We close out the 12th Sunday of the 2025 NFL season with a primetime matchup as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Southern California to take on the Los Angeles Rams in primetime! You have to love a primetime matchup on Sunday Night Football that could also potentially be a playoff preview. Both these teams currently lead their respective divisions, but despite recent success these two teams haven’t met in the NFL Playoffs since 2021 when Tom Brady was the starting quarterback for the Bucs. We have a high total for this game and the Rams are sizable favorites at home. Let’s dive into the latest Sunday Night Football DFS Playbook with our Buccaneers vs. Rams DFS Picks!

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Rams DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 11/23

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the road team in this matchup. The Bucs had a great start to their season going 6-2 heading into their Bye week. But over their last two games, they’ve gone 0-2 against the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. The NFL did them no scheduling favors as a third straight loss looms in Week 12.

Injuries, especially on offense, have hampered the Bucs for a majority of the season. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have missed significant time. Tristan Wirfs wasn’t ready for the start of the season and other parts of the offensive line have been struck down because of injuries. More recently, Bucky Irving hasn’t played since the end of September and has been ruled out for Week 12 with suspicion he may not return this year.

The Los Angeles Rams, on the other hand, have looked unbeatable of late. They’re riding a five-game winning streak which includes four wins over potential playoff teams. On this five-game streak they’ve outscored their opponents by a margin of +84 points.

Sean McVay has found a new love for 13-personnel usage (three-tight end sets). It all started when Puka Nacua got hurt against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5. McVay experimented with the personnel package and found some success with it. Over the last five weeks McVay has used this package usage 35-40% of the time depending on game flow. But it’s working for the offense and unfortunately, we have seen Puka Nacua’s usage take a bit of a hit. Aside from maybe the Pittsburgh Steelers, we don’t see any other team using three-tight end sets more than 15% of the time. But for our SNF DFS picks, this little nugget puts multiple affordable tight ends in play for us. And the FAmily will certainly use that to our advantage. Let’s look at the Buccaneers vs. Rams DFS picks to dominate our NFL DFS Showdown contests on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Rams SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Buccaneers +7 (-112)
    • Rams -7 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Buccaneers (+285)
    • Rams (-360)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 49.5 (-112)
    • Under 49.5 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Buccaneers +7 (-110)
    • Rams -7 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Buccaneers (+300)
    • Rams (-375)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 49.5 (-110)
    • Under 49.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Buccaneers vs. Rams SNF, November 23rd

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment so there are no weather concerns for our Buccaneers vs. Rams DFS picks.

 

Buccaneers vs. Rams Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 12

As of Saturday night, the Bucs have ruled out Ben Bredeson, Jamel Dean, and Haason Reddick. Bucky Irving has also been ruled out, but the team has said they expect him to return in Week 13. Chris Godwin Jr. is questionable but he is expected to make his return for his first game since Week 5. 

The Los Angeles Rams are looking healthier as they’re only listing offensive tackle, David Quessenberry, as questionable. We should be on the lookout for some healthy inactives 90 minutes prior to kickoff just to make sure we aren’t rostering any cheap players that have been ruled out.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams - DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $12,800

I don’t like saying this but Puka is a bit of a tough read for our Buccaneers vs. Rams DFS picks for Sunday night. And this is a guy who, when healthy, should see at least eight targets. His 85.9% catch rate is the best in the league entering Week 12 and he and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are the only receivers in the NFL averaging over 3.00 yards per route run among qualified receivers (100+ routes run).

However, the reason Nacua is a tough read is because, while the floor is great, the ceiling has been capped recently with the Rams increased usage of 13 personnel. Over his last three games since the team’s Bye week, he still has two touchdowns while catching 19-of-22 targets for 234 yards. In that three-game span his route share has dropped to 63.6% which ranks 66th out of 108 receivers according to Dataroma.

Perhaps this is an opportunity for him to get back to double-digit targets but the Rams also seem pretty committed to preserving him as he’s lost games due to injury each of the last two seasons.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $11,200

Matthew Stafford has played at such an elite level this season that he’s receiving the highest PFF grade (92.3) among qualified quarterbacks. There have been MVP talks, but this team is focused on a Super Bowl. And at this stage in Stafford’s career, he probably only cares about winning a second title.

According to Sam Hoppen, Stafford is top 12 among quarterbacks in EPA/Play (0.19), success rate (51.7%), turnover-worthy play rate (2.1%), and average depth of target (8.7). He has some of the best weapons at his disposal and a great offensive line that ranks 7th in pressure rate allowed (27.2%) and pass block win rate (70%). Stafford has only been sacked six times in his last six games.

Stafford doesn’t have much rushing upside, especially at this stage of his career. However, given that the Rams have an implied team total of 28 points, you have to imagine if they’re running up the score then he’s a big reason why.

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $9,800

The production for Egbuka has regressed a little bit. In his last four games he has hauled in only 18 receptions and crossed 60 receiving yards once with just one touchdown in that span. The good news is that the volume has still been there because he’s averaging 10.75 targets per game.

The Rams are a great matchup for Tampa pass catchers for our SNF DFS picks. The Rams are allowing the 5th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers and this is potentially a negative game script for Egbuka and Co.

Egbuka still has big play upside as he’s second among all receiver in receptions of 20+ yards (15) behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In his last three games, over half his routes are breaking horizontally and he touts a 34% target per route run rate on these exact routes per Jacob Gibbs. And according to Fantasy Points, while Egbuka ranks as the WR29 in fantasy points since Week 6, he also ranks as the WR6 in expected fantasy points. He’s a positive regression candidate with a great schedule the rest of the way and he should start turning it around in Week 12.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Baker Mayfield, QB, Houston Buccaneers – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $11,600

Baker is still an exciting player to watch but we should be mindful of the possibility that he may be playing through an injury. Over his last four games, where the Bucs have gone 1-3, he’s completing just 60% of his pass attempts for just 206.5 yards per game. And in that four-game sample size he has just five touchdown passes.

Last week he did run for 39 yards and a score on the ground. But mind you, those were his first rushing yards since Week 6 and overall, that’s his only rushing touchdown on the season.

For the more recent warts in his game, I struggle with recommending him as a Captain on this slate. He’s dropped to 15th in EPA/Play (0.11) among qualified quarterbacks but he’s also 22nd in success rate (44.2%), 24th in completion percentage over expected (-2.5%), and 26th in turnover-worthy play rate (4.1%) according to Sam Hoppen. Let’s utilize him if we’re looking to correlate him with a pass catcher but I’m not entirely sold this is a break-the-slate kind of matchup for Mayfield.

Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $10,400

Adams is also a bit impacted by the implementation of the 13 personnel in recent weeks but the production has hardly fallen off. Now the numbers are somewhat fluky because he’s scored seven touchdowns in his last four games which will be difficult to sustain, but he’s still seeing about eight targets per game.

We know this can be a good matchup for opposing pass catchers and he leads all receivers in touchdowns on the season. There’s a good floor here with volume and you can play him at Captain if you see fit. But I don’t think he gets as many targets as Nacua and Adams only has one game this year with 100+ receiving yards. So if he’s going to be optimal at Captain, he may need to find the end zone multiple times because he’s averaging right around 57 receiving yards per game.

Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $5,800

While we like the affordable tight ends on the L.A. side of the slate, we can’t overlook Tampa’s tight end, who has seen phenomenal usage amidst the injuries for Tampa Bay. Over the last seven weeks he touts a 21% target share which is 6th among qualified tight ends. Otton also gets a great matchup for our SNF DFS picks as the Rams defense has bled production to opposing tight ends in recent weeks.

Los Angeles has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the tight end position according to Liz Loza of ESPN and they gave up 19 total receptions to George Kittle and A.J. Barner in their last two games while allowing three touchdowns in as many games to the position. The Bucs are also underdogs in this matchup with a game script that is projecting offense on both sides. This is a great spot to utilize him as a flex play for our NFL DFS Showdown lineups.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

Kyren’s workload isn’t heavily impacted by the 13 personnel narrative of late. However, he has lost some touches to Blake Corum who has sniped a few short yardage and goal line carries this season. But Williams did join Jahmyr Gibbs as the only two running backs with 40+ touchdowns over the last three years.

What will always keep him in play is the touchdown equity. He has nine total on the season including four in three games since the team’s Bye week. In two of their last four games the Bucs defense has allowed 160+ rushing yards. But I struggle listing him as a core play because of Corum’s increased role in the offense. Since Week 7, Kyren touts a 57.8% rush share while Corum is at 42.4%. Fortunately for the Kyren Williams truthers, the overall production is still on his side. At this price tag I don’t like playing him at Captain though.

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $5,400

If we’re looking at specifically pricing, Godwin is probably a better play on FanDuel than DraftKings. We don’t quite know what to expect from Godwin, but the Bucs obviously don’t want to drop a third straight game. So it does feel like it’s “all hands on deck” for Tampa.

When healthy, we know he’s a high-end wide receiver. When he made his debut back in Week 4, he saw 10 targets and the following week he had four more prior to getting injured. But it’s hard to tell what we should expect. He suffered a season-ending injury a year ago and has played in a limited sample size so far this season. With the emergence of Emeka Egbuka, Godwin likely isn’t the team’s WR1 Sunday night and he is at risk of re-injury. I prefer taking the value on FanDuel where he’s arguably a core play at that price but on DraftKings I do prefer Egbuka, Otton, and the next two running backs over Godwin.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $8,600

Sean Tucker, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $8,400

Rachaad White saw a significant bump in usage once Bucky Irving got hurt. However, he was wildly inefficient as a pure runner. Since Week 5 he only has one game averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry and that came last week but it was Sean Tucker’s big blowup spot. White at least still has some appeal in the passing game. He does have 20 receptions dating back to Week 5, but he also hasn’t scored since Week 6.

Most of the field is going to flock to Sean Tucker, and for good reason. Tucker’s been more efficient and he’s scored five times since Week 6 with three of those scores coming last week. But the matchup is tough for both as the Rams rank 4th in defensive EPA/Rush (-0.13) and they’re 2nd in run stop win rate (34%).

A few reports and rumors are making their rounds that the Bucs are going to lean heavier on Tucker for tonight’s game. I do believe that should be the case given how inefficient White has been with the larger workload but it’s a very difficult matchup for both.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Tez Johnson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $7,400

DraftKings and FanDuel seem to disagree on who to value more between Chris Godwin and Tez Johnson. Godwin is priced up on DraftKings while he’s a nice value on FanDuel. For Tez Johnson it’s the opposite. I feel comfortable still getting exposure to Tez in this matchup. Godwin will likely run most of his routes out of the slot which will probably limit Sterling Shepard. Tez has also carved out a little touchdown equity with four scores since Week 6. He should still get plenty of attention especially if the Bucs are trailing at any point.

Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,200

As we mentioned at the top of the article, and Andrew Cooper has been saying this of late, Blake Corum is indeed getting more run. It’s starting to feel as if the Rams backfield is a 1A/1B situation. Kyren has still touted the production but according to Dataroma, Corum “outpaced” Williams in expected fantasy points in Week 11 with 14.4 XFP compared to Kyren’s 12.2 XFP.

The production hasn’t impressed which is probably why the fantasy community is still bullish on Kyren. For a one-game NFL DFS Showdown slate, I do really like Corum’s potential if he’s going to continue forward with 10-12 touches per week.

The Los Angeles Rams Tight Ends

As we mentioned at the top of the article, the Rams are running more 13 personnel featuring three-tight end sets. It’s not like they’re utilizing it for more than half their offensive snaps, but a 35-40% clip is pretty significant which has been the trend of late.

Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, and Terrance Ferguson are all very affordable for this slate. If we’re looking for a little more volume, then Parkinson might be the play. However, there’s touchdown equity with this cheap group. Parkinson has scored in back-to-back weeks, Allen scored in Week 10, and Ferguson scored in Week 7 prior to the team’s Bye week. That’s four touchdowns to L.A.’s tight ends in the team’s last four games. If you hit the cheap TE that finds the end zone, your lineups are sitting pretty.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

The implied total is obviously very high as we’re pushing almost 50 points. And both teams have implied team totals north of 20 points. The Buccaneers D/ST seems like an easy spot to avoid. The Rams are the favorites at home with an implied total of 28 points. That’s not exactly comforting since the Bucs just allowed 72 combined points to the Patriots and Bills.

As a credit to Tampa Bay, they’re good against the run. They rank 10th in defensive EPA/Rush (-0.11), 1st in rush success rate (32.8%), and 2nd in stuffed run rate (25%). They’re allowing about 100 rushing yards per game. I’m not completely fading the L.A. running game for this reason but I’m keeping it in mind ahead of this matchup.

The Rams defense is arguably just as good against the run but the Rams are really good at forcing turnovers in bunches. In five of their last seven games they’ve forced at least two turnovers (14 total in that span) while allowing just 13 points per game in their last five games. Given the injuries to Tampa, and the recent regression of Baker Mayfield, I’m more inclined to roster the Rams D/ST than the Bucs but both will appear in the table below.

The kicker situation is very muddy for the Los Angeles Rams. Harrison Mevis received the last two starts for L.A. after Joshua Karty missed five field goals from Week 3-9. But Mevis hasn’t been called upon for a field goal attempt in his two starts. He’s only kicked extra points but at least he’s made all nine. We’ll keep an ear to the ground to see who the Rams go with in Week 12. For now, I’m downgrading both because the Rams average 3.5 touchdowns per game and only 1.5 field goal attempts per game.

Chase McLaughlin has had the best season of the kickers we’re considering for this game. But at the same time, the Bucs offense has struggled at times since their Bye week. McLaughlin has only three FGA’s in his last two games. On the season they do average 2.4 field goal attempts per game which is nearly a full attempt more than what we’re getting out of the kickers from L.A. But he’s also the kicker for the underdog in this matchup and if the Bucs ever find them in position where they’re trailing, they may abandon the idea of settling for three points.

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Rams DFS Player Pool: SNF, 11/23

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