We wrap up Week 5 with an AFC matchup as the Kansas City Chiefs head to Duval County to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The hometown Jags are coming off back-to-back wins and sit at 3-1 just behind the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. Despite a good start to the season, this team has been frustrating for fantasy football managers with the disappointing starts for Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas, and Travis Hunter.

The Kansas City Chiefs got off to an 0-2 start which is unfamiliar territory for this organization. However, they’ve secured back-to-back wins and with the Chargers losing consecutive games, a win puts the Chiefs right back in the hunt in the AFC West. It’s early in the year but this game does feel like it has some long-term effects on how the AFC playoff picture unfolds. Let’s take a look at the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook for the final game of Week 5!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Chiefs vs. Jaguars Game Preview

The NFL is delivering quite the matchup to close out Week 5 as the Kansas City Chiefs go on the road to visit the Jacksonville Jaguars. Despite the star power, both teams are lacking some explosive upside on the offensive side of the ball. In terms of explosive plays (plays going for 15+ yards), the Chiefs rank 21st at 8.8% while the Jaguars are 23rd at 8.6%. Perhaps as we turn the calendar to a new month, these offenses can find another gear.

The Chiefs got off to a rough start, but brighter days are ahead. After starting 0-2 against the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles, they’ve won back-to-back games against the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens. Moreover, a win tonight means they’re tied for the lead in the AFC West. And after next week’s matchup against the Detroit Lions, they get Rashee Rice back from his six-game suspension and then this team could be off to the races.

The Jacksonville Jaguars stumble into this matchup a bit but they are 3-1 and they’re keeping pace in the AFC South. There have been the obvious struggles on offense, however. Trevor Lawrence is paid as one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, but he certainly isn’t playing like one as he’s completing under 60% of his pass attempts with four interceptions, and a 75.1 quarterback rating. Perhaps there’s been no bigger bust in fantasy football than Brian Thomas who has caught just 12-of-32 targets on through four games, and the team doesn’t quite have a clear direction on how they want to utilize Travis Hunter on a weekly basis.

Defensively, these teams match up pretty well. Neither defense is giving up many explosive plays as the Chiefs rank 11th (7.9%) and the Jaguars are right behind them in 12th (8.1%). The Chiefs defense has 10 total sacks through four games including four takeaways in their last two games. The Jaguars only have seven sacks, but they have been forcing turnovers at an incredibly high rate with at least three takeaways in all four games this year. This is part of the reason the Jaguars are tied for 3rd in defensive EPA/Play (-0.10) but the Chiefs aren’t far behind in 7th (-0.04).

This matchup certainly has the potential to be a great game, but inconsistent play has plagued both teams through the first month of the season. It makes navigating the player pool a little more difficult, so we’ll do our best to finish in the green with the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

 

 

 

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Notable Injuries & Inactives

Xavier Worthy popped up with a questionable tagged early on Sunday. He was a full participant in practice last week, but it sounds like his ankle swelled up on the flight to Jacksonville. All reports indicate that he should be a full go for this matchup. Defensive back Kristian Fulton was limited in practice last week for Kansas City and he’s also questionable for this game.

The biggest injury to monitor for Jacksonville is with regard to Travon Walker. He did not practice Thursday or Friday due to a wrist injury, but he was limited on Saturday. The Jaguars have already ruled out Yasir Abdullah and definitely need Walker ahead of this crucial matchup. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 10/6

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $13,800

Mahomes has really been stepping up to the plate through four games. The Chiefs started 0-2 but have rallied for back-to-back wins. My one complaint from a fantasy aspect is that I wish the rushing upside was more consistent. In the two losses, he ran for 123 yards and a touchdown in each game. Over the two wins he’s only totaled seven rushing yards so it’s hard to really get a read on how much he’ll run in this matchup.

In three-of-four games this year he’s attempted at least 37 passes. But over his last five quarters of action, he’s completed 70% of his passes for 394 yards and six touchdowns.

The Chiefs offensive has had its up’s and down’s, but they rank top five in pressure rate allowed (26.5%) entering Week 5 and that’s allowed Mahomes to rank in the top 10 in EPA/Play (0.20) and average depth of target (8.2) so there’s a nice little floor/ceiling combination with this play.

Brian Thomas, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,600

I don’t like putting him in here as much as you may like seeing him in this section. But the truth is, this game is short of players with immense upside. BTJ has definitely struggled through four games and this isn’t the greatest matchup. But there’s still upside and in a competitive game, he should see some volume.

He’s having a down season and is averaging 9 fantasy points per game and he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1. There are concerns about the route running, a wrist injury, and possibly some nerves about taking a hit as he runs a route over the middle of the field.

His catch rate on passes 10+ yards down field was 80% in his rookie year. Through four games this year that number is down to 47% so I’m inclined to believe he can still get this figured out. 64% of the targets still go to the wide receivers in this offense and he’s seen 25 targets in his last three games. If the ownership numbers are depressed because of the slow start then I do like this as a leverage opportunity.

Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $11,800

I don’t have the highest of hopes for Etienne in this matchup, but I do trust the volume he’ll see. The Jaguars offensive line has actually played well above expectations through four games. The Jaguars rank 3rd in yards before contact per carry (1.76), 3rd in run block win rate (76%), and 7th in stuffed run rate (16.5%).

Etienne has seen at least 16 touches in all four games this season and he’s found the end zone in three straight. We do get a little extra juice with the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings as he’s eclipsed that mark in two matchups already this year. The Chiefs have allowed 120+ rushing yards in three straight games and they’ve yielded 15 receptions to opposing running backs over their last two matchups. It may not be pretty and he might not break off many big plays but this is a volume play that could return over 20 fantasy points which makes him a good candidate at Captain.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $10,600

The late “questionable” designation on Sunday gives me some pause but if he’s active then he qualifies for this section simply because Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have anyone else he really trusts to get the ball to. It’s honestly amazing he’s even playing after dislocating his shoulder in Week 1 but last week he returned and caught 5-of-8 targets for 83 yards and added 38 yards on the ground as well. And he did all this while only playing 59& of the offensive snaps. According to Mike Clay of ESPN, Worthy is averaging 8.3 touches, 93.7 yards, and 20.9 fantasy points across his last seven full games.

As disruptive as Jacksonville’s defense has been this year, they have allowed for the opposing offense’s WR1 to pop off. Ja'Marr Chase caught 14-of-16 targets for 165 yards and a score in Week 2. Nice Collins caught 8-of-11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown. Even Tetairoa McMillan caught 5-of-9 targets for 68 yards in his first NFL game.

Worthy’s in a great spot until Rashee Rice returns from injury and he should be leaned on heavily by Mahomes as the Chiefs look to get to 3-2 and share the AFC West division lead.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $11,200

It’s incredibly difficult to expect any kind of ceiling performance from Lawrence nowadays. It’s hard to label him a “bust” but he definitely has not lived up to the billing of a former #1 overall pick. The good news in this matchup is that there’s potentially enough volume for him to hit pay dirt. He’s attempted 30+ passes in all four games so far this year including two games with over 40 attempts. And yet in three of those games he’s still returned less than 12 fantasy points.

He correlates well with any of his pass catchers at Captain, if you’re comfortable enough to even play a Jags running back or receiver in that slot. But Lawrence enters this matchup rankings 20th in EPA/Play (0.07), 32nd in completion rate over expected (-6.8%), and he’s 17th in average depth of target (7.3) so he isn’t doing anything particularly special. But the Jags O-line is giving him clean pockets as they rank 2nd in both pressure rate allowed (21.2%) and pass block win rate (75%).

Significant ownership could still flock to Lawrence so if you wanted to go underweight in this spot to gain leverage, you’ll definitely have an edge. It’s difficult to lay off any quarterback in a Showdown slate but it’s hard to justify allocating this much of your budget to him.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $9,200

Kelce certainly lacks the big play upside but he still gets targets from Patrick Mahomes. But we do have a bit of a birthday narrative for Kelce as he turned 36 on Sunday. The betting market has Kelce’s anytime touchdown odds at +170 as of early Monday morning which gives him roughly a 37% chance of scoring. He hasn’t scored since Week 1 so he might be due. He’s only averaging about 5.5 targets per game which is incredibly low but again, he’s an aging tight end.

The Jags do play more zone coverage (over 70%) so that can help feed him more targets across the middle. But he’s only eclipsed 50 receiving yards once through four games. Like most tight ends, we do need Kelce to find the end zone.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $8,400

Neither Isiah Pacheco nor Kareem Hunt really jump off the page as a great play. I’m going to highlight Pacheco because he’s younger and I believe he still has potential for a big game. But neither running back has nearly made the case for themselves as a confident play.

The Chiefs offensive line is doing a good enough job in run blocking as this backfield is averaging 1.76 yards before contact per carry and they rank 7th in stuffed run percentage (16.5%). Strangely enough they’re dead last in run block win rate (66%) which is pretty hard to wrap your head around. But Pacheco and Hunt are virtually splitting snaps and touches. Pacheco has been more efficient between the two, but neither are seeing volume.

The Jaguars are also pretty tough to run on. They’re allowing 82.8 rushing yards per game this year which is third fewest in the NFL, but that number drops to 72.7 yards per game over their last three games. You might not need to play either if you’re buying into the breakout of a cheaper rookie running back on this offense so feel free to continue reading on.

Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars – DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $4,600

For his price, Strange seems like a phenomenal value especially on FanDuel. In his last two games he’s caught 6 receptions on 7 targets and in three games this year he’s returned at least 45 yards and he’s yet to find the end zone. Touchdowns may be hard to come by for any of Jacksonville’s pass catchers simply because Lawrence only has five touchdown passes on the year.

We do like when a tight end ranks top two in his team’s targets and Strange is currently in that group. He plays over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps and the Chiefs deploy two-high zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the league which might funnel more passes to Strange over the middle.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Parker Washington, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $5,000

Washington’s performance last week was incredibly underwhelming especially when you consider Dyami Brown was inactive. But to kick start the season for the Jaguars, Washington looked like one of the more reliable pass catchers or Jacksonville amidst BTJ’s struggles and Travis Hunter’s split usage between offense and defense.

Washington had 9 receptions on 16 targets for 110 yards in Weeks 2 and 3. Last week he failed to catch either of his two targets and he logged a negative rushing yard. Fortunately, he had a punt return for a touchdown so the additional upside as a returner helps his DFS outlook for a value play.

Brashard Smith, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $3,000

Smith isn’t as hard of a sell as he used to be, but he still may be a bit dependent on the game script. The Chiefs aren’t getting anything out of Isiah Pacheco or Kareem Hunt. Smith played 19 snaps last week which represented the most he’s seen through four games. However, most of his carries came late in last week’s blowout win over the Baltimore Ravens.

If there’s a silver lining it’s that he’s a wide receiver converted into a running back. And he caught three passes on four targets all in the first half of last week’s game. It would be nice if he was a little cheaper because he was under $1,000 on the last four Showdown slates. Andy Reid is also a bit non-committal to featuring rookie running backs but given the production out of Pacheco and Hunt, he should consider all options.

Dyami Brown, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars – DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $4,000

Brown was inactive last week but in Weeks 1-3 he combined for 10 receptions on 14 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. The production isn’t much but at the same time we’re highlighting a $2,000 receiver on DraftKings.

Brown was limited in practice due to the shoulder injury he sustained in Week 3 but he doesn’t carry an injury designation heading into this matchup. And with the struggles and inconsistencies of Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter so far, you can make the argument that Brown has been one of the better receivers for Trevor Lawrence alongside Parker Washington.

 

 

 

Chiefs vs. Jaguars DFS Player Pool, 10/6

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