We wrap up Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season with the third Monday Night Football doubleheader on Disney/ESPN’s family of networks. These doubleheaders were staggered perfectly the first time this season but now they’re overlapping, and the scheduling is just rough. But we have a great NFC matchup for Game 2. The Chicago Bears are fresh off their Bye week, similar to the Atlanta Falcons in the first game tonight. They go on the road to visit the Washington Commanders, who will not have their best wide receivers at their disposal this evening. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook for our Bears vs. Commanders DFS picks!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Bears vs. Commanders Game Preview

These two teams met last year in Washington which saw the Commanders get the 18-15 victory. The game is most notable for the amazing Hail Mary throw from Jayden Daniels to Noah Brown as time expired. Washington had a 12-0 at one point in that game on the backs of four field goals before Chicago made a late rally with a pair of touchdowns and then Daniels shocked the world with his amazing touchdown pass.

But these teams and personnel are a bit different this time around. Ben Johnson has taken over as head coach for the Bears and the offense was trending in the right direction heading into the team’s Bye week. And let’s not forget, both Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are forever linked with each other as they were the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Bears sit at 2-2 but won back-to-back games before the week off. The Commanders sit at 3-2 and are navigating a pool of injured players for this game. Jayden Daniels has missed two games already this season, but he’ll be available for this matchup. Terry McLaurin is due to miss his third straight game and the previously mentioned Noah Brown won’t be able to get another game-winning touchdown tonight because he’s been ruled out as well.

So we have some value opening up with Washington’s receivers and they’ll all collect significant ownership across our NFL DFS lineups for the Showdown slate and the two-game slate. Let’s take a look at the matchups and best plays for the second NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

 

 

 

Bears vs. Commanders Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Chicago Bears have only ruled out Grady Jarrett on defense. However, we’re monitoring the situations surrounding players like Austin Booker, Travis Homer, Colston Loveland, and even Cairo Santos. If Santos cannot play, the team will pivot to Jake Moody to fill in as their kicker Monday night.

The Washington Commanders are pretty beat up offensively. They’re not as rested as Chicago, who is coming off their Bye week, and to make matters worse they won’t have the best wide receiver options Monday night. They’ve already ruled out Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown. However, Deebo Samuel is questionable after not practicing Thursday and Saturday while Chris Rodriguez is also questionable. Definitely keep an eye on those situations and developments as we get closer to roster lock.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 10/13

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders - DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $13,800

The level of play has obviously regressed from what we witnessed a year ago and sure, a lot of it has been injuries. The Commanders have done well to tread water with what they’ve had and that includes two games with Marcus Mariota as their starting quarterback.

Daniels ranks down at 19th in EPA/Play (0.10) but he’s at least 6th in average depth of target (8.3). But he’s 29th in completion rate over expected (-4.3%) so there are some warts to his game. He still has rushing upside based on the 68 yards he racked up in Week 1 and he has done well protecting the ball and not turning it over. He’s 6th among qualified quarterbacks in turnover worthy play rate (1.6%).

The Bears defense plays a lot of man coverage schemes which plays right into the strengths of Deebo Samuel if he’s able to go and he would serve as Daniels’ WR1 this evening. For the sake of Daniels’ fantasy value, let’s hope Deebo is good to go so Jayden doesn’t have to do more than he’s asked.

Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

Odunze has quickly emerged as the WR1 in Chicago’s offense. The 2024 first-round draft pick has been explosive through four games with five touchdowns and 35 total targets. The sad thing is that he could have put up even bigger games because he’s only caught 20-of-35 targets.

He’s collected the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings just once, but the volume and big play potential are definitely there. And the matchup lines up well for him as well. The Commanders play about 32% man coverage and Odunze has a 4.14 YPRR against man which is an absolutely stellar rate. On the season, Odunze boasts a 42% air yards share, 24.8% target share, and 32.1% first read target share. Those are all things we love from our NFL DFS lineup Captains.

The Commanders struggle against receivers so much so that they allow 5.63 yards after contact per reception which ranks 29th in the NFL so it’s another night where Odunze could put up a big stat line fresh off the Bye week.

Deebo Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $11,200

If he’s active, we definitely want exposure on this slate. For the two-game slate, ownership might be a little suppressed because of the injury designation entering Monday night’s matchup. And for the Showdown slate we may get him at a discounted ownership at Captain.

The Commanders operate man coverage at nearly a 50% rate and Deebo touts a 2.21 YPRR against man coverage, which he’s always beaten in his career. He’s found the end zone in four-of-five games this year and they even draw up some designed runs to get him some carries out of the backfield.

The target share fluctuates a bit but he has 30 receptions through five games already and he saw 11 targets last week when McLaurin was out.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $10,600

JCM saw a significant leap in his role in Week 5 where he saw 16 total touches, rushed for over 100 yards, and a pair of touchdowns. The touchdown total is now at four through five games. The only concern now was that he only played about half the offensive snaps, but the production is there and the Commanders need playmakers in this matchup.

He’s playing incredibly well when the ball is in his hands as he’s averaging 6.6 yards per carry and the Bears have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. They’ve allowed 120+ rushing yards to all four of their previous opponents this season including 200 combined rushing yards to Ashton Jeanty and Raheem Mostert just two weeks ago and Jeanty found the end zone three times in that game. We are rolling the dice a bit with JCM because of the snap share and the shared volume but he has the ability to put up numbers with his efficiency.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,400

Williams certainly has improved from what we saw a year ago and it helps that he has a head coach willing to teach him up. He still isn’t at the 70% completion rate threshold Ben Johnson would like to be at, but he has eight touchdown passes on the year.

He’s only 26th in EPA/Play (0.03) but he’s 9th in average depth of target (8.2) so he’s taking some shots downfield at least. The Bears offensive line ranks 4th in pass block win rate (68%) and we’ve already seen three opposing quarterbacks throw for 260+ passing yards on this secondary.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,200

I’m not particularly the biggest D’Andre Swift fan. He’s averaging less than 3.00 yards per carry over his last two games, but he’s caught at least three passes in all four games this year so I’m optimistic the Bears Bye week may have been what he needed.

The Chicago offensive line rank 1st in the league in run block win rate (76%) and the Commanders have allowed three-of-five opponents this year to rush for 125+ yards. Now defensively, they aren’t completely flawed against running backs. The Commanders rank 2nd in run stop win rate (36%) and they’re 3rd in the NFL in yards before contact per attempt (0.64). Fortunately for Swift, the involvement in the passing game does elevate his floor especially on DraftKings.

DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $8,400

Moore has a good enough floor in this matchup but his ceiling is nowhere near what Odunze’s is. Odunze is the big play threat while Moore is capable of being more of a chain mover. However, the volume just doesn’t get us very excited. He’s only seen 21 targets to Odunze’s 35 and Moore has just 16 receptions on the year and he hasn’t gone over 70 receiving yards yet.

Pricing does keep him in play because he sees plenty of snaps and runs plenty of routes. He’s an affordable piece if looking to game stack this matchup. But as you read on you’ll also see that I’m bullish on some rookies for Chicago as well so I’m not entirely sure I’ll land on many shares of DJ Moore.

Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $4,600

Here’s a wild Zach Ertz stat courtesy of Heath Cummings from CBS Sports. Zach Ertz did not record a catch last week. That’s incredibly rare and unlikely to happen in games when Ertz is active. The last time Zach Ertz didn’t record a catch in a game he was active? You have to go way back to November of 2014.

It’s hard to imagine Ertz going consecutive games without a reception and with no Terry McLaurin and no Noah Brown they may need to get Ertz going in this matchup and it’s possible he gets targeted when Washington gets into the red zone. The Bears have allowed opposing tight ends to rack up receptions and he caught seven passes when these two teams met last year.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Luke McCaffrey, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $5,000

I guess we can call him LMC just based on the nickname we give his brother? Either way, with no Terry McLaurin and no Noah Brown, McCaffrey might see an expanded role. Deebo Samuel is beat up and questionable but even if he plays, the Commanders can’t solely rely on him.

But he’s found the end zone in two of his last three games with a couple 50+ receiving yard performances to go along with the scores. We’ve already touched on how suspect the Chicago defense is against the pass so this is a good opportunity for the value on Washington to step up.

Luther Burden, WR, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $3,200

Burden’s only had one big game and it came back in Week 3 where he went for 100+ yards and a touchdown on just three receptions. The big play ability was on full display and this is a classic case of the FAmily targeting a post-bye week rookie breakout performance.

Now the smart play might just be Olamide Zaccheaus who has operated the role we want for Burden. OZ is seeing 52% of the snaps with a 15% target share and 19.2% first read target share. So you can save $1,000 on DraftKings and go with him over Burden if you so choose. But for large-field tournaments, Burden has the upside we need for a big takedown.

Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $2,800

Similar to Burden, we’re considering the post-bye week rookie breakout. Let’s not forget, Loveland was held in high regard by the Bears to where they made him the first tight end off the board in a loaded draft class. The Bears wanted him over Tyler Warren and Mason Taylor.

Loveland injured his hip in Week 3 and missed the Bears Week 4 game. Additionally, he was limited in practice early last week and Cole Kmet has dominated the tight end snaps (92%). But Loveland has the athleticism and upside that could turn him into a star in the NFL. He’s 6’5” and 250 pounds. He ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at the NFL Draft Combine and he’s a great route runner and pass catcher. This is a great opportunity to get him going coming out of the team’s Bye week.

 

 

 

Bears vs. Commanders DFS Player Pool, 10/13

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