFL season flies by but here we are ready to move into the second half. The DFS game continues to shift away from the common man and continues to favor the max-entry players and those who just use whatever lineup the optimizers are popping out, but we continue to fight. Is it an uphill battle? At times, yes. But with everything we offer you here at Fantasy Alarm – DFS positional coaches, WR/CB Match-Up Report, NFL game previews just to name a few – we can continue to play this game and still find ways to be profitable. So let's check in with the latest NFL news, start adding players to the DFS Watch List and finalize the NFL DFS Week 9 picks as the week rolls on.

 

 

One quick note before we dive into our NFL DFS Week 9 picks --

Something to keep in mind as we continue to pull away from cash games and alter the way we build our lineups in order to focus more on single-entry GPP tournaments – we are not going to cash every single week. The reason we made the changes was because cash games have been decimated by the lineup trains and it is becoming more and more difficult to cash there as the pay-lines have take a dramatic spike. Scores that have typically cashed in the past are being squeezed out. 

And before you tell me you're just going to turn to an optimizer because those folks have routinely cashed, remember, they are actually losing money in the long-term. Don't be fooled by them hitting the cash line. Look at the split. In a 100-person contest where the top-50 “double” their money (they do not as they lose roughly 20 cents on the dollar to rake), they aren't actually. In addition to paying the rake, the top-50 is now made up of 65-70 people because they all have the same lineup. The prize pool hasn't changed, which means if you're playing a $2 50/50 and you, you get $1.80 but now take that number and split it up even more because 15-20 more people need to get their cut. It is a losing proposition.

Now with the GPP single-entry tournaments, it can be difficult to cash if you don't find contests that pay out close to 20-percent of the field, but the pay-line to actually cash are now lower than they are in these 50/50 contests. We've seen this now over the last few weeks which is why we are making the switch. But just like any GPP tournament, you've got people taking chances on high-ceiling dart-throws and if they hit and yours don't, you're on the outside looking in. However, when you do cash, you're making more money and that's the important part to remember. You'll go two weeks without cashing but in Week 3, you end up with 7x your investment. Bigger payouts, but less often. 

I know some of you get frustrated when you lose and I get that, but this is the way things go in the DFS world these days. We had our time when we could bolster our bankroll with cash games and have fun chasing GPP tournament prizes. Now it's all about the chase and that makes it a riskier proposition. Accept the risks and we can move forward, but if you don't have the discretionary funds, then maybe still to smaller prop betting because the DFS contests, while not “rigged” are working against you each week.

OK, lecture over. Now, let's put a bow on our week last week and show you what the optimal lineups were had you only used the DFS Playbook and Dart Board:

Oh what could have been had Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta Falcons not bent us over. Again, just trying to show you what could have been. Yes, some of my Example Lineups may have steered you in a different direction, but that's why you build your own and always use the examples as a sounding board. No one says you should be using them in your contests.

Now let's get to our NFL DFS Week 9 picks for the Watch List.

 

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