We are four weeks through the fantasy football season and of course, we are firmly in that time period where we look at buying low on guys that are off to slow starts, as well as selling high on guys that are outperforming expectations. For example, positive touchdown regression has to be in store for Joe Mixon and Darren Waller, given their elite usage and red zone prowess, making them a logical buy-low trade targets. On the other hand, someone like Zach Ertz seems to be a sell-high candidate with DeAndre Hopkins’ return on the horizon.

Red zone usage is key in fantasy football, as we’ll point out all year long. From red zone passing to rushing, to receiving, we’ll take a look at some notable numbers from the first two weeks of the season that can help your fantasy football teams the rest of the way. Using the red zone report here at Fantasy Alarm, here are the key numbers and notes in this week’s red zone analysis.

 

NFL Red Zone Passing for Week 4

Matthew Stafford, LAR

It’s not exactly butterflies and rainbows in Los Angeles right now. However, as bad as Stafford has been the past couple of weeks, there’s a reason for optimism. Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers have a combined 12 rushing attempts in the red zone, whereas Stafford is one of eight quarterbacks with at least 24 passing attempts in the red zone this season. He hasn’t been great, going 11-for-24 on those attempts, but Sean McVay is willing to throw it in the red zone, especially the closer they get! He has some tough matchups coming up, but if he gets hot, he’s going to go on an absolute run in Weeks 12-15 when the team faces the Chiefs, Seahawks, Raiders, and Packers. I’d be willing to buy low on Stafford as an upside QB2, with the hope that he could become the guy down the stretch.

Aaron Rodgers, GB

Simply put, Rodgers is efficient as they come in the red zone, and as the season goes on and his rapport builds with his new cast of receivers, things will only improve. Currently, Rodgers is 14-for-18 in the red zone with five touchdown passes. Inside the 10-yard line, he’s a perfect 7-for-7 with four scores. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are likely prominent guys for more positive touchdown regression, but we all know that Rodgers loves to get those “gimme” touchdowns near the goal line, taking them away from his running backs.

NFL Red Zone Rushing for Week 4

Joe Mixon, CIN

Could you imagine if Cincinnati could actually block for Joe Burrow or Joe Mixon? Mixon is tied for the league lead in rushing attempts but has just one touchdown to show for it. His usage rate in the red zone is elite, and one would expect that the touchdowns have to come sooner rather than later, right? It may be tough to buy low on a guy who has elite red zone usage and is on pace for his best season in the receiving department, but if you can, do it. Positive regression is in store for the Cincinnati bell cow. 

Jalen Hurts, PHI

Mixon is tied with Jalen Hurts for the most red zone rushing attempts in all of the NFL. Can you believe it? Hurts is an absolute fantasy monster, and while maintaining his elite rushing numbers, he’s improved as a passer, which was easily the biggest knock on him. He has 48 percent of the team’s rushing attempts in the red zone, and 55 percent of the team’s attempts inside the five-yard line. It’s not exactly a bold take at this point, but Hurts is looking every bit like one of the best fantasy quarterbacks this season. Potential QB1 finish anyone?

J.K. Dobbins, BAL

It’s hard to be upset with Dobbins’ usage thus far, particularly in the red zone. Nearly one-third of his touches last week came inside the 10-yard line, and he’s already supplanted Lamar Jackson as the team’s most-used rusher in the red zone this season. When Gus Edwards returns and gets to full health, what will this split look like? That part is hard to say, but as long as Edwards is out, and Justice Hill is sidelined, the other Baltimore backs are relative non-factors, and it’s the Jackson and Dobbins show.

NFL Red Zone Receiving for Week 4

Darren Waller, LV

It seems like this article is a bit loaded with buy-low guys, but here’s another one, if you want to call Waller that, given that he was a top-five tight end off the board in drafts this preseason. Waller’s numbers have been maddening, to say the least, but one would have to expect that positive touchdown regression is coming. The Raiders have been pass-happy in the red zone, and Waller has a 23 percent target share in the red zone. He’s tied with Mark Andrews for the third-most red zone targets at the position, and amongst those four tight ends, Waller is the only one with fewer than two scores (Ertz has 2, Kelce has 3, and Andrews has 3). If the Raiders continue to be pass-happy and given how bad their defense is, they will continue to throw it, and Waller is due for a resurgence.

Zach Ertz, ARI

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, but I would be looking to sell high on Ertz. DeAndre Hopkins’ return looms large, and while Ertz may still have a red zone role, it’s going to diminish. He has the second-most red zone targets in the NFL, trailing only Davante Adams, and half of his receptions in the red zone have gone for six points. Upon Hopkins’ return, I have an incredibly hard time believing that his 43 percent target share in the red zone will hold.

David Njoku, CLE

Look at Njoku go! He has a 31 percent target share in the red zone through the first four weeks of the season, and he’s living up to that upside that many saw in him leading into 2022 fantasy football drafts. He now has at least one target inside the 10-yard line and five targets overall in three straight games. He’s a guy you have to continue to start because it’s hard to deny the recent production and opportunity.

 


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