Let’s put the finishing touches on Week 15 with another NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook as the Miami Dolphins visit the Steel City to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers!

As of the publishing of this article, we exist in a universe where the Kansas City Chiefs have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, while the Miami Dolphins have not. The Dolphins enter this matchup on a four-game winning streak and winners of five of their last six games. This all happened after the team started 1-6 and the writing was seemingly on the wall for Mike McDaniel. But strangely enough, the team has rallied since they parted ways with general manager Chris Grier on Halloween.

The Steelers also have their own hopes for the playoffs. The AFC North playoff pictures is looking tight between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. But the Steelers have an uphill battle to climb in this game as they’ll be without T.J. Watt for this crucial matchup. Let’s examine the top matchups and lineup building strategies for the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook to close out Week 15!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Dolphins vs. Steelers Game Preview

We close out another chapter of the 2025 NFL season with an AFC matchup that is arguably a playoff eliminator for one team. For as exciting and fun as Miami’s run has been, if they lose this game to fall to 6-8 they likely aren’t making the playoffs.

But it has been fun to watch. They’ve won four straight games including five of their last six. Mike McDaniel has arguably coached his way into keeping his job. And when you consider the landscape of potential head coaching candidates, there aren’t many young, offensive-minded coaches out there and the Dolphins may just be better served keeping McDaniel. Sure, there were reports earlier in the season that he had lost the locker room. But it’s entirely possible he’s regained it as well.

Miami’s recent success has come with a heavier commitment to running they ball. Tua Tagovailoa has attempted 85 total pass attempts in his last four games and that’s coincided with their winning streak. The running game has been their bread and butter and it’s gone straight through De’Von Achane whose efficiency is off the charts and he’s the team’s biggest playmaker by far. Prior to last week’s game where he left due to injury, he had five straight games with 20+ touches.

How do the Pittsburgh Steelers put a stop to the Achane Train? It’s tough to say especially since they’ll be without T.J. Watt who had surgery this past week to repair a partially collapsed lung.

But the Steelers do come into this matchup as three-point favorites but don’t expect an offensive showcase because the implied total currently sits at 42.5 points as of Sunday evening. A win for Pittsburgh helps keep them a game ahead of the Baltimore Ravens for the lead in the AFC North so both teams certainly have plenty to play for. Let’s dig into the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook! 

 

 

 

Dolphins vs. Steelers Notable Injuries & Inactives

The visiting Miami Dolphins had everyone practice in full on Saturday with the exception of two players, who are the only names carrying an injury designation as of Sunday night. Defensive back Elijah Campbell is doubtful with a knee/ankle injury and offensive lineman Andrew Meyer is questionable with a tricep injury.

The big news out of Pittsburgh this past week was the lung procedure that T.J. Watt had to undergo. He’s expected to make a full recovery, but he’ll miss Monday night’s game so that’s a big hit to the Pittsburgh defense and pass rush. The Steelers have also ruled out James Pierre and Andrus Peat while Derrick Harmon is questionable.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 12/15

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $12,800 | FanDuel: $13,400

This is the most obvious Captain recommendation for the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook and DraftKings is really letting you know as he’s $2,000+ more expensive than any other player on the slate.

Even last week when he left with an injury, he still finished with 17.5 fantasy points on just EIGHT total touches. There’s clear and present big play upside and he’s a volume play if he’s on the field. In 13 games he’s already passed 1,100+ rushing yards and he has 11 touchdowns on the year and he has heavy involvement in the passing game with 55 receptions on 73 targets.

If you can afford him you can definitely play him in this spot despite the chalk, but I would spread exposure around if you’re entering multiple lineups. This is going to be a spot where he’ll be popular and you’ll want leverage in case he busts or gets hurt like last week.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $9,800

I’ll be completely honest. When I finished this article, I did not initially have Waddle in the Captain section. But I read through the whole thing and just compared the level of talent on the board and he was too good to not have as a Captain recommendation, but I will admit I have some concerns.

This is a rare situation where I don’t like Waddle as a Captain on DraftKings, but I do like him as an MVP option on FanDuel. He’s the second-most expensive player on DraftKings while he’s the sixth-most expensive option on FanDuel.

Waddle’s having a good season operating as the team’s WR1 since Tyreek Hill went down with an injury. However, let’s not act as if he’s really taken the torch and run with it. He’s been limited to 142 total receiving yards in his last three games and he has just two games all season with 20+ fantasy points. He does command a heavy target share but we need to be mindful that Miami isn’t throwing it as much as they were earlier in the year.

This slate is certainly void of elite playmakers, but I do prefer heavier volume than just seven targets per game from my Captain/MVP candidates on a Showdown slate. I like Waddle but compared to some other options on this slate, he feels a bit capped for this game because Miami has been running the ball so well of late.

DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $12,600

Metcalf has certainly been a frustrating player at times, but we saw last week that there are spike weeks with Metcalf. He’s a good example of the kind of NFL DFS Showdown type player that you probably either play at Captain/MVP or don’t play at all.

In five straight games from Weeks 9-13 he didn’t eclipse 50 receiving yards and that’s why you can exclude him from flex consideration on this slate. But when you get performances like last week where he gets a dozen targets and goes for 148 yards, then we’re firmly reminded of the upside. The touchdown equity is a bit frustrating, especially over his last six games, but last week was a good reminder what a spike week looks like with Metcalf.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $11,800

The quarterback play on this slate is suspect at best. We have a quarterback likely in the final year of his career and a quarterback who has admitted he struggles to see over his offensive line at times. So we’ll kick things off with the former.

Rodgers is having a fine year given his age and he has the Steelers in a position to make the playoffs. But he ranks 27th among qualified quarterbacks in success rate (42.7%), 17th in completion percentage over expected (0.2%), but he’s at least 13th in turnover-worthy play rate (2.8%) and that’s backed up by the fact he has just eight turnovers in 13 games this season. But the big concern with Rodgers is that he’s dead last in average depth of target (5.9) so while he does take some deep shots to Metcalf, he doesn’t really do it often.

Opposing quarterbacks also haven’t really been racking up production on Miami’s defense of late. No quarterback has registered the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings against this defense all season long and they’ve only given up 250+ passing yards in three games this year and this defense has eight takeaways in their last four games. Rodgers is a good correlation piece but not worth our time at Captain given the low ceiling.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $11,200

Tua definitely has a worse ceiling than Rodgers considering he hasn’t surpassed 13 fantasy points on DraftKings in his last five games. A big reason why Miami is riding a four-game winning streak is because they’re leaning heavier on the run game and the defense has played better.

And that’s come at the expense of Tua’s volume. He’s averaging about 21 pass attempts per game since Week 10 and he hasn’t thrown for 200+ yards in any of those games. And this is already a quarterback who ranks 24th in EPA/Play (0.01), 25th in success rate (43.5%), and he’s dead last in turnover-worthy play rate (5.4%).

Now if there were ever a spot to fade a quarterback, it might be in this game with Tagovailoa. He’s clearly not playing well, and the volume is way down. We don’t necessarily need to be paying this much when we may find more production going with either running back on Pittsburgh or Metcalf.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,600

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $8,800

If I had to choose one to go with it might actually be Gainwell. Both running backs will see their share of touches, but Gainwell is cheaper on both sites and has recorded at least six receptions in three of his last four games. That can establish a good floor, especially on DraftKings, because if he finds the end zone, we feel good about getting 15+ fantasy points. Now that’s no guarantee because Pittsburgh does split the workload between these two. Warren’s production looks better than it probably should. He’s averaging just 3.2 yards per carry since Week 12, but he’s also found the end zone in each game. His touchdowns have accounted for 44.5% of his fantasy production in those games so we may be looking at a game where we want more exposure to Gainwell.

Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $7,400

Wright is probably a better option on FanDuel than DraftKings simply because of pricing. The tag for DraftKings likely came out before it was official that Achane would play in this game and wouldn’t carry an injury designation. Do I wish he was $1,000-$2,000 cheaper? Yes. But nobody will touch him at a $6,800.

But maybe this is a spot where he played himself into an opportunity to earn more touches. The team knows what they have with Achane and Waddle. Wright is a second year running back who hasn’t shown much aside from last week’s performance. The Dolphins are still in the hunt for the playoffs, but they probably know they aren’t making it in and this is the time of year teams start taking inventory of the roster.

Wright carried the ball 22 times last week in Achane’s absence and produced 107 rushing yards and he outpaced Ollie Gordon 18.9 to 3.3 in terms of expected fantasy points. Again, the price tag is the only hang up and he’s much easier to play on FanDuel but if there are any limitations to Achane then Wright seems like he’s in line to benefit. This is strictly a large-field, multi-entry recommendation for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Darren Waller, TE, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $7,000

Greg Dulcich, TE, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $1,600 | FanDuel: $4,400

This section was incredibly fun to preview because I’m only highlighting the incredibly affordable tight ends on both sides of the ball for this slate. If you’re looking for some value running backs or additional wide receivers just take a peek at the player pool below for more options.

Waller and Dulcich are both in play for Miami. We know they like utilizing freakishly athletic tight ends in the passing game and both aren’t restricting our budgets. Truthfully, if Miami doesn’t give much work to Jaylen Wright, then these two are instantly better plays.

Even with Waller returning a couple weeks ago, both players have maintained a bit of a role in the offense. Even Dulcich, who is very affordable for this slate, has back-to-back games with a reception of 20+ yards in addition to multiple receptions in four of his last five outings.

The Pittsburgh Steelers Tight Ends

In more recent NFL DFS Showdown Playbook articles, I’ve touched on how the Los Angeles Rams are getting a lot of usage out of 13 personnel (three-tight end sets). The Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t far behind as these are the two teams that by far use it the most in the NFL.

Volume isn’t necessarily a premium with any of these three. But Jonnu Smith has a bit of a revenge game narrative in play after his phenomenal season with the Dolphins in 2024. Pat Freiermuth may have the best floor, which isn’t saying much. But he could see three or four targets. Darnell Washington is probably the most fun option of the three to cheer for because of his immense size and he’s wildly difficult to tackle.

As is the case with a majority of tight ends, we need a touchdown from whoever we play. But the Steelers do love keeping all three involved and the Dolphins are a top five matchup for opposing tight ends.

 

 

 

Dolphins vs. Steelers DFS Player Pool, 12/15

Player Pool

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