Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots: Market Overreaction and Drake Maye Prop Edge

The Seattle Seahawks enter Super Bowl LX with a 14-3 regular season record, while the New England Patriots also finished 14-3. Against the spread (ATS), Seattle covered at a 70.6% clip (12-5-0), narrowly edging New England’s 68.8% (11-5-1). Both teams have been elite for bettors all season, but Seattle’s slightly higher ATS margin (+7.1) and margin of victory (11.2) stand out compared to New England’s +6.2 and 10.0, respectively.

The market opened with Seattle as a -3.5 favorite, but sharp money and public action have pushed the line to -4.5, reflecting a market overreaction to recent dominance and injury news on both sides. The total has dropped from 46.5 to 45.5, signaling weather concerns and a lean toward the under. On the prop front, Drake Maye’s passing yards line is set at 222.5, 36 yards below his regular-season average of 258.5, suggesting that bookmakers are factoring in both weather volatility and his recent dip in production.

Injuries play a key role: Seattle is missing four key players, including two wide receivers (Cody White, Tory Horton), their RB2 (Zach Charbonnet), and a linebacker (Chazz Surratt). New England’s defensive line is thinned by Eric Gregory (IR) and Joshua Farmer (questionable). The model gives New England a 56% implied chance to cover compared to the market’s 51.2%, revealing a +4.8% edge for Patriots backers, yet the recommendation remains on Seattle -4.5 due to matchup specifics.

Weather will be a factor at Levi’s Stadium: cloudy skies, temperatures in the mid-50s, moderate winds up to 27 mph gusts, and over half an inch of rain expected with thunderstorms possible. The narrative leans toward lower scoring due to wind impacting deep passing and kicking games. Seattle may be less comfortable in these conditions than New England, which historically adapts well in adverse weather per league context notes.

Data reveals vulnerabilities: The biggest statistical mismatch is Seattle’s top-ranked scoring defense (17.2 PPG allowed) against New England’s high-powered offense (28.8 PPG, ranked second). However, Seattle also boasts the third-best scoring offense (28.4 PPG) against New England’s fourth-ranked defense (18.8 PPG allowed). On the ground, Seattle allows just 91.9 rushing yards per game (third-best), while New England runs for 128.9 YPG (sixth-best), a classic strength-on-strength scenario.

Bottom line: Despite the model showing a +4.8% edge for Patriots ATS based on regular season data, market movement and matchup specifics justify siding with Seattle -4.5 (-9.5% edge per model-to-market comparison). The under on 45.5 is supported by both weather analysis and total movement (-1 point from open). For props, Drake Maye has gone over his posted passing yardage line in 70% of games this year; with bookmakers setting his number well below average due to weather and last week’s poor showing, this sets up as an exploitable edge if conditions don’t deteriorate further but monitor pregame wind/rain updates closely before locking in overs on Maye or Darnold passing props.

Super Bowl LX Game Details and How to watch the Seahawks vs. Patriots live

• Seattle Seahawks (14-3) at New England Patriots (14-3),
• February 8th, 2026, 1:00 PM ET, Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA.
• Broadcast/Streaming on NBC
• Weather forecast: Cloudy with rain likely; temps between 41–63°F; winds SE at 9 mph with gusts up to 27 mph.

Game Odds for the Seahawks at Patriots

• The latest odds as of January 29th, courtesy of DraftKings
• Moneyline: Seahawks (-230), Patriots (+190)
• Spread: Seahawks -4.5 (-115)
• Total: 45.5
• This game opened with the Seahawks at -3.5, and the Game Total was set at 46.5.
• Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Quarterback Matchup for Seahawks at Patriots

Drake Maye (NE QB):

• Last Game: Jan 25 vs DEN: 86 yards passing, 0 TDs/0 INTs; completed just 47.6%.
• Season: 4394 passing yards | 31 TD | 8 INT | Comp %: 72 | Rushing: 450 yds/4 TD | Sacked: 47

Sam Darnold (SEA QB):

• Last Game: Jan 25 vs LA: Threw for 346 yards & three touchdowns with no interceptions; completed nearly 70%.
• Season: 4048 passing yards | 25 TD |14 INT | Comp %: ~68 | Rushing: 95 yds/0 TD | Sacked:27

Seahawks at Patriots team stats and betting trends

• Seahawks covered ATS in the regular season at a rate of 70.6% (12-5); Patriots covered 68.8% (11-5-1).
• Both teams finished with identical straight-up records (14-3), but Seattle had a higher average margin of victory (11.2 vs NE's 10).
• The under has hit more frequently late in season games involving both teams as defenses tightened.
• Head-to-head trends are neutral, given no recent postseason meetings.
• Both QBs have exceeded their posted prop lines in over 64% of games this year.

Seattle Seahawks Player Injuries (Only key players)

• Chazz Surratt (LB) OUT
• Zach Charbonnet (RB) IR
• Cody White (WR) IR
• Tory Horton (WR) IR

New England Patriots Player Injuries (Only key players)

• Eric Gregory (DT) IR
• Joshua Farmer (DT) QUESTIONABLE

Fantasy Alarm Best Bets

• Moneyline: Fantasy Alarm is recommending no play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: Fantasy Alarm is recommending a play ATS on the Seahawks -4.5.
• Total: Fantasy Alarm is recommending a play on the UNDER for the Game Total of 45.5.

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