Welcome to the playoffs. The 2025-26 regular season is in the books, and we have a massive six-game Wild Card slate. Playoff DFS requires a keen eye on the data, and we’ve combed through the latest metrics—including DVOA and official yards-allowed rankings—to find your edge.

Below is the breakdown of the quarterback position, tiered by salary and expected value.

 

Top Picks

Drake Maye (NE) vs. LAC

Drake Maye enters the postseason as the clear QB1, backed by a 30+ touchdown campaign. While the Chargers statistically boast a top-10 unit, Maye's fantasy value is matchup-proof due to his "Konami Code" rushing floor. He finished the season with elite ground production that simply cannot be faded in cash games. The Chargers are disciplined, but Maye's volume in a game where New England might be chasing points makes him the safest floor play on the board.

Matthew Stafford (LAR) @ CAR

At 37, Matthew Stafford heads into a matchup against a Panthers defense that is mediocre at best. Carolina finished the season sitting in the bottom third of the league in DVOA efficiency. This suggests the Rams can move the ball at will. Stafford is fully healthy, though you must monitor Puka Nacua (knee) and the Charlotte weather for potential rain. If the skies clear, Stafford faces little resistance from a defense that lacks a premier pass rush.

Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. SF

Jalen Hurts is a top-tier play in the highest-total game of the weekend. The statistical matchup is far better than the public perception suggests; San Francisco actually finished the season allowing the 8th most passing yards per game. Their secondary has been susceptible to big plays, ranking 28th in Pass DVOA. Combined with a fierce pass rush that will flush Hurts from the pocket, likely leading to scramble yards, and his "Tush Push" equity, Hurts has the highest ceiling on the slate.

 

Mid Tier

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) vs. BUF

This is a contrarian "bet on volume" play. The Bills finished the regular season with a strong pass defense, but recent injuries have thinned their secondary, with two starting safeties banged up down the stretch. Lawrence has been steady, leading the Jaguars to the #3 seed. If the Bills' offense puts up points as expected, Lawrence will be forced to abandon the run and throw 40+ times, creating a path to fantasy relevance despite the difficult matchup.

Caleb Williams (CHI) vs. GB

The Bears are the #2 seed, but Caleb Williams faces a stiff test against a Packers defense that allowed the 11th fewest passing yards per game. The bigger story is the environment; forecasts for Soldier Field call for wind gusts up to 30 MPH and possible snow. Williams thrives on off-schedule plays, but these conditions could turn the game into a low-scoring grind. His rushing ability keeps his floor intact, but the weather makes him a volatile tournament-only option.

 

Value Tier

C.J. Stroud (HOU) @ PIT

C.J. Stroud is the best "scheme" play on the board. The Steelers feature an extreme "pass funnel" defense as they rank 13th against the run but allowed the 4th most passing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have consistently moved the ball through the air against Pittsburgh. With the Texans entering as 6.5-point underdogs, Stroud projects for massive passing volume in a negative game script against a secondary that bleeds yardage.

Justin Herbert (LAC) @ NE

Justin Herbert is a punt option for those needing salary relief. The Patriots' defense is stout, ranking 9th in passing yards allowed, so this is not an easy spot. However, Herbert has averaged 38 pass attempts per game over the last month as the Chargers have played from behind. If New England jumps out to an early lead, Herbert enters "garbage time" mode. You are betting on volume and a cheap price tag rather than efficiency here.

 

Fade

Aaron Rodgers (PIT) vs. HOU

Fade Aaron Rodgers. The Texans possess an elite defense, finishing the season ranked 2nd in Defensive DVOA and 6th in passing yards allowed. There is no weakness to exploit. The Steelers rank 2nd in the league in Rush Rate, meaning they will try to hide Rodgers and win a low-scoring defensive battle. His ceiling is non-existent in this spot.

Josh Allen (BUF) @ JAX

Fading Josh Allen is terrifying, but the matchup is brutal for his rushing production. The Jaguars finished the season with a top-ranked run defense, allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards per game. They have specialized in neutralizing mobile threats. While Allen can win with his arm, he is the most expensive QB on the slate and needs rushing touchdowns to pay off his salary. Facing a defense that erases the ground game lowers his floor significantly compared to cheaper options like Hurts or Maye

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