We put a bow on a very exciting Wild Card Round with the latest Texans vs. Steelers DFS picks just a week after the Steelers won the AFC North in an exciting game against the Baltimore Ravens. A lot will be made about the Steelers record on Monday Night Football especially playing at home.

But they’ll have their hands full with the Houston Texans who enter this matchup as the rightful favorites and they boast one of the best defenses in the league. The Wild Card Round games have delivered plenty of excitement and it’s possible this one carries that momentum Monday night. Here are the Texans vs. Steelers DFS picks for our Monday Night Football Showdown contests on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Texans vs. Steelers DFS Picks & Preview: Monday Night Football, 1/12

The NFL Wild Card Round has delivered some great games this weekend and if we can close it out with another great game then that’s a win for everyone. The Houston Texans visit the Pittsburgh Steelers to close out this weekend’s action and this game was probably off everyone’s radar for DFS. The game will be outside in borderline freezing conditions. And we have a pair of great defenses in this matchup.

The Houston Texans come into this matchup riding a nine-game winning streak after losing five of their first eight games. They’ve gotten this far on the backs of their defense. It’s an explosive group featuring one of the best pass rushers in the league in Will Anderson Jr. and they have a premiere, shutdown defensive back with Derek Stingley Houston allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.4) and the second-fewest yards per game (279.1) so they’re a formidable problem for all offenses.

On the other side of the ball we have the Pittsburgh Steelers, winners of the AFC North. It was certainly a bit of a down year for the division but alas, you can never count this team out. Even with Aaron Rodgers past his prime, Mike Tomlin allegedly on the hot seat, and with untimely injuries and personnel suspensions late in the year, this team willed its way to the playoffs with a huge win over the Baltimore Ravens last week. All week long there’s been a strong narrative about Pittsburgh’s success on Monday Night Football. This organization has won 23 straight games at home on Monday Night Football and overall they’re 32-5 at home on Monday Night Football. With the Texans coming to town, is that record finally in serious jeopardy?

This game could be tight for all four quarters and even if it’s low scoring, there’s still money to be made. Here are the latest Texans vs. Steelers DFS picks for Monday Night Football!

 

 

 

Texans vs. Steelers MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Texans -3 (-102)
    • Steelers +3 (-118)
  • Money Line:
    • Texans (-155)
    • Steelers (+130)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 38.5 (-105)
    • Under 38.5 (-115)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Texans -3 (-105)
    • Steelers +3 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Texans (-162)
    • Steelers (+136)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 38.5 (-105)
    • Under 38.5 (-115)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Texans vs. Steelers MNF, January 12th

Temperatures will start right around 34 degrees and with winds of 10 miles per hour, it’s very likely the conditions feel like freezing temps. But it’s very unlikely we see any rain in this matchup so despite the cold, the conditions aren’t too bad. But it’s still an advantage for the Steelers at home considering the Texans play in a controlled environment.

 

Texans vs. Steelers Injuries: Monday Night Football Wild Card Round

As of Sunday morning, the Texans have only ruled out backup running back Jawhar Jordan. Defensive backs Jaylen Reed and Ajani Carter are listed as questionable, but both practiced in full Thursday and Friday. Overall, there are no huge injuries or players to be concerned with. But we should monitor the inactives 90 minutes before kickoff in case there are healthy scratches or surprise inactives.

The same applies for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The only player with a designation heading into our MNF DFS picks is Isaiahh Loudermilk who has been ruled out. But again keep an eye out for inactives on Monday just to be safe.

 

 

 

NFL Monday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans - DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $13,000

Collins is an obvious pick for our Texans vs. Steelers DFS picks. As Howard noted in the NFL DFS Playbook for the Wild Card Round, the Steelers play man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league and Collins averages a near 29% target share and 0.60 fantasy points per route run against man coverage and he’s top five at the wide receiver position in yards per route run against man as well.

Collins finished with just 14 catches over his last four games, but the volume will be there in this matchup and I find it hard to believe the Texans win this game without a big contribution from him. Collins sat out Week 18 but in seven of his previous eight games he recorded at least one receptions of 23+ yards so the big play upside is obviously there and he makes contested catches.

Over his last four postseason games, Collins has totaled 23 receptions for 367 yards and a pair of touchdowns while averaging over eight targets per game. He’ll be a popular play at Captain but he’s the clear WR1 on his offense in a great matchup.

DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers - DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $11,600

Metcalf is the kind of Captain recommendation where you can either play him at Captain or don’t play him at all. There’s variance but we saw him come on very strong down the stretch prior to his two-game suspension. Metcalf clearly operates as the team’s WR1 when he’s active but he’ll have his hands full on Monday.

Metcalf is likely to draw Derek Stingley who was named First-Team All-Pro for the second straight season. Drawing the Stingley coverage hasn’t gone well for a lot of WR1’s throughout the season. Stingley saw 95 targets in 2024 and that number dropped to just 65 this past season. Opposing offenses know he’s a menace on defense so not many targets go his way, and that could be hazardous for Metcalf. So again, we either play him at Captain or perhaps look elsewhere and give him no consideration as a Flex option.

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $9,200

Using Gainwell at Captain worked out for us on Sunday Night Football in Week 18 against the Baltimore Ravens. I’m going right back to the well here because I do love Gainwell in just about any game script the Steelers find themselves in.

Both Gainwell and Jaylen Warren will have their hands full on the ground. The Texans allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards on the year (93.7 rushing yards per game) and they allowed 2nd-fewest yards before contact per attempt in the league (0.83). 

But we also know the Steelers get their running backs involved in the passing game. Warren will likely handle more carries on the ground. But Gainwell has proven to be the better pass catching option out of the backfield. He finished with 73 receptions on 85 targets as a running back and he returned 16+ fantasy points in four of his final five games to close out of the regular season. It’s a bit risky but as a running back that could see seven or more targets, he's in play for our Texans vs. Steelers DFS picks.

 

 

 

NFL Monday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,600

A lot of the same arguments we applied to Kenneth Gainwell can apply to Jaylen Warren and there are some pro’s to going Warren over Gainwell. Volume is certainly in Warren’s favor as he finished the season with at least 12 carries in each of the team’s last four games. He does have some pass catching upside as we saw in Week 18 when he had five receptions. But Gainwell is the safer bet to catch passes out of the backfield.

This is obviously a very difficult matchup for the Pittsburgh backfield as we already noted how good the Texans are at defending the run. But to Warren’s credit he led all running backs in forced missed tackle rate (30.6%) and yards after catch per reception (11.0) so there’s obviously some reason to be optimistic about both of Pittsburgh’s running backs.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $5,800

If there’s one way to attack the Steelers defense, it’s potentially across the middle of the field. As Howard noted in this week’s NFL DFS Playbook, the Steelers are 22nd in DVOA against the tight end position, allowing an average of six receptions for 65 yards on a per game basis. They allowed the third-most fantasy points to the tight end position, so Schultz jumps off the page as a strong play for our MNF DFS picks.

However, this position is still dependent on touchdowns. Even Schultz only found the end zone on three occasions this year and the sportsbooks aren’t projecting a ton of scoring for this game. I do still believe at this price tag he can take advantage of this matchup to deliver enough production and be a solid flex contributor for our NFL DFS Showdown lineups.

 

 

 

NFL Monday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Play

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,600

I did struggle with where I wanted to place Stroud for our Texans vs. Steelers DFS picks. Obviously, quarterbacks are relatively safe for fantasy points because they touch the ball consistently. Stroud also only hit the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings just once this season in 14 games. He also only threw for 19 touchdowns and had eight interceptions.

The Steelers look like a good matchup on paper and DFS players will be drawn to Stroud because of the green ‘27th’ on DraftKings signifying an “easy” matchup. Now to be fair, they did allow 244.9 yards per game (29th in the NFL) and opposing quarterbacks attempted 36.1 passes per game, which also ranked 29th in the NFL.

But Pittsburgh’s pass rush, which we’ll get to at the bottom of the article, is really thriving at the right time and they’re more proactive as we head into the playoffs. This game had the lowest implied total on the six-game slate this weekend and that may not bode well with regard to paying up for QB’s on this slate.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $12,000

This is probably the first NFL DFS Showdown Playbook I’ve published this year that didn’t have at least one quarterback in the Captain/MVP section or as a Core Play. But that is the case for our Texans vs. Steelers DFS picks. Both Stroud and Rodgers are priced up, but the matchups are tough. If they’re only returning 15-17 fantasy points, then I’m not inclined to try and force both players into my lineup(s), but we probably do want at least one quarterback in our builds.

Aaron Rodgers had a fine season for Pittsburgh and the Steelers have made it known that if he were to play one more year, they’d like to have him back. He wasn’t elite as he ranked 32nd in average depth of target (6.5) and he was 26th in completion percentage over expected (-0.4%). But he did just enough to get this team another AFC North division title. 

Even last week in the Week 18 matchup to decide the division winner, he came up just shy of 300 yards passing but he added 20 yards on the ground. We can go forward operating as if this could be his last game, in which case he may elevate his level of play. But it is a tough matchup as the Texans defense is complete from top-to-bottom.

Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $8,400

Higgins is a boom-or-bust option for our Texans vs. Steelers DFS picks, but he did find the end zone in Weeks 17 and 18. Volume is hard to trust, however. He saw five or fewer targets in his last six games of the season and he didn’t hit the 100-yard mark for the bonus on DraftKings. In fact, he never even recorded 90 receiving yards in a game this season.

But just because it didn’t happen this year doesn’t entirely mean it can’t happen Monday night. He’s the kind of young receiving prospect that could have a breakout game similar to Jalen Coker on Saturday. The Steelers ranked 21st in explosive play rate allowed (13.8%) so that’s a positive for both Higgins and Collins. You can save salary and get a better floor potentially with Dalton Schultz, but Higgins has quite the ceiling if the Steelers are giving extra attention to Nico Collins.

 

 

 

NFL Monday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $5,000 | FanDuel: $7,200

The price isn’t great but when we dip into the value tier for our MNF DFS picks, we don’t have many strong conviction plays on either side. The Steelers do seem a bit more destined to throw more especially if they find themselves in a trailing game script. Freiermuth isn’t great but it feels like he’ll get five targets and he can turn those into 40+ receiving yards. If he can find the end zone, then we’re cooking with gas but he hasn’t scored since Week 12.

Calvin Austin, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $8,200

Austin missed Week 17 but came back huge last week with three receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. You can also consider Marquez Valdes-Scantling while saving some salary but MVS may lose reps with Metcalf back. And the same could be said for Austin, as he hasn’t made much noise unless he’s finding the end zone. But Pittsburgh could be throwing plenty and Metcalf draws a difficult matchup against Stingley.

Scotty Miller, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $2,800

It’s not pretty but the Steelers have played three meaningful games heading into the playoffs and Miller saw a dozen targets across those three games and he’s incredibly cheap. If you need to punt for some salary relief, Miller is viable.

The Texans will give DK Metcalf plenty of attention which can open things up for literally any other pass catcher on Pittsburgh. Miller really only needs a couple catches with decent yardage and he’ll be giving you at least some value as a player who won’t cost you very much.

 

 

 

MNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Among the six Wild Card Round games, this one had the lowest implied total of them all and as of Sunday we’re looking at a 38.5-point implied total. It’s not great but this game is outdoors in Western Pennsylvania in January.

We’ll start with the Texans D/ST. Organically, they have just a natural pass rush led by Will Anderson Jr. On the season they only ranked 22nd in blitz rate (22.2%) per Sam Hoppen but they were 4th in non-blitz pressure rate (35.1%), 4th in overall pressure rate (36.0%), and that led to ranking 8th in sack rate (7.6%). In 12 games following their Bye week they forced 23 turnovers and had four defensive/special teams touchdowns. Sometimes we see D/ST’s priced up into the $6K range and I’m surprised the Texans didn’t get that treatment for this game. But the Steelers offensive line might be able to do just enough to keep Aaron Rodgers upright as they ranked 1st in pressure rate allowed (21.6%) and 4th in pass rush win rate (71%).

On DraftKings, the Steelers D/ST is $1,000 cheaper than Houston and they’re flying way under the radar for this matchup. According to Sam Hoppen, the Steelers had a 40.3% pressure rate over the last month of the regular season and the Texans had a pass rush win rate of 56% over the course of the season which ranked 30th in the NFL. We’ll get an ownership discount on Pittsburgh’s defense, which is very much in play especially if they’re going to send the blitz. C.J. Stroud touted a -0.27 EPA per dropback while facing pressure this season.

We don’t have the greatest game script to work with but I do give slight preference to the D/ST’s over the kickers for this matchup. I’m not fading either kicker, but the temperatures will be borderline freezing when you account for the mild winds.

Chris Boswell is a tough sell as the more expensive kicker. If there’s a game script where the Texans do limit the Pittsburgh offense, then Boswell may not get many opportunities. But he’s made at least two field goals in four of his last five games. However, in three of his last seven games he’s made zero field goals. Tread carefully, but he’s best used in contrarian Pittsburgh stacks.

Ka’imi Fairbairn was a tremendous fantasy football asset this season. And it’s surprising he’s the cheaper of the two kickers because the matchup never seemed to matter; he was getting volume no matter what. He averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game this season. He attempted at least two field goals attempts in every game he appeared in. 25 of his 44 made field goals came from 40+ yards out. I’m not really sure what else needs to be said about this play but he’s obviously in play because it’s so rare that we see a kicker this consistent and he won’t cost you very much.

And I cannot even believe I’m going this route, but he’s a kicker who returned 18+ fantasy points on four occasions this season. Even in Week 18 he put up 26 fantasy points. If he’s getting volume and you want to get a little weird building out multiple lineups, then Fairbairn can be considered a cheap Captain option for a minority of your entries.

 

 

 

Texans vs. Steelers DFS Player Pool: MNF, 1/12

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