Hopefully as you woke up on the Monday before Christmas you were already gifted a victory in your season-long fantasy football league(s) and you’re on to the championship. So you have the luxury of kicking back and taking in a football game this evening with less stress than a lot of people that play this silly little game.

And if you have no vested interest in the season-long format then you’ve come to the right place to get your daily fantasy football fix with the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook. The San Francisco 49ers head to the Midwest to go head-to-head with the Indianapolis Colts. One team is comfortably in their conference’s respective playoff picture while the other is clinging to life. Let’s take a look at the latest 49ers vs. Colts DFS picks to close out Week 16!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; 49ers vs. Colts Game Preview

The Indianapolis Colts have seen their playoff hopes slip away over the last handful of weeks. They’re riding a four-game losing streak and they’ve been on the wrong end of the final score in five of their last six games as well. You can blame injuries as those have certainly mounted up. They haven’t had DeForest Bucker for their last five games. They went all in on acquiring Sauce Gardner from the New York Jets and he’s been hurt and won’t be available for this game. And we all know about Daniel Jones’ devastating Achilles injury. But you could also blame poor play on the losing streak. Or if you’re the superstitious type you could blame Seth “Da Flow” Irskens after he apologized for being savage for his Colts hype song against the Steelers. But we shouldn’t be too hard on Seth, he genuinely seems like a good-hearted guy who loves his team.

As the Colts have seen their playoff chances slip away with each passing week, the opposite is true for the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have clinched a spot in the playoffs and enter Week 16 on a four-game winning streak. They’re quietly having an outstanding season. We just don’t give them their roses simply because they play in the NFC West and both the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams sit ahead of them in the division standings.

And that’s an interesting factoid because the San Francisco 49ers, with a win Monday night, move to 11-4 and have a playoff spot locked up. And as far as scheduling for next season goes, this is a great football team and they might find themselves with a third-place schedule in 2026 based on how the NFL forms their matchups. So while this suggestion has nothing to do with Monday night’s game, maybe we keep the over on San Francisco 2026 win total in the back of our mind when placing bets in the offseason.

But enough about the future, we’re here to dissect Monday night’s matchups to make some money. Here is the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook before we get a great holiday slate in Week 17!

 

 

 

49ers vs. Colts Notable Injuries & Inactives

The 49ers announced over the weekend that Ricky Pearsall would not be available for this game so that does elevate some value pass catchers on San Francisco to our player pool. Linebacker Nick Martin was also placed on IR so that’s another defensive piece the 49ers will be missing, and Yetur Gross-Matos is questionable as well with a hamstring injury.

The Indianapolis Colts have already made some announcements as to who will be unavailable for our NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook. While they opened the practice window for Anthony Richardson to potentially come off IR, he won’t be available for this game. They’ve also ruled out Bernhard Raimann, Daniel Scott, Anthony Gould, and Sauce Gardner. The big news for Indianapolis is that they will get DeForest Buckner back after he missed the last five games.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 12/22

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $13,000

We kick off the Week 16 NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook with two very obvious plays. And I’m surprised CMC isn’t more expensive on DraftKings because De’Von Achane was $12,800 a week ago for our MNF DFS picks. But alas, I digress. We’re more than happy to roster this volume hog if he’s going a bit underpriced for a Showdown slate.

Advanced analytics aren’t really a requirement when it comes to making any argument for McCaffrey. While he only has two 100-yard bonuses on DraftKings this season, he does have 14 touchdowns and heavy involvement in the passing game. He’s averaging 25 fantasy points per game on DraftKings and he’s likely going to touch the ball 20+ times.

We also have a bit of a “history watch” notification to be mindful of. McCaffrey is 78 rushing yards and 160 receiving yards away from being the first player in NFL history to have multiple 1000/1000 seasons. I doubt he reaches that milestone Monday night, but it just speaks to his involvement and the kind of production we know he can deliver for our NFL DFS Showdown lineups.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $12,600

On the other side of the ball we have another volume monster with Jonathan Taylor, and he also feels a bit mispriced especially considering we know he’s discounted compared to McCaffrey. But Taylor has seen the production slip during the Colts losing streak. Since the team’s Bye week, he hasn’t registered a 100-yard rushing performance and he’s averaging just 3.66 yards per carry in his last three games. But again, he gets volume as evidenced by 20+ touches in three straight games.

In the first game with Philip Rivers as the team’s starting quarterback in Week 15, all the skill position players struggled but that was in a tougher matchup. As Mike Clay of ESPN pointed out  in his Fantasy Playbook for Week 16, the 49ers defense has allowed the eighth-highest EPA and they sit in the upper half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to all four skill positions.

Rivers showcased good leadership and his ability to lead an offense. But he has almost no arm strength and the Colts touted an -11.4% pass rate over expectation per Dataroma. With all this in mind, I’m liking Taylor to go for 100+ yards tonight. And if the Colts are throwing the ball, we did see 33% of Rivers’ targets last week go to the running backs.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $11,200

Kittle is a better value on DraftKings than FanDuel but still highly playable in both formats. With no Ricky Pearsall for this matchup, if the ball isn’t going to CMC then I’m assuming it’s going to Kittle. In the four games where both he and Purdy were healthy this season, Kittle is averaging eight targets, 75 receiving yards, and roughly 18 fantasy points. And let’s not forget, way back in Week 1 Kittle left the game early in the first half with 12.5 fantasy points. Lately, he’s gone for 65+ receiving yards in five straight games which is an incredible floor for a tight end.

The Colts are a bottom 10 defense against opposing tight ends and there’s no Pearsall, who was coming off a very productive outing in Week 15. Since Week 10, Kittle has three games with 22+ fantasy points on DraftKings. When you consider the savings you’re getting with Kittle at Captain, it’s possible he can be optimal with that kind of score while you fit either CMC or Taylor (or both) in at flex.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $11,800

Purdy has missed significant time this year but in four-of-six games where he has played, he’s completed at least 70% of his pass attempts. Even last week against the Tennessee Titans he threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns while adding 44 rushing yards, but 26 of those came on one scramble.

This matchup actually sets up so well for Purdy. Is there some Captain/MVP appeal with Purdy? There sure is but it’s so hard to lock him in over the likes of CMC/Taylor/Kittle but it’s a good way to get a little contrarian. Since Week 6, the Colts are allowing the second-most passing yards per game (280.6) and they won’t have Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner for this primetime showdown.

Purdy will carry much more ownership than Philip Rivers and for good reason. But he works so well in a variety of ways and if you think this is an onslaught by the 49ers then you probably want their starting quarterback in your lineup as a flex play at the very least.

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $9,400

It’s surprising to say that Jennings had a “quiet” game last week after he scored twice but he finished with just three receptions for 37 yards. The two touchdowns obviously elevated his fantasy score to 18.7 points. The big takeaway a week ago was Ricky Pearsall who finished with 96 receiving yards and a 30.4% first-read target share.

But obviously he’s unavailable for this matchup and while his absence will make cheaper receivers more valuable, we can logically assume some additional targets could be funneled to both Kittle and Jennings.

Jennings has scored six times in his last six games so the floor is elevated, but he hasn’t gone over 20 fantasy points this season. For that reason, I love utilizing him in as a flex play if you can’t afford to get to Purdy, but it’s hard to play him at Captain when there are arguably three or four players on this slate with a higher ceiling.

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $8,400

Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $8,600

Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $7,600

Sometimes I lump two players in together for a section, usually running backs or something along those lines. It’s very rare that I mention three pass catchers in this fashion, but I honestly feel the same about all three of these players.

My strategy with these three is that you play no more than two, but I’d prefer just to target one. As I mentioned in the Jonathan Taylor section, the 49ers present a better matchup for all of Indy’s skill position players, but Rivers’ limitations will hold back the pass catchers on this offense. I love the volume Taylor will receive but Rivers will struggle to distribute the ball to his pass catchers.

These three players combined for seven receptions and 61 yards last week. Ameer Abdullah put up a better stat line than these three players so you have to pick and choose your spots carefully because getting exposure to multiple options from this group could keep your lineup from breaking the slate. I’m inclined to support Michael Pittman the most from this group but I’d rather do my best to cram in more expensive options and play two dart throw bargains from the next section.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $7,200

I give slight preference to Bourne over Demarcus Robinson but I do think both are in play. I even like Robinson’s over on 1.5 receptions if you can find a market for those, and I’ll be playing that on DraftKings Pick6. But Bourne found most of his success this season when Ricky Pearsall was inactive. And sure, in some of those games he had Mac Jones as his quarterback. But he is poised for a larger role and if he simply catches one pass for a single yard, he activates a $500,000 bonus.

I like both receivers as pay down options, but you may have trouble fitting even one of these players in if you’re trying to squeeze in CMC/Taylor/Kittle/Purdy all in one lineup. And even fitting four of those players is only viable if you’re playing Kittle at Captain. So if you go that route, you’re probably playing even cheaper plays. So continue reading on!

Brian Robinson, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $5,400

B-Rob may be a little touchdown-dependent but given the recent volume he’s seen, if he finds the end zone and continues getting 7-to-10 rush attempts per game then he’s probably hitting the optimal lineup. He’s clearly the backup to Christian McCaffrey but the 49ers know they probably need to preserve CMC for the postseason, especially now that a playoff spot has been locked up. So it might just be in their best interest to get Robinson some more run to keep CMC healthy. But the 49ers still have a fighting chance at the division crown so they can’t just outright rest CMC as if they can’t improve their playoff seeding.

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Indianapolis Colts – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $3,600

I don’t love this. In fact, it’s downright ugly. Abdullah is certainly cheap, but it does feel like DFS players will chase last week’s production and potentially try and hope for involvement once again. And that could certainly be the case because we’ve already touched on how bad Rivers was throwing the ball last week and that the Colts likely go heavy with the run game.

That benefits Jonathan Taylor but Abdullah also had nine total touches last week including five receptions for 32 yards. One-third of Rivers’ targets went to the running backs last week so if that trend continues then Abdullah has potential. I just don’t love that he potentially comes in as a value chalk option.

 

 

Player Pool

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