We close out another NFL Sunday with an exciting matchup out of the AFC East as the New England Patriots head to upstate New York to take on the Buffalo Bills. These two teams sit atop the division and a surprise win for New England would pull them within a game of the Bills for the lead.

That’s a big ask of the Patriots, however. Given the struggles of the Baltimore Ravens and the 2-2 start for the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills look like the best team in the conference. The Super Bowl aspirations are alive and well in Orchard Park, New York. This game has potential shootout written all over it with one of the highest implied totals of all 14 games in Week 5. Let’s dive into the latest NFL DFS Showdown Playbook with our Patriots vs. Bills DFS picks!

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Bills DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 10/5

Normally the NFL waits until the holiday season to match these two AFC East rivals up but Christmas came early as we get to close out Sunday’s action with the Patriots visiting the Bills for this primetime affair.

The hometown Buffalo Bills are just a fine-tuned machine at this point. They sit atop the AFC as the lone undefeated team in the conference and it does feel like the road to the Super Bowl will be running through Buffalo once we get to January and the playoffs.

The Bills offense once again runs primarily through Josh Allen and James Cook. Through four games the two have combined for eight rushing touchdowns and Allen has added seven more touchdowns through the air. They’re also leading the league in average time of possession (34:04) so they’re an absolute menace to deal with on both sides of the ball, and this defense will only get healthier as the season progresses.

The Patriots make their way to Orchard Park and sit at 2-2 in the first year of Mike Vrabel’s tenure as head coach with the organization. In their wins the offense has looked great. In their losses, however, mistakes have reared their ugly head. Drake Maye is still prone to some questionable decisions with the ball at times. Five costly turnovers in Week 3 cost them a win against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Even in Week 1, the team was slow out of the gates against the Las Vegas Raiders.

There have been plenty of bright moments through the first month for New England’s football team and they should only continue to get better as they hit their stride in the hopes of making the playoffs. Even pulling off a stunning win would get them to within a game of Buffalo for the division lead. We’ve already seen one massive road underdog get the win in primetime in Week 5. Can the Patriots do the same? Let’s break down the top Patriots vs. Bills DFS picks for Sunday Night Football!

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Bills SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Patriots +8.5 (-115)
    • Bills -8.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Patriots (+330)
    • Bills (-425)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 49.5 (-115)
    • Under 49.5 (-105)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Patriots +8.5 (-112)
    • Bills -8.5 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Patriots (+320)
    • Bills (-405)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 49.5 (-110)
    • Under 49.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Patriots vs. Bills SNF, October 5th

The calendar has turned to fall and it will be somewhat chillier in Buffalo. However, the conditions will still be perfect for an AFC East showdown. We’re looking at temperature in the low-to-mid 50’s with clear skies and very light winds.

 

Patriots vs. Bills Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 5

There are a couple defensive players for New England that are questionable heading into this matchup. Linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson didn’t practice Wednesday or Friday and he was limited on Thursday. The big injury to monitor is with Milton Williams who was a big free agent acquisition on defense in the offseason. He was limited in practice on Wednesday, didn’t practice on Thursday, but then was limited again on Friday. If he’s inactive for this game, that’s a huge blow to the Patriots defensive line.

The Bills are also dealing with injuries on defense and will be without a couple Dorians on Sunday. Dorian Williams and Dorian Strong have been ruled out by Buffalo ahead of this game while we’re monitoring the questionable statuses of Ed Oliver, Matt Milano, and T.J. Sanders.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $14,200

It’s a no-brainer at this point that Josh Allen will appear as a Captain recommendation on any NFL DFS Showdown slate. Over his last three games he’s only averaging 25 pass attempts per game, but in two of those games he’s still returned at least 23 fantasy points on DraftKings. The last three opponents for Buffalo include the New Orleans Saints, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets. The Patriots are the kind of team that can possibly push back against Buffalo for a competitive game that may elevate the passing volume for Allen.

And even if Buffalo dog walks the Patriots, Allen is likely a big reason why. And the added rushing upside gives him a DFS edge as well as he has at least 25 rushing yards in all four games this year with three rushing touchdowns. And even though he’s only attempted 50 pass attempts the last two weeks, he still has five passing touchdowns in that span.

Allen ranks first among 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (0.35) and he’s fourth in turnover-worthy play rate (1.3%). For all the knocks and complaints about Allen being rather turnover prone he’s only had one all year and it came last week against the Saints.

Here’s another little nugget about this matchup. The NFL typically doesn’t feature the Bills and Patriots playing this early in the year. Allen entered the league in 2018, which means to this point the Bills and Patriots have met 14 times in the regular season (two times per year over seven years). 10(!) of those games occurred in Week 13 or later. The NFL loves featuring these two teams in colder weather. We don’t ever really see them match up during the warmer part of the schedule. Over the last seven years these two teams have met just once before Week 6. So because of the warmer weather and better conditions, this is a spot for Allen to really put up some historic numbers without any limitations due to the temperature or other elements.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $13,000

A lot of Cook’s production in 2024 just screamed for negative regression in 2025 and that certainly has not been the case. Cook rushed for over 1,000 yards a year ago but scored 18 total touchdowns. So far in 2025 he’s on pace for 1,700+ rushing yards and 21(!) total touchdowns. It’s very unlikely he hits those marks, but he’s proven to be well worth the new contract the Bills gave him prior to the start of the season.

Some of Cook’s success should be credited to the Bills offensive line. The Bills lead the NFL in run block win rate (77%) and they’re fifth in yards before contact per carry (1.53).

He’s seen at least 22 touches in three straight games and he’s averaging three receptions per game this year which elevates his floor and ceiling as well. The Patriots run defense looked great through Weeks 1-3, but they allowed 114 rushing yards to Carolina’s running backs last week and they’ve yet to be tested by a running back of Cook’s caliber.

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,600

Drake Maye is in the midst of a huge breakout season for the Patriots. Is he still prone to mistakes and dumb decisions young quarterbacks make? Sure. But since he entered the league in 2024 he’s drawn plenty of comparisons to Josh Allen. He’s showing more rushing upside (two touchdowns on the year so far), and he’s really impressing by completing 74% of his pass attempts through four games.

Maye ranks fourth among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (0.29) and he ranks eighth in clean pocket success rate (58.7%) largely due to the Patriots offensive line ranking fourth in pressure rate allowed (25.7%).

In any game script for this matchup you have to imagine Maye is in position to put up production. Even in a trailing game script that just means Josh McDaniels has to encourage his quarterback to take control of the game and run more on his own to keep drives alive. But that also means they’ll be taking more shots throwing the ball which is a nice segue to our next Captain recommendation.

Stefon Diggs, WR, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $9,200

There is the clear and obvious revenge game narrative for Diggs against the Bills. I don’t want to become too wrapped up in that narrative, but I’d rather focus on his more recent trends. A lot of reports in the offseason and training camp were raving about his recovery from a torn ACL last season. But once the season started the production was minimal as was the usage.

In Weeks 1-3 he was playing just over half the team’s offensive snaps and he only had a 14% target share. Last week Diggs played 63% of the team’s snaps, saw just over 40% of the team’s targets while posting 100+ receiving yards for the first time as a New England Patriot.

Hopefully this is indicative of what we should expect going forward and the fact he’s in a matchup against one of his former teams may give him a little extra juice to get the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings and possibly a score.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $8,600

It’s hard to feel confident about any pass catcher on the Buffalo Bills. For starters, the passing volume has been down for Josh Allen over the last three games as we’ve already touched on. And I’ve been vocal in Discord about how it’s hard to imagine any of these skill position players finishing with more than a 20% target share.

I’m leaning into Kincaid as a core play in this matchup because the Patriots haven’t been great against opposing tight ends. In Week 1, Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer combined for nine receptions and 141 receiving yards. Weeks 2 and 3 were sort of “outliers” as the Dolphins didn’t have Darren Waller and they didn’t involve their tight ends. In Week 3, the Pittsburgh Steelers attempted only 49 offensive plays but won the game because the Patriots had five turnovers. But Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth did see six targets off Aaron Rodgers’ 23 pass attempts. And the Patriots defense couldn’t keep Tommy Tremble and Mitchell Evans out of the end zone last week.

Kincaid does have three touchdowns on the year, but also hasn’t displayed a high enough ceiling to be considered as a Captain, but the price tag is worth getting exposure as a flex play if he can post five receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $10,000

This might be a little bold, but at this price tag I do believe Henderson is worth being considered a core play and he’s worth throwing into some of your NFL DFS Showdown lineups as a Captain. He’s not a huge volume play because he’s averaging less than 10 touches per game. However, he has caught all 13 of his targets so the receiving upside should help him in this game.

According to Seth Walder of ESPN, Buffalo’s opponents are recording a -14% pass rate over expectation this season, which forces opponents to run more. Now if that’s the case then Hendo can benefit from the fact the Patriots offensive line ranks fifth in run block win rate (75%) and fourth in stuffed run rate (15.1%).

If the Patriots are waning on Rhamondre Stevenson in favor of their rookie running back taken in the second round of this year’s draft, then Henderson’s explosive play potential can help pay off this price tag but we are taking the risk because that increased volume isn’t a guarantee.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Play

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $10,200

Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $7,600

It’s hard to pinpoint which of these two carries a significant edge. They’ll both be on the field plenty and run a good amount of routes. But nobody in the passing attack will carry a consistently high target share over the course of the season.

Shakir has been fortunate to find the end zone in back-to-back weeks but so far through four games he’s only averaging five targets per game. Coleman had a huge game in Week 1 where he caught 8-of-11 targets for 112 yards and he found the end zone. Since then, he’s accumulated nine receptions for 91 yards over his last three games.

But this is DFS and we’re only discussing one game. If I have to give a slight edge to either of these receivers, it might be Shakir. He lines up in the slot for 72% of his routes which means he’ll likely avoid coverage from Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III. Perhaps that leads to more quick passes over the middle to Shakir and Dalton Kincaid so Buffalo can keep drives alive.

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $8,200

Hunter Henry’s having a great season through four games and he’s an easy guy to root for given how much we hear of him being a quality teammate and locker room asset. But this is a very difficult matchup for him and I’m hesitant to use him as a Captain or even consider him a core play.

Henry’s found the end zone three times this year and all three have come within the last two weeks. However, the Bills have been brutal for opposing tight ends this season. In Week 1, Mark Andrews had just one catch for five yards against Buffalo. The next week, Jeremy Ruckert and Mason Taylor combined for two receptions for 10 yards. In Week 3, Tanner Conner and Julian Hill combined for two receptions for 17 yards. Even last week Juwan Johnson had only three receptions for 28 yards.

Now an argument can be made that Hunter Henry is certainly better than those other tight ends listed above. And as a Patriots fan, I would likely agree with said argument. But I don’t want to completely ignore how the Bills have kept opposing tight ends in check. For that reason, I’m not inclined to load up on significant shares of Henry for this week’s SNF DFS picks.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $7,200

The price on FanDuel is a bit aggressive and I can’t say I’m particularly enthusiastic about rostering him in a half-PPR format. But on DraftKings the pricing is manageable for a player than can catch a few passes, possibly get 10 touches, and find the end zone.

Despite losing two costly fumbles in Week 3, the Patriots didn’t really deter from using Stevenson in Week 4 and the same can be said for Antonio Gibson who lost a fumble in Week 3 but found the end zone last week. Both are rather cheap pivots for anyone not necessarily buying the TreVeyon Henderson breakout.

Joshua Palmer, WR, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $5,000

In this value tier you have to imagine there are one or two salary savers that find the end zone. And this can be extended to Elijah Moore and Dawson Knox as well although Knox hasn’t caught a pass since Week 2.

The nice part about the Bills is that the offense can really put up points. The downside is that the production can be heavily consolidated to just James Cook and Josh Allen. And both Palmer and Moore don’t see the routes or targets that Khalil Shakir or Keon Coleman will. Palmer received nine targets in Week 1 but has seen just seven in his last three games. He’s still somewhat of a deep threat but it’s possible that the Bills have found an opponent that can push back since they haven’t been tested since Week 1. That may open up more routes and targets for these value options.

Mack Hollins, WR, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $3,800

Similar to Stefon Diggs we do have a small revenge game narrative for shoeless Mack Hollins. Hollins does see low volume as he isn’t an every-down receiver. He has just seven catches on nine targets and he’s only gone over 10 receiving yards just once through four games. But he’s at least found the end zone twice so far this season.

And while I like Hollins as a value punt for our SNF DFS picks, I also want to mention DeMario Douglas. Douglas provided some vital blocking on a Hunter Henry touchdown last week and on the sidelines, Henry went up to Douglas and acknowledged he only got into the end zone because of the timely blocking by Pop. Douglas didn’t receive a single target last week, but in two of his first three games this year he saw at least five. This is a nice spot for Douglas to be rewarded for last week’s efforts and get him back on the stat sheet.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

This game features one of the highest totals on the overall Week 5 slate and as of Saturday morning the over/under sat at 49.5 points. The Patriots are heavy underdogs with a 20.5-point implied team total but it does feel like Vegas is a bit bearish on the up and coming offense.

The Patriots D/ST is mostly unplayable, but we feel better if Christian Gonzalez suits up once again. They do currently rank sixth worst in defensive EPA/DB (0.19). This Bills offense can drop 30+ points in any given matchup and the Patriots have just one sack in their last two games after getting nine in their first two games. It may not require much analysis for us to safely reach the conclusion that playing any D/ST against the Bills carries plenty of risk.

The Bills D/ST currently ranks 8th in defensive EPA/DB (-0.02) but they also haven’t had any big spike weeks on the season just yet. They got into an absolute shootout with the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 but have held their last three opponents to less than 22 points on offense. Mind you, those opponents were the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints. The Bills have returned just 18 total fantasy points on the season. They would really need a defensive or special teams touchdown to hit the optimal lineup as the Patriots offensive line has delivered plenty of clean pockets for Drake Maye as we highlighted earlier in the article. Overall when we consider the potential injuries for each team both D/ST’s are looking at in this matchup, we should be downgrading both just a bit until we get the official inactives 90 minutes before kickoff.

Given the potential shootout for this game, we can definitely look to save value with the kickers. The Bills offense is incredibly efficient and move the ball well down the field and into the red zone. Even last week where they had their struggles at times against the Saints, they still put up 31 points. On the season they’ve made 18 trips into the red zone and they’ve scored 12 touchdowns on said trips. That can be a little frustrating for Matt Prater who had six total field goals in the first two games of the season. But over the last two games, he’s gone 2-for-3 on field goal attempts but the extra point attempts raise his floor. At the end of the day he’s still an affordable piece that can offer a great floor/ceiling in any game script.

Andy Borregales has been rather cold the last couple weeks. He hasn’t attempted a single field goal since Week 2, but he’s gone 8-for-8 on extra point attempts the last two weeks. But those aren’t why you roster kickers. You need field goal attempts preferably from deep. New England has made their way into their opponent’s red zone 15 times through four games and they’ve converted 10 of those trips into touchdowns. This game script may reach a point where the Patriots aren’t chasing field goals but that may only happen in a severe blowout so we can still get to Borregales as a cheap play for correlation but both teams offer cheap skill position players that could provide a bigger return with a big play or a touchdown.

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Bills DFS Player Pool: SNF, 10/5

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