Week 12 of the NFL season is upon us and we kick things off with an AFC matchup as the Buffalo Bills head to Texas to go toe-to-toe with the Houston Texans. The Bills come into this matchup fresh off a huge win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where Josh Allen basically won the game on his own. But the Houston Texans, with Davis Mills as their quarterback, have won back-to-back games to get back to a .500 record. They’re now in a tie with the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens as all three teams sit one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. This is a fairly meaningful game for both organizations and hopefully they can deliver on a short week. Let’s take a look at this week’s Bills vs. Texans DFS picks for Thursday Night Football!

 

 

 

Bills vs. Texans DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 11/20

Week 11 was that typical Josh Allen performance where he needed to step up and win the game for the team. There are some matchups for Buffalo where it just doesn’t feel like Allen has to do much. That was the case in Week 10 when Buffalo took a surprising loss to the Miami Dolphins. But this past week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Josh Allen threw for three touchdowns and ran for three touchdowns. That’s only been done three times in the history of the NFL and Allen is responsible for two of those performances, with his first performance coming against the Los Angeles Rams. Otto Graham also did it in the 1954 NFL Championship.

The Bills still don’t quite fully control their own destiny. They hold the 5th seed in the AFC playoff picture and sit a game-and-a-half behind the New England Patriots for the AFC East crown. They’ve looked flawed at times but when they play like they did in Week 11 they look like the team to beat in the AFC.

The Houston Texans likely aren’t winning their third straight AFC South division title. The Indianapolis Colts have looked outstanding this year, but the Texans have a pulse at 5-5 to earn a Wild Card spot. It’ll be difficult given the landscape of the AFC and because there are plenty of good teams in spots to also contend for a Wild Card bid. But the Texans have the kind of defense that makes you think they could make some noise in the playoffs. They don’t give up a ton of yardage and they generate a good amount of pressure to disrupt opposing offenses.

Will the Bills offense prevail in this matchup? Or will the Texans defense stand firm and keep the Bills in check? Let’s dive into the Bills vs. Texans DFS picks and find an edge as we kick off Week 12!

 

 

 

Bills vs. Texans TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Bills -6 (-112)
    • Texans +6 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Bills (-298)
    • Texans (+240)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 43.5 (-102)
    • Under 43.5 (-118)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Bills -5.5 (-122)
    • Texans +5.5 (+100)
  • Money Line:
    • Bills (-290)
    • Texans (+235)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 43.5 (-110)
    • Under 43.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Bills vs. Texans TNF, November 20th

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment so there are no weather concerns for our Bills vs. Texans DFS picks.

 

Bills vs. Texans Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 12

As of Wednesday, the Bills have ruled out Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, and Mecole Hardman. Defensive tackle, Phidarian Mathis, is questionable after being slapped with the “limited at practice” label the last two days. Khalil Shakir didn’t practice at all this week but read on to his section to find out why.

The Houston Texans had an injury report about as long as your kid’s Christmas list. As of Wednesday, they’ve ruled out C.J. Stroud, Jamal Hill, and Jalen Pitre. The rest of their injury report was listed as full participants so we should expect a couple more healthy scratches 90 minutes before kickoff Thursday night.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $12,400 | FanDuel: $13,600

Josh Allen basically did what we all know he’s capable of doing any given week. The six-touchdown performance is the kind of ceiling we chase with Allen especially on Showdown slates. Do I think he has that 40-50 point upside for our TNF DFS picks? I don’t think so because those are rare performances. But 25-30 points feels within reach.

With each passing week the New England Patriots go without a loss, the Buffalo Bills find themselves running out of time to regain the lead in the AFC East. If Buffalo wants a first-round Bye in the playoffs, then they can’t afford additional losses. But this is still a tough matchup for Allen and Co. on Thursday.

These two teams met in Week 5 last year in Houston. The Texans defense forced Allen to complete just 30% of his pass attempts for 131 yards and a touchdown but he somewhat salvaged the performance with 54 rushing yards.

On a short week, the matchup is tough but there’s no doubting that Allen will be the best player on the field Thursday night and his ability to rack up production will always play on any NFL DFS Showdown slate.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $12,000

If it isn’t going to be the Josh Allen show, then it’s likely to be James Cook lighting up the opposing defense. Cook has appeared in all 10 games for Buffalo this season grabbing the 100-yard DraftKings bonus in half his games played. He also has eight total touchdowns on the year so we’re getting a nice floor/ceiling combination.

Similar to Allen, Cook was kept in check to a degree when these two teams met in 2024. However, Cook still managed 82 rushing yards and a score while adding two receptions for some added production. It wasn’t a break-the-slate kind of performance. but it sufficed.

Cook had an odd stretch of games where he wasn’t heavily involved in the passing game, but he does have eight receptions in his last two performances. I’m hoping the poor rushing performances in his last two games aren’t signaling any sort of injury because he gets the desired volume we seek for a Showdown slate and he’s a great pivot off his teammate.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $12,400

Collins has really taken off the last two weeks with Davis Mills as the team’s starting quarterback. From Weeks 1-9, Collins averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game per DraftKings scoring. Over the last two weeks with Mills, he’s averaging 24.9 points with 16 receptions on 25 targets for 228 yards and a touchdown.

As I’ll highlight later in the article, the Bills are a tough matchup for a lot of pass catchers. But we can’t deny Collins’ volume with four straight games seeing double-digit targets. The ceiling might be a bit lower than normal especially on a short week. But if he’s active for this matchup he should receive plenty of attention from Davis Mills for the third straight week.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $10,400

If you’re going to beat the Buffalo Bills anywhere, it’s going to be on the ground. I don’t have the most confidence in Houston’s running game, but the Bills allow the second-most rushing yards per game (153.0) and the second-most yards per carry (5.4).

Marks does appear to be the guy for Houston. Last week he handled 18-of-21 carries and had all the goal line work. For fantasy football and our TNF DFS picks, we do place more value on those high value touches, and he’s ranked 14th in expected fantasy points over the last two weeks. But Marks himself isn’t a model of efficiency as he’s averaging 3.5 yards per carry and he touts just a 0.03 missed tackles forced per attempt.

He does carry some usage in the passing game with at least three targets in four of his last five games since Houston’s Bye week. But despite the volume, he does need to find the end zone. Luckily the matchup is as good as they come for our Bills vs. Texans DFS picks.

Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $7,600

I’m a little surprised Higgins is priced so low on DraftKings which operates with a full point per reception scoring format. He has back-to-back games with exactly seven targets and in three of his last four games he’s seen at least seven targets with two touchdowns in that span.

According to Dataroma, in that span he’s seen his route share increase from 41.2% to 54.6%, his targets per route run rate has improved from 0.14 to 0.23, and his first-read target share jumped from 7.4% to 16.3%. Given the price and the recent involvement, I feel pretty good about including Higgins as a core play considering the recent trends in his usage.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Davis Mills, QB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $11,600

The matchup isn’t the best for Mills. The Bills defense is giving up the second-fewest passing yards per game (169.7) and the second-fewest pass attempts per game (27.2). The matchup isn’t as good for the air specialists in this game as it is for Houston’s running backs, but we’ll get to Woody Marks next.

Mills has injected some life into this offense. According to Jacobs Gibbs of CBS Sports, a Houston Texans quarterback has only produced 200+ air yards in two games this year and those just so happen to be the games where Mills started. In those two games he’s averaging 253 air yards and roughly an 8.0 average depth of target.

It’s a tough matchup and if you want to keep pace with Buffalo, then it’s honestly better to lean on the ground game to slow the pace down and keep Buffalo’s offense on the sidelines. But in a trailing or negative game script, Mills could be throwing it plenty and generating production for our NFL DFS Showdown lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Kahlil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills- DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $9,600

Just when you thought it was safe to play a Buffalo wide receiver in season-long fantasy football, the fantasy gods pulled the rug out from underneath you. From Weeks 8-10, Shakir averaged eight targets per game. Last week he saw only three and actually finished with negative receiving yards.

The matchup doesn’t get any easier against the Houston Texans and this doesn’t feel like the kind of game script that calls for heavy pass volume from Josh Allen. Not to mention, Keon Coleman should be available for this game and he’s priced incredibly low. But if Shakir sees some positive regression closer to eight targets per game rather than three, then Shakir can make some noise especially if most of the field pays down for cheaper receivers on Buffalo.

I do want to note that Shakir did not participate in practice or walk throughs this week because of the birth of his daughter. So if you think he can overcome the tough matchup with the “new dad” narrative then lock and load!

Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $7,400

Schultz actually has a few things working in his favor for this matchup. Over the last five games since Houston’s Bye week, Schultz has seen 41(!) total targets and he’s caught 30 of them for 303 receiving yards. But Schultz only has one touchdown on the season and we’ve already highlighted the shortcomings of opposing offenses through the air against Buffalo.

If you’ll recall in last week’s NFL DFS TE Coach courtesy of our very own Andrew Cooper, he noted how difficult of a matchup the Bills are for opposing tight ends. Entering Week 10, opposing tight ends were only seeing 3.7 targets per game and Cade Otton only saw five last week, which he turned into two receptions for 28 yards, and one of those receptions came with under three minutes to go and went for 19 yards. So for 95% of the game, the Bills had allowed just one reception for nine yards to Tampa’s tight ends.

The overall production is enough for Schultz to still qualify for our Bills vs. Texans DFS picks. But the matchup is tough enough to keep him out of the core plays section.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $4,600

Dalton Kincaid has been ruled out for this game so Knox emerges as a good value play for our TNF DFS picks. I don’t trust any of the Buffalo pass catchers. None of them are necessarily locked in to see a majority of the targets. So I do have a pair of cheap Bills pass catchers because the even distribution of targets doesn’t necessarily help the more expensive players.

Kincaid missed last week’s game and yet that resulted in Knox seeing just three targets. He caught one of those for 23 yards. Not to mention, this tough defense don’t give up much production to opposing tight ends. The good news for Knox is that he played 77% of the team’s offensive snaps last week so that kind of field activity should carry over into Week 12 on the short week.

Nick Chubb, RB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $5,800

I don’t love the usage trends but if the Texans lean more on the run game Thursday night then they can’t give every carry to Woody Marks. The Bills give up production on the ground and even Sean Tucker popped for a huge game in Week 11 against this defense.

Chubb’s volume was down last week as he had just three touches. But that could mean he’s a bit fresher for this matchup. Let’s also acknowledge the price tag. Of all the Showdown slates the Texans have been involved in this year, this is Chubb’s cheapest price tag by $2,000 on DraftKings. In four games this year he’s returned at least eight fantasy points. So while the trends are more in Marks’ favor, I’m fine paying down to Chubb if he can collect some touches and maybe get us a cheap touchdown.

Tyrell Shavers, WR, Buffalo Bills – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $3,800

You’ll notice a serious lack of Buffalo wide receivers in this article, and for good reason because none of them can be trusted. The Bills offense runs through Josh Allen and James Cook. Whenever I’ve faced start/sit questions pertaining to the Buffalo Bills in Discord, I’m always pretty hesitant because I genuinely didn’t believe anyone in this offense would carry a target share over 20%.

And that was definitely the case this past week. The Bills attempted 30 passes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and nobody had more than five targets. So again, nobody even had an 18% target share in a game the Bills scored 40+ points. That’s why when the Bills are featured in a Showdown Playbook, I only feel good about Allen and Cook as Captain recommendations.

Now we preview Shavers because he popped for a big game last week but granted, Keon Coleman, Elijah Moore, and Dalton Kincaid were inactive. Shavers delivered with four catches on five targets for 90 yards and a score. Can Shavers be trusted consistently going forward? I doubt it. But given the state of Buffalo’s wide receiver room, and the organization’s frustration with Coleman, it was the kind of performance that possibly makes them rethink snap distribution and allows Shavers to still see some work. And at $2,400 I think he’s worth a look if the Houston secondary is taking away the more recognizable pass catchers in this offense.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

The Bills come into this matchup with an implied team total of 24.75 points while the Texans are at 18.75 points. Thursday Night Football games are always tricky but at their best these offenses that can put up points. The Texans have a great defense as they rank 1st in defensive EPA/Pass (-0.19), 2nd in pass success rate (36.7%), and 1st in completion percentage over expected (-6.5%). This is one of the few matchups where they get downgraded  slightly and it all boils down to what Josh Allen can do in this game. Does he have a game like Week 11 where he’s responsible for six touchdowns? Or is it a game like in Week 10 when the Bills could only muster 13 points again the Miami Dolphins? For what it’s worth, Allen is averaging 31.4 fantasy points per game at home per DraftKings scoring. On the road, he’s averaging 19.2 fantasy points. Both D/ST’s are in play but based on what we’ve seen this season, the Texans have the higher ceiling but carry obvious risk. The Bills defense, on the other hand, has given up 83 points in their last three games.

Ka’imi Fairbairn has been a fantasy gem in both season-long leagues and daily contests. He’s averaging 11.9 fantasy points per game. However, he has missed the last two games for Houston, but Matthew Wright managed to convert all three of his field goal attempts last week with Mills under center. Fairbairn is slated to return in Week 12 and in five-of-nine games this season, he attempted at least three field goals with 10 total attempts in Weeks 8 and 9. That kind of volume and offensive inefficiency in the red zone will have him on our radar almost every week regardless of the matchup.

We have less optimism with Matt Prater for a couple reasons. For starters, he doesn’t get much volume with four total field goal attempts in his last five games. Since Week 3 he’s made a total of just seven field goals in that span after making six in the first two weeks of the season. Additionally, the Texans are just a bad matchup overall for opposing kickers. In 10 games this season, opposing place kickers are just 10-for-16 on field goal attempts against Houston and there were a couple games where the opposing kicker didn’t get a single attempt. If this game remains close and competitive then Prater is in play but if the Bills are racking up the touchdowns like last week then they may not give Prater too many opportunities.

 

 

 

Bills vs. Texans DFS Player Pool: TNF, 11/20

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