Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks: NFC Championship Market Edge and Matthew Stafford Prop Edge

The Seattle Seahawks boast a 14-3 regular-season record, while the Los Angeles Rams finished at 12-5. Both teams were elite against the spread in the regular season, each covering 70.6% of the time (12-5-0 ATS). That’s a rare mirror image for an NFC Championship, with both sides showing a strong margin of victory: Seattle at +11.2 and LA at +10.1 per game. With both teams exceeding market expectations all year, something has to give in this playoff showdown.

The market opened with the Seahawks as slight -2.5 favorites and has remained consistent. The total has seen a minor move, dropping from an opener of 47.5 down to 46.5, a one-point swing downward driven by weather narratives and perceived defensive strength on both sides. Quarterback props are also in focus: Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 255.5, which is 21.4 yards below his regular-season average (276.9), while Sam Darnold’s line sits just under his mean (236.5 vs 238.1). Both QBs went over their posted yardage in 64% of regular-season games, suggesting the market may be overreacting to the total drop.

Injuries play a key role: Seattle enters with five high-impact injuries among key depth players, most notably RB Zach Charbonnet (IR), TE Elijah Arroyo (OUT), and two backup WRs on IR, potentially thinning their offensive options behind starters. The Rams have three key injuries: CB Ahkello Witherspoon (IR), LB Shaun Dolac (IR), and most critically, starting RT Rob Havenstein (IR). Despite these losses, the model gives Los Angeles a 59.3% implied chance to cover compared to the market’s 51.2%, revealing a 10.5% edge against the current spread for Seattle backers and strong value on LA +2.5.

Narrative factors loom large in this NFC title game: Seattle’s home-field advantage is real, especially with Lumen Field’s crowd noise and cool January conditions (forecast: mostly cloudy, low 40s Fahrenheit). However, weather analysis shows only a mild impact from light winds and no precipitation, so execution should not be hampered for either offense. Recent league context reminds us that last week’s Wild Card round saw several underdogs cover despite similar weather narratives; playoff variance remains high.

Data reveals vulnerabilities: The biggest statistical mismatch is LA’s top-ranked passing offense (268.1 YPG) against Seattle’s No. 10 pass defense (193.9 YPG allowed). On the flip side, Seattle’s run defense ranks third (91.9 YPG allowed), but LA still churns out 126.6 rushing yards per game (7th). The Rams’ offense leads the league at 30.5 points per game versus Seattle’s No. 1 scoring defense, allowing just 17.2 PPG, a true strength-on-strength clash.

Bottom line: The model shows a 10.5% edge on the Los Angeles Rams +2.5 compared to market probability; that is actionable value in a playoff setting where every edge matters and both teams have similar ATS profiles from the regular season. Lean toward OVER on Stafford’s passing yards if you must play a prop, but tread carefully on the game total itself, given playoff variance and public psychology around “cold-weather unders.” This matchup is tight by every metric, but the math says ride with LA plus the points.

NFC Championship Game Details and How to Watch the Rams vs Seahawks Live

• Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3),
• January 25, 2026, 1:00 PM ET, Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
• Broadcast/Streaming on FOX
• Weather forecast: Mostly cloudy, low 40s °F (32-44°F), wind ~5 mph with gusts up to 13 mph.

Game Odds for the Rams at Seahawks

The latest odds as of Jan 22, courtesy of DraftKings

• Moneyline: Rams (+130), Seahawks (-155)
• Spread: Seahawks -2.5 (-105)
• Total: 46.5
• This game opened with the Seahawks at -2.5, and the Game Total was set at 47.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Quarterback Matchup for Rams at Seahawks

Matthew Stafford (Rams QB):

• Last Game: Jan 18 vs CHI: 258 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs (20/42 completions; 47.6%)
• Season: 4707 passing yards | 46 TD | 8 INT | Comp %: 65 | Sacks: 23 | Avg: 276.9 YPG

Sam Darnold (Seahawks QB):

• Last Game: Jan 17 vs SF: 124 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (12/17 completions; 70.6%)
• Season: 4048 passing yards | 25 TD |14 INT | Comp %: 68 | Sacks:27 | Avg:238 YPG

Rams at Seahawks Team Stats and Betting Trends

• Both teams covered ATS in the REG season at an elite rate, 70.6% each (12-5-0).
• Over/Under splits lean slightly UNDER for both teams, given defensive ranks and weather.
• Head-to-head features LA’s #1 scoring offense (30.5 PPG) vs SEA’s #1 scoring defense (17.2 PPG allowed).
• Matthew Stafford went OVER his posted passing yardage prop in REG season games at a rate of ~64%.
• Both teams averaged a double-digit margin of victory in the REG season, SEA +11.2 PPG differential; LA +10.1.

Los Angeles Rams Player Injuries (Only key players)

• Ahkello Witherspoon (CB) IR
• Shaun Dolac (LB) IR
• Rob Havenstein (RT) IR

Seattle Seahawks Player Injuries (Only key players)

• Chazz Surratt (LB) OUT
• Zach Charbonnet (RB) IR
• Elijah Arroyo (TE) OUT
• Cody White (WR) IR
• Tory Horton (WR) IR

Fantasy Alarm Best Bets

• Moneyline: Fantasy Alarm Bet is recommending no play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: Fantasy Alarm Bet is recommending a play ATS on the Los Angeles Rams +2.5.
• Total: Fantasy Alarm Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER for the Game Total of 46.5.

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