For Week 11, we’ll be closing out another NFL Sunday with a high-quality NFC matchup as the Detroit Lions visit the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite the success of these two teams in recent years, these organizations haven’t faced off since Week 1 of the 2022 season where the Eagles claimed victory 38-35.

This game certainly has “playoff preview” vibes. The Eagles sit atop the NFC playoff standings at 7-2 while the Lions are 3rd at 6-3 but they now control the NFC North. This game carries heavy playoff implications in an absolutely stacked conference so let’s take a look at the latest Sunday Night Football DFS Playbook with our Eagles vs. Lions DFS picks!

 

 

 

Lions vs. Eagles DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 11/16

The Sunday Night Football DFS Playbook was a lot more fun to preview than the Monday Night Football Playbook for Week 11. The Las Vegas Raiders in primetime for a second straight week does very little to bring me excitement. But there are so many ways to attack this week’s SNF DFS picks so I had much more joy writing up this Playbook than previewing tomorrow night’s game.

Both these teams clearly have not just playoff hopes, but Super Bowl aspirations. The Philadelphia Eagle are the reigning Super Bowl champs from a year ago. But prior to the onslaught of injuries, the Lions were looking like the team to beat especially in the NFC.

Both teams currently have control of their respective divisions, but once again injuries are starting to mount up for the Detroit Lions as we dig deeper into the second half of the season and we’ll dig into the specifics of their injury concerns shortly.

But even the Philadelphia Eagles, the reigning champs, aren’t without their warts. Saquon Barkley’s efficiency and explosiveness have taken a hit compared to what we saw a year ago. A.J. Brown has been vocal on-and-off the field about the team’s lack of a passing game. But the Eagles push forward. They chose not to trade Brown in order to make another run at a Super Bowl title and perhaps in the coming offseason they’ll trade him to another team ahead of the NFL Draft.

Fortunately, we have a competitive game on the horizon and we can find a variety of ways to get creative with our Lions vs. Eagles DFS picks. Let’s take a look at the NFL DFS Showdown Playbook for Sunday Night Football to end the weekend with a little extra green!

 

 

 

Lions vs. Eagles SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Lions +2.5 (-105)
    • Eagles -2.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Lions (+130)
    • Eagles (-155)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 46.5 (-118)
    • Under 46.5 (-102)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Lions +2.5 (-104)
    • Eagles -2.5 (-118)
  • Money Line:
    • Lions (+124)
    • Eagles (-146)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 46.5 (-114)
    • Under 46.5 (-106)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Lions vs. Eagles SNF, November 16th

There’s no rain in the forecast for this week’s Lions vs. Eagles DFS picks. However, it’ll be a fairly windy day in Philadelphia and that will carry into the evening for this game. Temperatures will start at around 46 degrees and slowly drop throughout the evening. But the winds will likely hover between 15-20 miles per hour. That’s not a significant downgrade to either passing attack for this game, but just something to be mindful of.

 

Lions vs. Eagles Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 11

The Lions have declared a significant amount of players out for this Week 11 matchup in primetime. The big injury news that broke Saturday? Sam LaPorta was placed on IR so there’s an opportunity for Brock Wright strictly in deeper fantasy football leagues. However, the Lions also ruled out the likes of Terrion Arnold, Marcus Davenport, Miles Frazier, Kerby Joseph, Joshua Paschal, D.J. Reed, and Malcolm Rodriguez. Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker, the team’s offensive tackles, are both questionable after not practicing on Friday.

The Eagles are coming in with almost a full bill of health. Currently only offensive guard Willie Lampkin is questionable but he practiced in full on Friday. It appears as if any inactives for the Eagles will be healthy scratchers and/or coach’s decision(s).

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $11,400

The matchup is tough across the board for all of Detroit’s wide receivers for our Eagles vs. Lions DFS picks. Per Mike Clay, the Eagles secondary has seen the 6th-most targets to opposing wide receivers so that plays into the volume narrative very well for ARSB. However, the Eagles have allowed just four touchdowns to opposing receivers, which is 2nd-fewest in the NFL. And Mike Clay notes that no receiver has reached 23 fantasy points against Philly, which is a relatively high benchmark, but it’s worth noting that the upside could be a bit capped.

But at the end of the day, St. Brown is just such an outstanding volume play. He has cooled off a bit since the team’s Bye week as they’ve worked to get Jameson Williams more involved. But St. Brown still has 21 targets over his last two games and will draw most coverage from Cooper DeJean out of the slot.

Among qualified wide receivers, St. Brown ranks 3rd in first-read target share behind Garrett Wilson and Ja’Marr Chase, and he’s 2nd in first downs per route run behind only Puka Nacua. He’s an elite wide receiver and in any game script for our SNF DFS picks, you have to imagine the Lions are getting him involved.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions - DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $12,600

Gibbs has spike performances in two of his last three games. In that span he’s scored five total touchdowns bringing his total to 10 on the season and the Lions have only played nine games. Gibbs may have a better matchup than the Lions receivers because the Eagles rank 10th in defensive EPA against the pass, but 17th against the run.

The potential for a negative-or-neutral game script benefits Gibbs over Montgomery. Gibbs has more explosiveness with four runs where he’s reached 20+ miles per hour this season and he has over 900 all-purpose yards on the year. The Eagles actually rank 31st in stuffed run rate (13.4%) while the Lions offensive line ranks 12th in stuffed run rate (15.0%). The Detroit O-line is actually top five in yards before contact per carry (1.71) so Gibbs is my favorite running back on the slate to play at Captain.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $13,000

Hurts made the Captain section for last week’s NFL DFS Monday Night Football Showdown Playbook and he was not a great play. To be honest, there were plenty of bad plays from that game as it finished with a 10-7 score but the Eagles got the win. Hurts finished with 183 passing yards and a touchdown but he also lost a fumble.

But he still has rushing upside and four games with 24+ fantasy points on DraftKings this year. Entering Week 11, Hurts ranks 11th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (0.17), 6th in completion percentage over expected (6.0%), and he’s 3rd in turnover-worthy play rate (1.3%). His offensive line is somewhat beat up and they rank 25th in pressure rate allowed (33.3%).

And as always if the Eagles get into a short yardage situation at the goal line, then he’s live for a touchdown on the ground. The passing volume is down but this is also the kind of matchup where Hurts has to take control of the game and make it happen on the ground and through the air.

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $8,200

Since the Lions Bye week, the Lions have gotten back to utilizing Jameson Williams more and it’s surprising it took this long after giving him a big contract in the offseason. Over the last two weeks he’s collected 10 receptions on 13 targets for 185 yards and two scores.

He sports an 18.8% target share in that two-game span and there’s no Sam LaPorta for this matchup. Now as we mentioned in the Amon-Ra St. Brown section, it’s a tough matchup for the Detroit receivers. And Williams is going to see coverage from Quinyon Mitchell. So Williams, because of his overall variance, is the kind of play that you roster at Captain or you perhaps consider leaving out of your lineups.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

Goff is the “Steady Eddie” of the slate. Given all the skill position players available to us, I don’t think he has the highest ceiling on the board. He needs to throw for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns like he did last week to be in that conversation.

And he certainly can get to that mark, but it feels like the matchup against this secondary could cap his ceiling. Goff is 29th in average depth of target (6.4) but he at least ranks 2nd among quarterbacks in EPA/Play when blitzed behind only Drake Maye. But the Eagles rank 26th in blitz rate (19.8%). Goff’s EPA/Play when blitzed versus no blitz goes from just over 0.30 to about 0.15 which still has him in the top 10 but there’s clearly a drop off.

Overall, among qualified quarterbacks, Goff ranks 4th in EPA/Play (0.26), 3rd in success rate (53.4%), 3rd in completion percentage over expected (8.5%), and he’s 6th in turnover-worthy play rate (2.3%). But it’s a tough secondary to throw on and Goff’s offensive line is a bit beat up in this matchup. I still like him as a core play because of the floor and potential shootout for this matchup.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $10,600

Barkley is serviceable with his volume and he has five performances this year with 17+ fantasy points per DraftKings scoring. But he only has one game with more than 20 fantasy points and that came in Week 8 against the New York Giants. But aside from that he’s averaging under 4.0 yards per carry. The usage is still high but only Quinshon Judkins has scored more than 15 fantasy points against this Lions defense as an opposing running back.

Barkley still carries involvement in the passing game with at least three receptions in six-of-nine games this season and he has six total touchdowns. Most running backs would be worth fading against the Lions. They’re allowing just 94.3 rushing yards per game (8th-fewest). But despite Barkley’s inefficiency, the overall volume could keep him in our player pool as a flex option. I’m not particularly excited about playing him at Captain in this matchup.

David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $5,200 | FanDuel: $7,400

I don’t love Monty enough to play him at Captain. However, in doing so, you do have a lot of flexibility with the rest of your roster. I personally view him as a core flex play because he’s very affordable on both sites and while I prefer Gibbs in this matchup, it still feels like Monty could touch the ball a dozen times. That’s great volume at this price tag against a defense allowing 118.6 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.

Monty also has some touchdown juice with five total on the year and if he rumbles into the end zone in this game, then he’s providing some value at a cheap tag. Ownership will likely flock to Monty in this spot with Sam LaPorta unavailable for this game, since he was priced $200 more than Monty on DraftKings. Below Monty are the kickers and I’d rather take the upside with Monty over those two.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $8,800

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $9,200

Cody Main pointed out on Twitter (X) that this is the cheapest A.J. Brown has been on a primetime showdown slate since he was on the Tennessee Titans, which is quite mind boggling. But things are a bit bleak in Philadelphia for Brown. The team obviously is rather inconsistent with how often they’ve wanted to commit to the aerial attack this season. Jalen Hurts has just three games all season with more than 30 pass attempts and only one game with more than 35.

Fortunately for both Brown and Smith, this is the kind of game script where the Eagles could be tasked with throwing more. DeVonta Smith does appear as if he’s become the preferred target for Jalen Hurts. Since Week 5, Smith is averaging 6.2 receptions on 8.4 targets and 99.8 receiving yards per game. He’s also scored in two of his last three contests.

For Brown, he did score twice in Week 7, but he’s only found the end zone three times all season and he only has nine targets in his last two games. And we can always lean into the squeaky wheel narrative with Brown but he’s constantly complaining about his role in the offense so this is nothing new. But this is the kind of game environment where Brown and Smith could be featured more especially if the Eagles find themselves trailing. But given how beat up the Detroit secondary is heading into this game, it’s a good chance for Philadelphia to appease their top receivers.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $7,600

Goedert leads all tight ends in the NFL in touchdown receptions and he’s actually third among all pass catchers behind only Davante Adams and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The volume isn’t as reliable as DaVonta Smith but he has at least three receptions in all but one game this year.

I do prefer paying down to David Montgomery simply because Monty will likely get double-digit touches but Goedert clearly has a good shot at catching a touchdown if the Eagles get into the red zone. The Lions defense is sort of middle-of-the-read in terms of how well they can defend the position. Goedert could draw some ownership after the Lions placed Sam LaPorta on IR on Saturday but I also think a lot of that exposure could go to Montgomery.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Kalif Raymond, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $2,800

Raymond gets a bump among all the Lions value options because of LaPorta’s absence. Raymond operates as the team’s WR3, but he did catch all four of his targets last week while offering a 10-yard rush attempt as well. But he does manage to get on the field for three-wide receiver sets. LaPorta missed Week 11 last season and the Lions opted for more 11-personnel where Raymond caught both his targets for 30 yards. But that was a 52-6 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. This game should unfold a little differently.

Brock Wright, TE, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $1,600 | FanDuel: $2,200

With Sam LaPorta ruled out for our Lions vs. Eagles DFS picks we obviously find great value in Wright and possibly Ross Dwelley, who is the bare minimum price tag. Dan Campbell even said his confidence in Brock Wright would be “sky high” if LaPorta had to miss this matchup, which is certainly now the case. But Brock Wright is also dealing with his own ankle injury so while the value is nice we should be a little careful with going too heavy on this punt play.

Mike Clay of ESPN even highlights that the matchup for tight ends against the Eagles isn’t easy. The Birds have only allowed 1.22 fantasy points per target to the position (fewest in the league) and only three tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points against Philadelphia. Tread carefully and spread exposure around in the value range.

Isaac Teslaa, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $1,000 | FanDuel: $2,600

Without the presence of LaPorta, there are more targets available that I don’t want to just assume go to Wright and/or Dwelley. LaPorta’s absence does leave an 18.6% target share open for this matchup.

Teslaa has been rumored to become more involved in the offense and he did receive 19 offensive snaps last week but that resulted in just one target. This is a game environment where he could be called upon for a larger role and despite the small workload, there’s a little touchdown equity here.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

This game is projected to be a tight one. The Eagles are the hometown favorites (-2.5) but both offenses have implied team totals of 22+ points as of Saturday afternoon. The Eagles run defense is nothing spectacular. They utilize heavy box rates at the lowest rate among all 32 teams in the NFL (22.2%) which correlates with their light box rate of 39.4% which is 3rd-most. Because of this, their defense is 25th in success rate against the run (44.9%) and 31st in stuffed run rate (13.4%). This is another reason to be optimistic about Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

Their pass rush stats don’t jump off the page either. They rank outside the top 20 in blitz rate (19.8%), sack rate (5.5%), and pass rush win rate (35%). Fortunately, the Lions offensive line has regressed this season and are 27th in pass block win rate (56%). Strangely enough there have been great games for the O-line, and bad games as well. In four games this year they’ve allowed Jared Goff to be sacked at least four times. But they also have four games this season giving up no sacks. Keep in mind that Sewell and Decker are both currently questionable for Detroit’s O-line.

The Lions defense is 21st in blitz rate (23.7%), but that’s okay because they do generate some natural pressure without it. They rank top 10 among all 32 defenses in pressure rate (34.5%) and sack rate (9.0%). Jalen Hurts has been sacked 25 times this year, but he also doesn’t commit many turnovers. This game features two of the best offenses in the NFL and points should be scored. I’m downgrading both D/ST’s in this matchup but will include them both in the player pool below.

Battle of the Jakes for our SNF DFS picks! The kickers carry some intrigue especially because the spread is so tight for this matchup. However, it’s awfully hard to feel good about Jake Elliott. Sure, he’s attached to a good offense, but he’s attempted only 10 field goals all season with two misses. Overall, he’s made at least two field goals in a game just once all season. The Eagles are only averaging about 2.3 red zone offensive trips per game and they convert touchdowns on over 80% of those drives.

Jake Bates likely offers the better floor and ceiling as we close out our Lions vs. Eagles DFS picks. The Lions average over 30 points per game and Bates has attempted at least two field goals in all but two games this season. He’s only converted 75% of his FGA’s on the year, but the Lions at least average more than four red zone trips per game and they convert touchdowns at a 68% clip. It’ll be Bates over Elliott for me Sunday night.

 

 

 

Lions vs. Eagles DFS Player Pool: SNF, 11/16

Player Pool

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