Four games. That’s all we’ve got this week. But the glass is half full here. Next week we have two. Then we have NONE. And then we have one game - the Super Bowl. So we’ve got to cherish what we have. And I’m diving in full force, basically covering every viable option this week. My favorites in each tier are in the title, but here are the guys we like at tight end in DFS and the guys we are fading. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Top Tier Pick For Divisional Round

Colston Loveland TE Chicago Bears - DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $6,000

Sometimes you just need to ride the wave. It took a little bit for the rookie tight end to get fully ramped up and comfortable. But, at this stage, there’s really no reason to put Loveland back in the bottle. He’s gotten double-digit targets in three straight games, including a 15-target game last week in the win vs. Green Bay. The Los Angeles Rams are a tough matchup, but Loveland is easily the highest upside option remaining. 

Dalton Kincaid TE Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $4,300 | FanDuel: $5,400

Dalton Kincaid has been an extremely frustrating player. Whether he’s banged up or not, this guy has simply not been a full-time player. He’s actually only played more than 50% of the snaps in three games this year and never more than 55%. And those three games were weeks one, three, and five.

That said, he’s been great when he is out there. His 2.73 yards per route lead all tight ends by a wide margin (obviously partially because his route runs are so low). Last week, he at least got back up to a 44% snap share, and the Bills are expected to have to lean on him here. They will be without Tyrell Shavers, Gabe Davis, and Joshua Palmer. So we’ll mix Kincaid in there. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks For NFL Divisional Round

Dalton Schultz TE Houston Texans - DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $5,300

Dalton Schultz is a solid cash game play. He doesn’t have special athleticism, which holds him back from big YAC numbers. But he virtually always gets 3-4 targets minimum and is capable of getting 8-9 under the right conditions. And any tight end that runs 60%+ of the routes can give us a two-TD game at any point.

The Patriots under Vrabel have also gone back to a “bend, don’t break” philosophy. Guys like Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger, who roamed the box and made TE life difficult, are now gone. So you I wouldn’t be surprised to see a dink and dunk game for Schultz. 

AJ Barner TE Seattle Seahawks - DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $5,100

If Elijah Arroyo were activated, we’d be off Barner. But it’s already decided that he will stay on the IR for the divisional round. The 49ers not only lost Fred Warner but also lost Tatum Bethune, his backup. That has seen them pick up Eric Kendricks from free agency, who is still decent in the run game but has struggled in coverage. So Barner is on the table for us this week as he’s found the endzone a couple of times.s 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Value Picks For NFL Divisional Round

Terrance Ferguson Jr. TE Los Angeles Chargers - DraftKings: $2,700 | FanDuel: $4,600

This is the wild card play for us. Last week, Terrance Ferguson was inactive against the Panthers with a hamstring injury, which should take him off a lot of folks' radars for this game. But he already practiced fully, and I expect him to be out there. The Rams have deployed a big rotation of guys like Ferguson, Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen. And we like Ferg as the sneaky contrarian play.

The reality is that no one is getting enough work to get it done on the target volume alone. Touchdowns will determine if a Ram tight end is worthy. And Terrance Ferguson, despite not leading the team in routes, is the guy they use for deep shots. He actually has an 18.3 yard aDot which leads all tight ends with at least 15 targets by a wide margin (the next closest is Darren Waller with 11.9). The combination of that, his low price, and his low ownership makes him out-pick. 

Austin Hooper TE New England Patriots - DraftKings: $2,500 | FanDuel: $4,200

There is one bare minimum-priced play we’ll consider this week. And that’s Austin Hooper. The Patriots always use two tight end sets, and Hooper consistently runs double-digit routes every week. With a focus on Hunter Henry, Hooper could sneak out for a couple here. We’re really just fishing for a touchdown in this price range, but Hooper actually would have scored one last week had Drake Maye not made a rare overthrow on the wide-open corner route. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Fades For Divisional Round

Hunter Henry TE Houston Texans - DraftKings: $4,500 | FanDuel: $5,500

We’ve always been big Hunter Henry fans - he’s been one of our more reliable cash game plays this year. But this Texans matchup is one of the “big three” along with the Bills and Eagles. The over/under for this game is the lowest of the week by far and the Texans are very likely to focus on Henry and Stefon Diggs. So we’ll shy away from our guy for this week. If he gets the Bills next week, we’ll probably be off him as well. 

Evan Engram TE Denver Broncos- DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $6,300

Another one of my all-time favorite fantasy tight ends. But we can’t be biased in DFS. And, as we mentioned, the Bills are a terrible matchup for tight ends. Sean Payton has always had a mindset to try to get his best guys on your worst guys. Well, in this case, Engram hasn’t been their best guy, and Matt Milano is one of the Bills' best cover guys. So it’s not a good spot. 

Jake Tonges TE San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $5,800

With so few games, we are basically just dividing everyone into players we are using and players we are not using. The surface value numbers might suggest that the Seahawks are a good matchup for tight ends, but a huge portion of those points were scored when Julian Love was hurt. With him back opposite stud rookie Nick Emanwori, this is no longer a good tight end matchup.