The NFL heads to upstate New York for an AFC East matchup to kick off Week 3. The Miami Dolphins look to avoid an 0-3 start to the 2025 season as the Bills look to extend their lead in the AFC East and move to 3-0. These two teams are heading in opposite directions ahead of this game. Even before the season began the Dolphins were in talks about rebuilding which is never a good sign before a team has played their first game. But it’s a short week for both organizations and the Bills are huge favorites in this matchup. It’s time to dig into Week 3 and dive into another Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown Playbook!

 

 

 

Dolphins vs. Bills DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 9/18

The visiting Miami Dolphins come to town 0-2 after a couple tough losses. In Week 1 they just did not look like themselves against the Indianapolis Colts. In Week 2 they looked better but lost a close back & forth game to the New England Patriots.

The team is a bit of a mess. Defensively they’re horrible. They might be the worst defense in the league. The defensive line is supposed to be their strength and they haven’t performed well so far. On the offensive side, Tyreek Hill is rumored to be on his way out, possibly in a trade back to Kansas City. And Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat. It’s been rumored that he’s lost the respect of the locker room and it definitely feels like he’s in his last year with the Dolphins as head coach.

The good news for fantasy football and DFS is that everything on offense is consolidated. Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t made many great strides at the NFL level, but this team is fairly predictable. Tyreek Hill bounced back last week and De’Von Achane is heavily involved and has big play upside. With Jaylen Waddle questionable in this matchup, it’s likely the Fins try to lean heavily on those two. But that just means the defense knows where to give its attention.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are just a well-oiled machine. Even in a game like Week 2 when Allen doesn’t find the end zone at all, the Bills are still the kind of team that can drop 30 points on an opponent and win easily.

It’s surprising that even on a short week, this game has the third-highest implied total for Week 3. Let’s take a look at how Vegas and the sportsbooks view this AFC East matchup ahead of our TNF DFS picks.

 

 

 

Dolphins vs. Bills TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Dolphins +12.5 (-108)
    • Bills -12.5 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Dolphins (+575)
    • Bills (-850)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 49.5 (-112)
    • Under 49.5 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Dolphins +11.5 (-106)
    • Bills -11.5 (-114)
  • Money Line:
    • Dolphins (+570)
    • Bills (-820)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 49.5 (-118)
    • Under 49.5 (-104)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Dolphins vs. Bills TNF, September 18th 

As this game kicks off Thursday night, there will be no weather concerns and the skies should be clear. Temperatures will start in the high 60’s and drop about a degree every hour. Winds will not be a threat and shouldn’t exceed more than 10 miles per hour.

 

Dolphins vs. Bills Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 3

The Miami Dolphins injury report is pretty loaded following Wednesday’s practice. The secondary will be without Storm Duck and Ifeatu Melifonwu. Defensively we’re also monitoring the situations with Benito Jones and Chop Robinson, who are both questionable. Darren Waller has once again been ruled out as well, so the organization is still waiting on his debut. The biggest situation we’re monitoring lies with Jaylen Waddle who is questionable with a shoulder injury.

The Buffalo Bills injury report is entirely on the defensive side of the ball following Wednesday’s practice. Matt Milano and Ed Oliver have been ruled out. Shaq Thompson, Taron Johnson, and Cam Lewis are all listed as questionable as well.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $12,400 | FanDuel: $14,200

If you’re a fantasy owner of Josh Allen, you were probably pretty frustrated last week. The Bills beat the New York Jets 30-10 and he didn’t throw or run for a single touchdown. So yeah, you were probably pretty pissed off. But was that the case in Week 1?

When I previewed the Bills vs. Ravens DFS picks for Sunday Night Football in Week 1 I touched on Allen’s upside and how he put up nearly 100 combined fantasy points on DraftKings in back-to-back weeks last season. In Week 1 he threw for nearly 400 yards, two touchdowns, and he ran for two more touchdowns as well. He eclipsed 40 fantasy points and that’s the upside he offers for Showdown slates.

Now last week was a James Cook game. The offense runs through these two and they hold a ton of touchdown equity. There are going to be the occasional duds, but the ceiling is massive with this guy. I’m expecting some positive regression as it’s hard to see him staying out of the end zone in consecutive games.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $12,200

The Dolphins aren’t very good but Achane’s usage and production really can top the charts. Last week Achane played 94% of the snaps (career-high) and saw a 31% target share (also a career-high) according to Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports.

The efficiency will fluctuate depending on if he can break off for a big run or two each week. His value comes in the passing game where so far through two games he’s caught 11-of-14 targets for 112 yards and a pair of touchdowns. That kind of receiving production for a running back is highly valuable.

Achane’s game logs against the Bills are actually really impressive. It seems like he always tends to show up against Buffalo. In October 2023, he rushed for 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns while adding three receptions for 19 yards. Then in the season finale that same year he found the end zone on 56 rushing yards but was used sparingly to be healthy for the playoffs.

In Week 2 last year against Buffalo, he rushed for 96 yards and caught all seven targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. And then when the teams met again last November, he rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown while catching all eight targets for 58 yards and another score. But he’s scored six touchdowns in four games against the Bills so the ceiling is quite high.

One concern I have with Achane is the offensive line. On 38.1% of Miami’s rush attempts, first contact with the defense is occurring behind the line of scrimmage. That mark is second-worst in the league according to Fantasy Points Data. Fortunately, he’s used heavily in the passing game which is perfect for our DraftKings lineups.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $11,600

If there was a touchdown regression candidate entering the 2025 NFL season it was probably James Cook, but that has certainly not been the case. He had 18 total touchdowns in the 2024 regular season and so far in 2025 he has three.

Even if the snaps and usage are dialed back on paper, he’s still producing. For example, Cook only saw 49.5% of the offensive snaps last week but still generated 132 yards on 21 carries with a pair of touchdowns. So the offensive snaps are a bit misleading during the blowouts but the offense clearly runs through him and Josh Allen.

On Thursday Night Football last year against the Dolphins in Week 2, Cook popped for three total touchdowns on just 95 total yards with a dozen touches. So again, a blowout is entirely possible in this game. And if that’s the case it’s likely because Cook and Allen are going off for huge performances.

Remember that running back line-of-scrimmage stat from the De’Von Achane section? The Bills offensive line is far and away better than Miami’s. 12.5% of the running back rush attempts by Buffalo result in contact behind the line of scrimmage and that’s third-best in the NFL through two weeks.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $11,000

As of this writing (Wednesday afternoon), Jaylen Waddle is questionable to play Thursday night with a shoulder injury. So I feel pretty good elevating Hill to this section especially after he went for over 100 yards last week against the New England Patriots.

There have been some concerns with Hill and his production and speed early on, but he’s looked just fine to the naked eye. Even in Week 1 where Tua Tagovailoa only had 114 passing yards, Tyreek Hill accounted for 40 of those receiving yards and he led the team in targets. And by going to 100+ yards last week we saw that he can still go for the big games.

In Week 2, Hill had an average separation score of 0.137 which was top 20 among 96 qualified receivers. But for Hill to have a big game in this matchup it almost feels like it has to come through volume. Hill hasn’t recorded a reception of 30+ yards in over a full calendar year. And to that point, the Bills play Cover 2 and Cover 3 on over half their defensive snaps because they don’t want to give up explosive plays over the top. And that’s fine. If Waddle’s injury funnels more targets to Hill and Achane then we’re sitting pretty with these two as Captain recommendations.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $10,800

Tua is a fine play. He correlates well with any of his pass catchers at Captain. But I struggle with labeling Tua as a “core” play. There are certainly players on this slate with higher ceilings, and he’s playing behind a terrible offensive line that may not be able to keep him upright.

If there’s a bright spot it’s that Tua has played pretty well in Buffalo under Mike McDaniel. He’s completed 72% of his passes averaging 249 yards per game with five touchdowns and one interception. But he’s still never won a game in Buffalo.

Confidence also seems to be an issue as well. He’s turned it over four times in two games. You’ve also probably seen his quote about Josh Allen where Tua admits he “can’t do half of what he (Josh Allen) does,” but it was largely taken out of context as he was trying to give Allen praise for his rushing upside. But it’s because of that reality that Tua is a great Flex option in tournaments. But the variance to his game keeps him from being a core play.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $8,600

It’s a weird slate, and Waddle is Questionable, but I think he suits up Thursday night. Obviously if he doesn’t then we pivot off him. We have plenty of other options and pivots for this slate. There isn’t a consistent Bills pass catcher dominating target share. And that offense runs through Allen and Cook. All their pass catchers are worth exposure at their prices, but it’s hard to pin point the one we like the most.

Waddle is a bit of a touchdown-dependent player. He only has 11 targets on the season, but he’s involved and rarely comes off the field. But the reality is that he’s the third pass catching option for Tua. In his last three games against Buffalo, Waddle has a total of 10 receptions for 83 yards. That’s an average of 6.1 points per game in PPR formats.

Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $8,000

DraftKings is really making you blindly guess the Bills receiver that gets volume or finds the end zone. No player is in the $7K range on DraftKings. There’s Waddle at $8,800 and then a $2,000 drop to Coleman at $6,800. No Bills receiver stands out in terms of pricing because nobody has a significant grip on the team’s target share.

Coleman was great in Week 1 where he caught 8-of-11 targets for 112 yards and he found the end zone. But last week he saw just three targets in a blowout. I do believe all the Bills pass catchers are playable if you think about it as diversifying your financial portfolio. That includes Kahlil Shakir, who I won’t write up in depth. Both Coleman and Shakir are running 72.3% of the team’s wide receiver routes according to Fantasy Points Data. Coleman is leading the team in yards per route run (2.30 YPRR) and targets per route run (0.23 TPRR). The big tiebreaker in leaning towards Coleman over Shakir is that Coleman has a 30% share of the team’s air yards while Shakir is at 16.7%. Get exposure to both but I give more of an edge to Coleman.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Joshua Palmer, WR, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $5,400

For all the kind things I said about Keon Coleman, and all the stats that are in his favor, there’s reason to be bullish on Palmer over Shakir. Shakir is running more routes than Palmer through two games but Palmer isn’t far behind at a 66.3% rate. Both receivers have seven receptions, but Palmer has three more targets. The underlying metrics are also in Palmer’s favor:

  • Joshua Palmer: 27.7% Air Yards Share, 1.96 YPRR, 0.22 TPRR
  • Kahlil Shakir: 16.7% Air Yards Share, 1.27 YPRR, 0.15 TPRR

Now Coleman, Palmer, and Shakir are the preferred targets for the Bills receivers. They’re the only three seeing over 25% of the routes.

Malik Washington, WR, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $2,800

Waddle is questionable and if he’s inactive then Washington’s usage and ownership are due to spike. Washington also gets return work as we saw last week when he returned a punt 74 yards for a touchdown against the Patriots. Despite being buried on the depth chart, the Dolphins are getting him manufactured touches even though it’s a small sample size and the work as a returner helps. Through two games he has four carries and three receptions on seven targets. If Waddle’s out then Washington should see more work.

But Darren Waller has been ruled out as well so that should keep Washington involved enough to pay off this price tag. But if you do need some cheap punts on the Miami side then consider Julian Hill or Tanner Conner. Both are incredibly affordable tight ends but neither have been heavily featured lately. They’ll be very cheap leverage options, but this offense really does consolidate their targets and touches.

Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $2,600 | FanDuel: $2,200

Determining which value running back to target from the Bills requires your own perspective on game theory and how this matchup plays out. Ty Johnson is in play as well but let’s dissect how things have gone through two games.

In Week 1 the Bills got into a shootout with the Baltimore Ravens which saw Buffalo run 78(!) offensive plays. Ty Johnson saw 32.1% of the offensive snaps in that game. He only had two carries but also had two targets. In last week’s blowout win over the New York Jets, James Cook played about half the offensive snaps. However, Davis saw 26.8% of the snaps with nine carries and Ty Johnson saw 22.5% with two carries. 

If this turns into a blowout I imagine Davis gets more of the work in the second half. For a short week, it is surprising that the Bills are such heavy favorites with an implied team total of 31 points. Vegas is projecting this one to possibly be a blowout so I’m leaning toward Davis to get some late run. But if you need an absolute punt who can maybe get a late goal line touchdown then Reggie Gilliam at the bare minimum price tag is an option to help your lineup become very contrarian.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Despite the fact this is a Showdown slate and a short week, it’s so hard to feel good about the Miami Dolphins D/ST. And there is a wide gap in pricing between the Bills D/ST and Miami’s. The Bills are $5,800 on DraftKings while they’re $7,400 on FanDuel. By comparison the Dolphins are $3,000 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel.

With Buffalo having a 31-point implied team total I’m probably not going to roster Miami at all. This defense has surrendered 33 points in back-to-back games with just four sacks and no defensive takeaways. The only reason they salvaged eight fantasy points in Week 2 was because of a punt return for a touchdown. After two weeks this defense ranks dead last in defensive EPA/DB (0.48) so against the league’s MVP and an offense that can move the ball well, the Dolphins D/ST just doesn’t seem worth rostering with such a low floor.

The Bills D/ST even gives me some pause. They’re more towards the middle-of-the-pack in defensive EPA/DB (0.06) but they got into an offensive war with the Ravens in Week 1. The Bills did return 10 fantasy points last week as they kept the New York Jets in check. But Justin Fields also left that game with a concussion and the Jets totaled just 154 yards of offense. The price tag is where I’m struggling with Buffalo. On DraftKings they’re more expensive than the likes of the kickers and a few affordable pieces of Buffalo’s passing game. So that does turn me off. But if that’s the case we may just get this D/ST as leverage if everyone else is turned off by this price. But I still never get excited about paying this much for a D/ST on Showdown slates.

Matt Prater is going to be trendy as he’s $800 cheaper than the Bills D/ST and has delivered the goods through two weeks. He’s made all six of his field goal attempts and all five extra point attempts as well. He’s a nice piece to add as a Flex play especially when you consider that a kicker hits the top 1% of Showdown lineups about 50% of the time.

Riley Patterson is a cheaper option, but I’d prefer to just use him as a Flex play in lineups that are Dolphins stacks (5:1 or 4:2) or they’re 3:3 builds with a Dolphins player at Captain. That’s mostly a correlation play on the off chance the Dolphins win this game in big fashion. Otherwise, Prater is probably the best play among the kickers and D/ST’s.

 

 

 

Dolphins vs. Bills DFS Player Pool: TNF, 9/18

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