Need the best Splash Picks NFL picks today? The Lions and Bills both enter 1-0 for a Thursday night showdown that also doubles as the regular-season debut of Buffalo's new Highmark Stadium. Below, we cover our favorite Splash Picks NFL picks for this Week 2 matchup, backed by player projections and the key matchups shaping each pick.

Lions vs. Bills: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Both of these teams opened the season in dramatic fashion, with Buffalo escaping Houston 36-31 and Detroit needing overtime to beat New Orleans 31-30. The last time these two met, back in December 2024, they combined for 90 points in a 48-42 Bills win, and the number on this one, 54.5, suggests the market expects more fireworks. Buffalo is currently a 4.5-point home favorite. Let's break down the Splash Picks plays we like most for this matchup.

 

 

 

Best Splash Picks NFL Picks for TNF, Week 2

DJ Moore NFL Splash Picks Pick: Higher 4.5 Receptions

It didn't take long for DJ Moore to establish himself in Buffalo, catching 5 of a team-high 8 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown in his Bills debut against Houston, capped by a 43-yard score. Reuniting with head coach Joe Brady, who got two 1,000-yard seasons out of him in Carolina, Moore looked fully in sync with Josh Allen right out of the gate. He was banged up briefly late in the game but stayed in and finished, and nothing suggests he's at risk for Thursday. Coming off that kind of target share in his first game with this offense, clearing 4.5 receptions again feels like a safe follow-up.

Jared Goff NFL Splash Picks Pick: Lower 35.5 Pass Attempts

The Lions showed exactly where their offensive identity is headed in Week 1, riding Jahmyr Gibbs to a career-high 29 carries and 186 yards from scrimmage, with Dan Campbell insisting afterward that his bell cow back still has more to give. With David Montgomery traded to Houston and new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing building around Gibbs, Detroit has every reason to keep feeding the ground game rather than letting Goff approach 40 attempts the way he did in last week's overtime win. That kind of run-first approach should translate into fewer drop-backs for Goff this time around. Staying under 35.5 pass attempts fits the direction this offense is trending.

Splash Picks NFL Player Projections for Lions vs. Bills

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Moore and Goff as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Splash Picks pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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