Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season is approaching and we get a matchup straight out of the AFC East for our TNF DFS picks. The start of Week 11 is eerily similar to how last week started. In Week 10 the Las Vegas Raiders, the worst team in the AFC West, went on the road to the division leaders, the Denver Broncos. Those two teams delivered a 10-7 snoozefest and it was a massive letdown for several relevant players in Week 10.

This week feels more of the same. The basement dwellers of the AFC East, the New York Jets, head to Foxborough to take on the division-leading New England Patriots. The Jets are coming off back-to-back wins, but New England is riding a seven-game winning streak and are fresh off a statement win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Sunday. It’s an ugly game on paper as we might struggle a bit to identify plays we like on the offensive side for the New York Jets. But we’ll do our best to dominate the Showdown slates on DraftKings and FanDuel with our Jets vs. Patriots DFS picks!

 

 

 

Jets vs. Patriots DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 11/13

Thursday Night Football delivers another matchup of two organizations simply heading in opposite directions. The Jets are struggling to find their identity and have no long-term answer at the quarterback position. Much has been made of Justin Fields’ struggles and they dealt defensive stars Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams at the NFL Trade Deadline a little over a week ago. But they’ve won back-to-back games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. So against the NFL Ohio teams, they’re 2-0. Against the rest of the country? They need some work.

There’s been a lot of talk regarding the 2025 schedule for the New England Patriots. The record from last year played a big role in their 2025 matchups. But at the end of the day, they can only play who is in front of them. They’re coming off their seventh straight win having gone on the road to Tampa Bay and handing the Bucs their third loss of the year. New England has now won seven straight games and control the AFC East. They also beat every team in the NFC South this year, so it’s very rare we see one team win two division titles in the same season.

Things are falling into place very well for New England. The defense is playing at a high level following all the acquisitions they made during free agency earlier in the year. Drake Maye enters Week 11 as the current favorite to win the NFL MVP Award (+275), and against the soft New York Jets defense, he has a great opportunity to pad his stats. New England also saw a breakout performance from TreVeyon Henderson in Week 11 to the tune of 147 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Pats are also getting production from their pass catchers such as Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry, and more. Drake Maye’s accuracy is turning everyone into a contributor on the offensive side.

It's hard to get excited and feel confident about seeing a “good” game play out before our eyes Thursday night. Even on a short week the Patriots are massive double-digit favorites. But we can never take divisional games for granted so we’ll find the best way to get a little different with our Jets vs. Patriots DFS picks for our Thursday Night Football DFS contests!

 

 

 

Jets vs. Patriots TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Jets +12.5 (-105)
    • Patriots -12.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Jets (+575)
    • Patriots (-850)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 43.5 (-108)
    • Under 43.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Jets +12.5 (-104)
    • Patriots -12.5 (-118)
  • Money Line:
    • Jets (+590)
    • Patriots (-850)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 43.5 (-102)
    • Under 43.5 (-120)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Jets vs. Patriots TNF, November 13th

It’ll be a cold one in Foxborough for our Jets vs. Patriots DFS picks. Temperatures will be around 38 degrees around kickoff and slowly drop as the game progresses. There is no rain in the forecast and winds will likely remain under 10 miles per hour.

 

Jets vs. Patriots Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 11

The New York Jets have ruled out Garrett Wilson who re-aggravated a knee injury in Week 10 and he’s now due to miss a few weeks. The defense has already ruled out Azareye’h Thomas with a concussion while Harrison Phillips, Wil McDonald IV, and Braiden McGregor are questionable for the defense.

As of Wednesday, the Patriots have ruled out Kayshon Boutte, Austin Hooper, and Rhamondre Stevenson on the offensive side, while Christian Elliss will not suit up for the defense. Additionally, running back Terrell Jennings is questionable as well, but he was a limited participant in practice on the short week.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots - DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $13,800

Drake Maye is rightly the most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel for our TNF DFS picks. He’s been playing at a very high level. Has he been perfect the last couple weeks? No, there have been the occasional blunders against the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But he continues to give the Patriots a chance to win as the team sits at 8-2 through 10 games.

According to Greg Harvey, Maye is the only quarterback in NFL history to have 2,500+ passing yards, a 70%+ completion percentage, 250+ rushing yards, and five or fewer interceptions through 10 games of the season. That is a big reason why he enters Week 11 as the favorite to win the NFL MVP. 

Per Hayden Winks of Underdog, the Jets rank 7th worst in passing defense EPA while the Patriots and their aerial attack rank in the top three. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games including eight of his last nine while offering a little rushing upside as well. The Jets just gave up 54 rushing yards last week to Dillon Gabriel. The lone concern is New England getting too much of a lead early on and they take their foot off the gas in the second half. But you have to imagine that if the Pats get a big lead, Maye is a huge reason why.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots - DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $11,400

As a Patriots fan, I was incredibly excited the Patriots drafted Henderson in the second-round of the 2025 NFL Draft. I had grown accustomed to Bill Belichick passing on explosive/trendy players in college, that I just wasn’t expecting it. And Henderson had a tough start, but he’s found his groove, especially with his breakout performance this past Sunday that included a pair of 50+ yard touchdown runs. Over his last three games he’s averaging 7.28 YPC on 38 carries, which is obviously due for some regression, but the matchup on Thursday is looking outstanding.

In their first game after trading Quinnen Williams to the Dallas Cowboys, the Jets run defense surrendered 158 total rushing yards including 75 to Quinshon Judkins. The week prior to that, they allowed both Samaje Perine and Chase Brown to rush for 70+ yards and they each found the end zone on the ground, while Brown added another through the air. With back-to-back games seeing 15+ touches, I think we can roll Hendo out as a Captain recommendation since it’s a short week and the Pats look like they want to get Rhamondre Stevenson some more time to heal up since he’s been ruled out.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $11,800

The Patriots had a nice streak going where they didn’t allow an opposing running back to rush for 50+ yards through the first nine weeks of the season. That streak came to an end thanks to Sean Tucker of all people, who finished with nine rushes for 53 yards. So we now move the goal posts a little bit more; the Patriots have not allowed a running back to rush for 60+ yards in 2025.

The Patriots defense leads the league in rushing yards allowed (79.2) but we have Hall listed in this section simply because he’s a volume play. He’s touched the ball 20+ times in back-to-back games including 18+ touches in five of his last six games. He had a dry spell regarding touchdowns to start the season, but he’s found the end zone three times in his last two games. It’s not pretty but without Garrett Wilson for our Jets vs. Patriots DFS picks, we can lean on Hall as a key component because it’s unlikely any other Jets skill position player touches the ball more than him.

Justin Fields, New York Jets – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $12,400

I am well aware he’s not a good NFL quarterback, but at the same time, this is a one-game slate and Fields is a variance play. The floor is incredibly low, but the ceiling is still high. And at the end of the day, he’s kind of led the Jets to back-to-back wins. And for our Jets vs. Patriots DFS picks, we love the rushing upside as Fields has rushed for 25+ yards in all but one game this season. Without Garrett Wilson, he might be tasked with doing that even more.

Now as I mentioned in the last paragraph, there’s variance here. Per DraftKings scoring, Fields has four games this season where he returned less than 10 fantasy points. In three other games, he returned 25+ fantasy points but those all came in Weeks 1-5. In Week 8, he did return 20.9 fantasy points but that was against the Cincinnati Bengals who are the best matchup for quarterbacks in fantasy football.

If I had to plant my flag, I’d say it’s more likely Fields is a bust in this game. But I can’t ignore the upside and even if this isn’t a competitive game, Fields can go out there and rack up garbage time production. 

Now if you want to “big brain” this slate, then you can consider Tyrod Taylor, who isn’t cheap. I personally believe the Jets should start Taylor over Fields. If you want to assess some of the offensive talent on your roster, you need to do so with Taylor and not Fields. Fields can make his own production and run for big plays, but that doesn’t give us a good read on the other players. The Jets have some young pieces they need to get a good look at. They have a better shot at getting an accurate read with Taylor as the starting quarterback, than Justin Fields.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Play

Stefon Diggs, WR, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $10,200

Diggs is a fine option for our TNF DFS picks. But you have to wonder what his ceiling really is. He’s actually scored in three straight games after not finding the end zone at all through the team’s first seven matchups this season. And the good news is that he doesn’t come off the field that often and he’s leaned on for some much needed third-down conversions.

But he hasn’t registered the 100-yard bonus since Week 5 against the Buffalo Bills in primetime. And despite scoring in three consecutive games, he has 98 total receiving yards in that span. At least there’s no Sauce Gardner to account for in the secondary, but if this game projected to be more competitive then we’d be on board. For now I’ll list him as a core play because he still seems like a good candidate for ~12-15 fantasy points, but that’s not enough of a ceiling to be optimal at Captain.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

DeMario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $4,800

Mack Hollins, WR, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $5,400

What a wonderful price tag on FanDuel for Pop Douglas. $4,800 is an absolute steal for a receiver with some break-the-slate upside even if building stacks for the Patriots is a challenge on a week-to-week basis. Douglas has gone for 70+ yards and a touchdown in two of his last five games. But he has some low-scoring numbers in the other three games. 

Now if there’s an argument against Douglas, it’s that he only played 13-of-61 offensive snaps this past week. Mack Hollins played the most (48) which was actually more than Stefon Diggs (36). He turned that workload into six receptions on 10 targets for 106 yards and that marks the second time in his last three games he returned 85+ receiving yards. There’s some appeal to utilizing Hollins at Captain just solely based on his snap share from last week but we are hoping for a little luck with landing on the Pats receiver that has the big game.

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $8,200

The good news with Hunter Henry is that the snap share is elite. Last week he played 87% of the snaps but that resulted in just one catch for nine yards. Moreover, he’s also gone six straight games without double-digit fantasy points. The snap share does call for targets every week. You can’t get targeted if you’re on the sidelines. And the Jets aren’t particularly great at defending the tight end position either. Harold Fannin and David Njoku combined for six receptions (on nine targets) for 65 yards and a touchdown last week. Perhaps Henry keeps the trend going and finds the end zone at a manageable price tag in Week 11.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Mason Taylor, TE, New York Jets – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $7,400

This is a surprisingly cheap price tag for Mason Taylor especially since I’m fairly confident pricing dropped after Garrett Wilson’s injury on Sunday. Taylor only has 30 receptions for 246 receiving yards on the season but both those totals rank second on the team behind only Wilson.

Taylor sees plenty of snaps and routes. With Wilson out for this game, Taylor emerges as a popular value option because of the opportunity and available targets. Sadly, the Jets rank dead last in passing yards per game (143.8) so this isn’t a slam dunk. But as we mentioned in the Justin Fields section, there could be production for the Jets skill position players late in the game. In their last three games the Patriots have given up a total of 23 receptions (on 32 targets) for 229 yards and two touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

Terrell Jennings, RB, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $3,800

Jennings was forced out of Sunday’s game with a knee injury after only playing five snaps. So that led to a larger role for Henderson who went on to have a breakout game. In Week 9, Jennings wasn’t an efficient play, but he did get 12 touches and found the end zone, and we’ve already mentioned how easy it is to run on the Jets. If he can suit up for our TNF DFS picks then he’ll be a very popular value play.

Adonai Mitchell, WR, New York Jets – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $4,200

The Jets acquired Mitchell at the NFL Trade Deadline as part of the return package that saw Sauce Gardner go to the Colts. He was inactive this past Sunday, likely giving him a chance to get caught up with the Playbook even though it feels like they’ve had to dumb the Playbook down at times.

But with Garrett Wilson out for this game, Mitchell could be called upon to make his debut. The issue for Mitchell is that he struggles with drops. For this matchup, things could be even harder if he sees coverage from Christian Gonzalez. But Mitchell is still a great separator and he can get open. The Jets are taking a shot on him to see if he can reach his ceiling so we can take some shots on this play for our Thursday Night Football DFS contests.

Kyle Williams, WR, New England Patriots – DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $5,200

We’re getting a $2,000 wide receiver for our TNF DFS picks who just scored his first career touchdown last week on a 72-yard burst. While the touchdown is nice, we also need to pay attention to the snap share. Sure, he only had one catch on two targets last week. But he played 34-of-61 snaps. That’s a significant bump for New England’s rookie receiver. I was very close to putting Williams in the core plays section because of the snap count last week at such a cheap price tag. But until he gets more than one reception in a game, I have to keep him listed in the value section.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

According to Sam Hoppen, the Jets rank bottom seven in offensive and defensive EPA/Drive. That’s essentially enough of a reason to fade the Jets D/ST and largely focus on the Patriots in this matchup. However, the Patriots are priced way up to $6,600 on DraftKings for this rendition of the TNF DFS picks. The Patriots opened as 11.5-point favorites but as of Wednesday morning that shifted to -13.5 which gives the Jets and implied team total of 15 points.

The Patriots haven’t forced a turnover in their last two games, and they’ve allowed 23 points in both those matchups against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. I don’t want to take this particular matchup for granted because this is still a division game and anything can happen. And even if the Jets are putting up production and points late in the game, that still counts for our TNF DFS picks. So I don’t really want to play the Patriots D/ST on DraftKings because of the price. I don’t want to play the Jets because the Patriots have an implied team total of 28 points. But both will appear in the player pool below because this is a position of variance. The Jets traded two of their best defensive players prior to Week 10 and the D/ST still scored 19 points on DraftKings last week due to a couple special teams touchdowns.

If the Jets can keep this game close then Nick Folk is a great play. But as we just mentioned, the implied team total for the Jets is very low and you have to wonder how many drives will put Folk in position to kick some field goals. That’s largely been the case all season but Folk has still made multiple field goals in all but one game this season, and last week was the first time this year he didn’t make a field goal from 40+ yards out.

Andy Borregales is a tough read for New England. It’s not that he lacks talent, but he certainly lacks consistent opportunities. Over his last five games he’s only made multiple field goals just once. He certainly has plenty of extra point attempts, but those won’t take anything down on DraftKings or FanDuel Thursday night. The Patriots average about 3.5 red zone trips per game and they score a touchdown on 57% of those trips. And keep in mind, they had three touchdowns last week that came from 50+ yards out where they were nowhere near the red zone. The offense is getting better and finding their groove. That may come at the expense of Borregales’ attempts Thursday night.

 

 

 

Jets vs. Patriots DFS Player Pool: TNF, 11/13

Player Pool

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