After we’ve taken in two Saturday games and another full allotment of NFL Sunday games, we will be treated to a Sunday Night Football matchup between playoff contenders out of the AFC: the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens. These two teams are no strangers to playing each other in primetime spots and perhaps it’s a potential playoff preview.

The Ravens enter Week 16 needing a win to inch closer to the playoff picture, but they’ve won six of their last eight games to scratch and claw their way back to 7-7. The New England Patriots had their 10-game winning streak snapped last week at home against the Buffalo Bills after jumping out to a 21-0 lead early on. Perhaps the lesson they take from that game is to not let up and take your foot off the gas against good teams. Maybe they can apply that lesson to this matchup for our SNF DFS picks. Let’s look at the matchups and preview the latest Sunday Night Football matchup with our Patriots vs. Ravens DFS picks!

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Ravens DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 12/21

After a stellar winning streak, the Patriots came out of the Bye week and took a loss to their division rivals, the Buffalo Bills. New England had fresh legs and jumped out to a 21-0 lead. But they learned the hard way that you cannot let good opponents back into games. The Bills offense got aggressive and New England was scrambling to make adjustments and they let the Bills walk out of Foxborough with the win.

But New England still controls their own destiny in the AFC East. They currently still have the lead over the Bills and can win the division if they stay the course. But this matchup on Sunday Night Football is a challenging one against the Baltimore Ravens. Are the Ravens as dominant as we’ve seen in recent years? No, they lost Lamar Jackson for a handful of games this year and are only at 7-7 with a better chance at winning the division, and getting a home game in the playoffs, than earning a Wild Card spot.

The Ravens have been a tough team to read all season long. They had that memorable shootout in Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills where they blew a 34-19 lead with 1:09 to go in the third quarter. They started 1-5 and then won five straight games. They now sit at 7-7 and have a pulse for the playoffs. They’re coming off a shutout victory over the Bengals and have some momentum as they make a push to win the AFC North for the third straight year. But they likely need some help if they want to get into the playoffs. A win against the New England Patriots in primetime would certainly go a long way. So let’s dig into the latest Patriots vs. Ravens DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for Sunday Night Football!

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Ravens SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Patriots +3 (-105)
    • Ravens -3 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Patriots (+142)
    • Ravens (-170)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 48.5 (-115)
    • Under 48.5 (-105)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Patriots +3 (-115)
    • Ravens -3 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Patriots (+136)
    • Ravens (-162)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 48.5 (-105)
    • Under 48.5 (-115)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Patriots vs. Ravens SNF, December 21st

There aren’t many weather “elements” to be concerned about with our Patriots vs. Ravens DFS picks. However, it is Baltimore in December so it’ll be a bit cold. Temperatures will start around 36 degrees at kickoff and drop to just below freezing as this game finishes up. So it’s cold but it’s nothing these grown men can’t handle playing outside in primetime.

 

Patriots vs. Ravens Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 16

The injury reports for both teams aren’t necessarily filled with fantasy-relevant skill position players but we still have some names that could make or break some defensive efforts Sunday night. The Patriots are in rough shape as Robert Spillane has already been ruled out. We’re also monitoring the status of Christian Barmore, Carllton Davis III, Marcus Jones, and Harold Landry as all four players are listed as questionable.

The Baltimore Ravens lost Teddye Buchanan to a torn ACL last week and that’s actually a rather significant loss defensively for this team. Additionally, Chidobe Awuzie is doubtful with a foot injury he sustained in last week’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Kyle Hamilton and John Jenkins are also listed as questionable while Jay Higgins has been ruled out. On offense it looks as if All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley is questionable as well.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $12,600

We’ve been getting more of the “floor” performances from Maye of late but those are still good enough where if that’s what we’re going to get then we’re not dead in the water and can still possibly min cash with the correct flex plays.

On the year he’s still completing 70.9% of his pass attempts and he put the rushing upside on full display last week with 43 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Perhaps the one knock on Maye is that he hasn’t thrown for 300 yards yet in his career, but that’s coming in due time.

The matchup against this Ravens defense isn’t as good as it probably would have been earlier in the year, and his offensive line is still rather beat up which puts him at risk at times like we saw last week. The passing results were a bit of a dud a week ago but there were more elements in play last week than he’ll see Sunday night.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $13,000

This really isn’t the greatest matchup on paper but at the end of the day, of all the skill position players on the slate, he’s probably the one with the best chance to touch the ball 20+ times. Henry doesn’t have much involvement in the passing game so if he’s going to be optimal at Captain, he likely needs 100+ yards and multiple scores.

And that may be a bit of a tough ask because the Patriots run defense has been pretty tough all year allowing just 95.1 yards per game on the ground. But over their last three games that number has inflated to 133. A week ago the Patriots allowed James Cook to rush for over 100+ yards and score three times while the Bills largely played catch up after trailing 21-0. The Ravens are in must-win territory with this matchup and will need King Henry in primetime.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $11,400

There’s a little variance here, but we can lean into that on a Showdown slate. In three of his last five games, Henderson has popped for 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings. He has seven touchdowns in that span, a pair of 100-yard bonuses on DK, and he’s mixing in involvement in the passing game. Over those five games he’s averaging nearly 6.3 yards per carry with an 8% explosive play rate per Dataroma.

The return of Rhamondre Stevenson really hasn’t hurt his fantasy stock all that much. In three games with Stevenson back, Henderson is seeing a 63.2% rush rate and he’s had four goal line rushes as well. This is potentially the kind of up-tempo game where the Patriots offense will need their best players with upside. We just saw Henderson break of a pair of touchdown runs that went for 50+ yards a week ago. He’s the RB1 in this backfield with a great ceiling making him a great option at Captain for our SNF DFS picks.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $12,200

It’s not easy leaving Lamar outside the Captain/MVP discussion up above. But the more recent trends and performances aren’t indicative of an optimal Captain. Good flex play? Absolutely. But I’ve noted in some of the Discord channels of late that he hasn’t quite passed the eyeball test. He’s a bit more limited and maybe playing through some nagging pains.

In five games from Weeks 10-14, he didn’t complete 60% of his passes. And even last week, when he completed 66% of his pass attempts, he only had a dozen attempts total as the game was easily in hand for Baltimore. Overall, in his last six games, he has four touchdown passes, five interceptions, and five fumbles (two lost). And normally we could hang our hat on the fact that he has rushing upside but in four of his last six games he’s been limited to under 30 rushing yards so he isn’t supplementing the fantasy production on the ground like we’re used to.

Now there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about Lamar for our SNF DFS picks. Last week, Josh Allen was able to throw three touchdowns against this defense while rushing for nearly 50 yards. Both Alllen and Jackson are MVP caliber players. And this is a game the Ravens must win whether they want to improve their chances at the AFC North crown or earn a Wild Card spot. So tread carefully and trust your own intuition. I am personally going to proceed with caution here.

Mack Hollins, WR, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $7,800

It’s always a challenge trying to feel good about any New England pass catcher as a core play for DFS. There are some things working in Hollins’ favor for this matchup. For starters, he’s played 75% of the offensive snaps in each of New England’s last five games. Last week he may have had a modest stat line, but he registered 136 air yards which was top 10 among all receivers in Week 15.

The Ravens are also better at defending slot receivers as nearly 70% of the fantasy points allowed by Baltimore have gone to perimeter receivers and Hollins lines up out wide on roughly 77% of his routes.

The overall targets may fluctuate anywhere from four or five to as many as 10 but he’s on the field plenty and not exactly the biggest name the Baltimore secondary likely wants to account for. At this price, I like Hollins to pay off his price tag.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,200

Flowers got bailed out in Week 15 because of a 28-yard touchdown reception. And saying he had a 41.6% target share last week is very misleading because Lamar Jackson attempted just 12 passes. Flowers is an incredibly talented player. When the ball is in his hands, he can make plays on his own and generate yards after the catch.

Unfortunately, Flowers and the next receiver we’ll get to, while pricy, are not lineup locks in my opinion. Flowers’ biggest game of the season came in Week 1 where he went off for 143 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions. Since then, he only has one other touchdown and one other 100-yard game. He also normally floats between five-and-seven targets each week so it’s not like he’s a volume hog.

But as we mentioned earlier in the article, and as we’ll get to in the D/ST section, the Patriots are really hurting defensively. They could be missing as many as five starters on defense for this game so if Flowers gets into the open field then he can break the slate on his own, which is why I am entertained about the prospect of playing him at Captain. But he has just three games all season with 15+ fantasy points per DraftKings scoring so we should temper expectations a bit.

Stefon Diggs, WR, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $9,400

We should be honest with ourselves here… This pricing doesn’t make a lick of sense. And I’m a Patriots fan. I like Diggs. But I also know I can’t let too much bias stand in the way of analyzing this game. Diggs could certainly be a candidate we fade. Last week he had a route share of just 58.6% and do we really want to pay these prices on DraftKings and FanDuel for a skill position player that’s not touting at least a 70% route rate? According to Dataroma, Diggs now has three straight games where his route rate has been under 60%. Moreover, his target share has been under 14% in four of his last six games and under 50 receiving yards in five of his last six games.

Now this is a pretty big game for the Patriots and maybe New England realizes they should be getting Diggs more involved to preserve their AFC East lead. It’s also possible they’re aware of the tread on his legs and want to preserve him for the playoffs. While I know he’s a bad play on paper, the game script does call for New England’s best players to step up. For some DraftKings Pick6 strategies, I’ll be taking the under on his receiving yardage prop.

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $7,200

It’s truly not a great matchup, but when we examine some more expensive options among the New England pass catchers like Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte, we at least know Henry is on the field for a good amount of snaps and routes. New England tends to spread the ball around among the wide receivers and it’s tough to gauge at times who will be the flavor of the week.

At least with Henry he’s cheaper than the two players we just mentioned. And while the Ravens are a tough matchup on paper against tight ends, the Ravens did lose Teddye Buchanan for the season. Henry is the kind of play that stays on the field and can generate production with six targets so based on pricing I prefer him over Diggs who has been losing routes of late.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $7,000

Don’t forget that Mack Hollins is an additional value suggestion but he’s up in the core plays section for our SNF DFS picks. But if you can’t afford him then Likely might be the next best option. While Mark Andrews is also in consideration, I just feel better taking the discount with Likely.

He didn’t get a single target a week ago in a matchup where he should’ve smashed but in the end the goose egg killed plenty of DFS lineups across the board. The Patriots grade out as a top five matchup for opposing tight ends and Likely did have six targets in Weeks 13 and 14 before last week’s dud. I’m not anticipating another bummer of a performance as the Patriots should show more life than the Bengals this week.

Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $4,000

Just as a point-per-dollar kind of play, Keaton Mitchell has been getting more work and can pay off his price tag with the kind of production he’s provided of late. Would it help if he found the end zone? Certainly, but he’s rushed for 142 yards on just 14 carries in his last two games. That kind of efficiency is probably unsustainable, but they do seem willing to give him more work.

Derrick Henry had a 58% rush share in Week 15 while Mitchell was at 42%. Granted, that may have been game scripted because the Cincinnati Bengals were not very competitive. But we don’t often feel good about running backs priced this low getting enough work to pay off the price tag so I’m happy to get some exposure here. If you need more savings, you can also roll with Rasheen Ali who has been getting more reps on third down passing situations.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

The defenses are discounted for this matchup and both offenses are projected to put up points. The Ravens are only favored by a field goal, so it’s expected to be a close game as well. The Patriots have scored 23+ points in 11 straight games and on the season the offense is averaging 27.3 points per game so the implied projection for New England seems a bit low. But they are on the road against a defense playing better than they did the first half of the season and they just shut out the Cincinnati Bengals last week.

The Ravens suffered a big loss defensively after rookie linebacker Teddye Buchanan, who was second on the team in tackles behind Roquan Smith, tore his ACL on Sunday so that’s a significant loss for this defense after he emerged as a highly productive player in his first NFL season.

But the Patriots are similarly dealing with some injuries defensively as we’ve already touched on Robert Spillane being ruled out and New England also has four other starters on defense that are questionable. And keep in mind, Milton Williams still isn’t eligible to come off IR. So given the injuries and the upside of these offenses, I’m not very high on either D/ST so I’d rather pay up for the kickers.

And as we’ve seen this season, the kickers are going to cost you at least $1,000+ in comparison to the D/ST’s on this slate. We can start with Andy Borregales who is the antithesis of what I normally look for in a kicker. He certainly gets plenty of volume, but I don’t like that he doesn’t have many conversions from range. He’s made just eight kicks from 40+ yards out this season. And that’s not to say he’s inaccurate or bad because he’s converted on 24-of-27 attempts this year. But it does tell me that the Patriots offense is good at moving the ball down field but struggle in the red zone.

Both Borregales and Tyler Loop have 3+ games with double-digit fantasy points since Week 10. Borregales has three while Loop has four, but Borregales was on Bye in Week 14. Loop has actually made at least three field goals in five of his last eight games since Baltimore’s Bye week so these are two kickers that may provide a better floor than the defenses in this matchup although the Ravens have been a far better matchup for kickers when it comes to fantasy football and DFS. Slight upgrade to Borregales, and this game doesn’t feel like either team will be forced to abandon the kicking game due to a blowout.

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Ravens DFS Player Pool: SNF, 12/21

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