The NFL playoffs have reached a fever pitch as we enter the final game of Super Wild Card Weekend on Monday night. Fantasy managers and Underdog users are looking for every advantage to secure a win in this win-or-go-home showdown. This matchup features the Texans' high-powered offense clashing with the Steelers' gritty defense, creating massive value for player projections. We have identified two specific plays that stand out based on recent volume, DVOA data, and favorable game scripts. 

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Aaron Rodgers Underdog NFL Pick: Lower than 204.5 Passing Yards

This number feels low for a Hall of Famer, but the 2025-26 version of the Steelers’ offense—and the defense they are facing—demands a fade. According to the latest DVOA data, the Houston Texans finished the regular season with the #2-ranked defense overall (-19.3%), trailing only Seattle. More importantly for this prop, they rank #2 in Pass Defense DVOA (-18.7%).

Rodgers has averaged just 202.4 passing yards per game during the regular season, operating more as a game manager. Against a secondary that suppresses efficiency this well, yardage will be hard to come by. The Texans' ability to generate pressure without blitzing means Rodgers will likely be forced into quick, short throws that don't accumulate yards quickly. Unless he breaks a long screen pass, 205 yards is a high bar against this unit.

 

 

 

Woody Marks Underdog NFL Pick: Higher than 56.5 Rushing Yards

While the Texans have found a late-season workhorse in rookie Woody Marks, the matchup tonight is undeniably physical. The Steelers finished the regular season with the #6-ranked Rush Defense DVOA (-14.7%), making them one of the toughest units to run against in the league. Marks is unlikely to find wide-open lanes, and his efficiency per carry may be lower than usual.

However, we are backing the volume created by the game script. The Texans' defense is elite, ranking #2 in Rush Defense DVOA (-20.0%). This defensive dominance suggests the Steelers will struggle to sustain drives, handing the ball back to Houston's offense repeatedly with a lead. Even if Marks averages a gritty 3.5 yards per carry against Pittsburgh's stout front, the projected workload of 16-18 carries in a "grind-it-out" win gets him over this total.

 

 

 

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