I hope the members of the #FAmily, and your actual families, all had a great Thanksgiving with a lot of food, perhaps some adult beverages, and maybe you all made some coin on Thursday’s three-game Thanksgiving Day slate. Today is Black Friday. Hopefully your significant others are out shopping and you get to indulge in some afternoon NFL action for the first time ever the day after Thanksgiving. The NFL’s conquest to dominate every available day through the calendar year is never ending and now we get a Black Friday Showdown slate featuring the Miami Dolphins visiting the New York Jets. The Miami Dolphins are riding high atop the AFC East even if their win last week over the Las Vegas Raiders marked their first win of the season against an opponent with a .500 record or better. It’s debatable whether or not you believe they’ve beaten any “good” teams this year, but this AFC East matchup certainly seems like a good chance for South Florida’s team to get their eighth win of the year. The New York Jets now sit at 4-6 and have once again benched Zach Wilson, this time for Tim Boyle. The team and organization are still optimistic they’ll be able to get Aaron Rodgers back at some point in December, but if they continue to lose at this rate, what’s the point in playing him and risking further injury? We could find this game to be a low-scoring affair. Obviously, the NFL had higher hopes when they scheduled this one as a standalone game for Week 12. Alas, there is a Showdown slate to break down and analyze so we can build our bankroll ahead of Sunday’s Week 12 main slate!
Spread: Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Weather: Cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-40’s and cooling off as the game progresses. Winds will range from 10-15mph with gusts up to 18mph. No precipitation in the forecast.
- De’Von Achane, Running Back – Questionable (Knee)
- Terron Armstead, Offensive Tackle – Questionable (Knee)
- Robert Jones, Guard – Doubtful (Knee)
- Chase Claypool, Wide Receiver – Questionable (Knee)
- Lester Cotton, Guard – Questionable (Hip)
- Robert Hunt, Guard – Questionable (Hamstring)
- Alec Ingold, Fullback – Questionable (Foot/Ankle)
- Austin Jackson, Offensive Tackle – Questionable (Oblique)
- Durham Smythe, Tight End – Questionable (Ankle)
- Mekhi Becton, Offensive Tackle – Questionable (Ankle/Knee)
- Michael Carter II, Defensive Back – Doubtful (Hamstring)
- Sam Eguavoen, Linebacker – Questionable (Hip)
- Billy Turner, Offensive Tackle – Probable (Finger)
- Duane Brown, Offensive Tackle – Probable (Hip)
- Kenny Yeboah, Tight End – Probable (Hamstring)
NFL DFS MVP/Captain
He’s the most expensive player on the slate and for good reason. His touchdown last week against the Las Vegas Raiders was a highlight reel seen around the entire country. But this is the more telling tweet about how fast he truly is…
4.4 yards of separation and he once again reached a top speed of 20mph. The guy is an absolute cheat code and a blessing to us fantasy football nerds. He has a 32.4% target share which is easily the most in the league among all pass catchers and he has at least one step of separation on 81% of his targets, again, best in the league. Will he draw some coverage from Sauce Gardner? I’m sure he will. But at the same time, the Dolphins can move him around and line him up in the slot, where the Jets might be without Michael Carter II.
The Jets haven’t allowed a single opposing quarterback to throw for 300+ yards on them this season. But we also know the Dolphins like to run it up against bad teams. Miami can beat teams in a variety of ways so while the Jets defense is good, and has carried this team at times, I’m still not shying away from Tua and Co. having a big game. Josh Allen threw for 275 yards and three scores against this defense in Week 11. You can certainly make the argument there are more weapons at Tua’s disposal. Tagovailoa has reached that precious 300-yard bonus on five occasions this season and in each of those games he’s also thrown multiple scores. It helps when he has a receiver like Tyreek Hill, who can gain significant separation. He doesn’t offer much rushing upside but you can build out a variety of lineups because Tim Boyle is so cheap.
Wilson has as 32.1% target share which trails only Tyreek Hill on the season. Did he have a dud last week? Yes, but it happens. A.J. Brown had a poor performance Monday night against L’Jarius Sneed and the Kansas City Chiefs. Superstar players can have the occasional quiet game. Prior to last week’s game, Wilson had a stretch of four games where he caught 31 passes for 363 yards. He can easily register double-digit targets. My initial thought regarding Wilson was that we just don’t know how much attention he gets from Tim Boyle. But Zach Wilson has been so bad that we can’t imagine things get much worse for Wilson despite the change at quarterback. And Boyle is a nice, complimentary piece that won’t kill your bankroll. Wilson might see some coverage from Jalen Ramsey who has looked good since returning from injury. But I like the upside if he’s commanding his usual target share.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
The Dolphins are tough to run on, but Hall possesses enough talent where he can break off a big run at any moment. Through their first seven games, the Dolphins allowed six running backs to score on the ground, but over their last three outings they haven’t yielded a rushing touchdown to any opposing running backs and in that span they’ve allowed just 183 yards on the ground. I also don’t dwell on “What If” but I did find this tweet to be relatively interesting regarding Hall…
To have a dozen fantasy points negated over a two-game span is actually a significant amount. But he’s still commanding most of the work out of this backfield and he has 18 receptions on 22 targets since the team’s bye week. With a change at quarterback, I do expect him to remain involved in the passing game as an easy check down option for Tim Boyle.
Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays
Make no mistake about it, if De’Von Achane is inactive for this game, that certainly elevates Mostert into the MVP/Captain discussion. My biggest concerns with Mostert lie within his production recently. He’s still getting volume with double-digit touches in four straight games. But in that span he hasn’t gone for over 15 fantasy points in full PPR formats. Even last week, he rushed for 86 yards on 22 carries but didn’t find the end zone and he had just one reception. Now he still has 13 touchdowns on the season so he’s a good candidate to find the end zone especially if Achane were to miss the game. But I don’t know if it’s a nagging injury or if he’s just worn down, but the output has been waning a bit. Opposing running backs have rushed for 446 yards and two touchdowns on the ground against the Jets since they’ve come back from their bye in Week 7. I won’t write up De’Von Achane ($9,000) in full simply because, if I had to guess, I’m thinking he sits. But if he is active and not limited then I think he’s the better play over Mostert. However, it’s a quick turn around and the knee issues flared right back up for the rookie last week. I am assuming the Dolphins go the conservative route and sit him, but we’ll know for sure around 1:30pm ET. Update: Tom Pelissero reported Friday morning that De'Von Achane is not expected to play in this game.
I will have five lineups for this Showdown matchup and Waddle might sneak in at Captain in one of them. I’ve been a bit down on Waddle all year because he’s not the number two option in this offense. Tyreek Hill is easily number one. The running game between Mostert and Achane is number two, and Waddle is number three. However, De’Von Achane is questionable and Mostert is a bit touchdown-dependent and as I just mentioned, I’m thinking he may be a bit burnt out. So maybe, just maybe, we see Tua lean on Waddle a little bit more. Especially if Waddle is lining up in the slot, and Tyreek Hill is covered by Sauce Gardner, then is it possible we see more from Waddle when the Jets may not have Michael Carter II? I’m at least intrigued because exposure could be down overall on Waddle after catching just 7-of-14 targets the last two weeks.
Tim Boyle, QB, New York Jets
I’m not entirely sure what happened, but DraftKings dropped the ball with this pricing. The slate became available well after Robert Salah announced that Boyle would start this game. And yet, DraftKings still priced Boyle as a backup quarterback. Zach Wilson is the backup this week and he’s $8,200 compared to Boyle at $6,000. So while I don’t love Boyle at Captain, he’s a good floor play out of the flex. People tend to overrate this Vic Fangio defense as I’ve been more bearish on them this year, but they have looked better since getting Jalen Ramsey back. But even in a blowout loss, Boyle might just attempt 25-30 passes and there could be enough volume to certainly get him to a point of hitting value.
Miami Dolphins D/ST
This is normally where I would discuss both defenses, but I’m not interested in the Jets D/ST in this matchup. The Dolphins have a 25-point implied team total while the Jets are at just 15.5 points. And no to mention, the Dolphins D/ST is on the rise while the Jets can still give up points despite having such a great secondary. The Dolphins D/ST has held five of their last six opponents to under 18 points and four of those opponents were held to 15 or fewer points. They have multiple sacks in all but one game this year. They tend to fold against good teams, but the Jets are not a good team and they’ll be playing Tim Boyle at quarterback. Yes, we like Boyle for his price tag, but if he was priced as a starting quarterback we wouldn’t have much interest. But Miami could find sacks and turnovers in bunches on Friday and the secondary has looked great with Jalen Ramsey in the mix.
The New York Jets are a fantastic matchup each week for opposing kickers. Since their bye week, the Jets have seen opposing kickers attempt 12 field goals in four games. Tyler Bass had 17 fantasy points last week for the Buffalo Bills and Daniel Carlson had 14 fantasy points the week prior. As we mentioned before, the Jets do have a good defense especially in the red zone as multiple offenses have had to settle for field goals throughout the season. In 7-of-10 games this year, opposing kickers have attempted at least three field goals against the Jets, and only once was a kicker held to just one attempt. Jason Sanders ($5,400) is a very strong play in the Flex and it wouldn’t surprise me if there was significant exposure to him at Captain.
Greg Zuerlein ($5,000) is viable as well so long as the offense can still get into field goal range. The Leg was kept off the scorecard last week as the Jets scored just one touchdown and opted to go for two rather than an extra point. Prior to last week’s game, Zuerlein did have 15 field goal attempts in his previous five games with double-digit fantasy points in three of those outings. The Jets don’t put up a ton of points, but if they can play a competitive game and keep it close, then Zuerlein can get some attempts. But it remains to be seen how effective the offense will be with Boyle under center, so I’d rather play Sanders over Zuerlein if you’re asking me to pick one.
NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains
Tyler Conklin provides a nice safety blanket for an inexperienced quarterback like Boyle. Conklin is usually a reliable target for anyone throwing him the ball. He’s caught 15-of-16 targets the last three weeks and if the Dolphins are giving Boyle an easy dump off over the middle to Conklin, he’d be wise to take it. Allen Lazard ($4,200) and Dalvin Cook ($4,000) are more expensive than Conklin and I don’t get it. Their output is arguably worse than his and Conklin is a nice discount.
Wilson did play 45 snaps last week but keep in mind, Tyreek Hill did leave the game for a good portion so Wilson did get a little more work in. I seem to whiff on Wilson whenever the Dolphins are in a Showdown game, so I won’t make the mistake of leaving him out of this write-up for the first Black Friday NFL game. He’s put up at least five fantasy points in four straight games. That output was good when he was under $2,000 for this slate but we’ll need a little more production out of him. Fortunately, he should still carve out a few targets in this matchup. You can also consider Robbie Chosen ($2,400) who is $200 less but if I’m going with familiarity, I’ll take Wilson. Chosen caught two passes last week but was re-signed off the practice squad this week because of the injuries to Braxton Berrios and Chase Claypool.
The analysis is simple, if Achane is out then Wilson might see some extra work. Wilson was a healthy scratch last week with Achane returning from a knee injury. But with Achane now Questionable, it’s possible Wilson could see five-to-seven touches, but we did see him get some passing work in Weeks 8 and 9. So if Achane is out then Wilson becomes a popular pay-down option. If Achane plays, I don’t have much interest in Wilson.
DraftKings is getting smarter with how they price the cheap plays. It’s hard to find a $200 or $400 play nowadays but I do like Gipson. We just don’t know how much the quarterback change will impact everyone. Gipson does have a catch in three straight games and he’s only $800. So we’ll take any sort of production from him at this price tag.