There are a lot of inter-conference games on the slate this week between teams that rarely play each other. This isn’t one of those. This is a division rivalry that was once dominated by Tom Brady and the New England Patriots but is now firmly under the control of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. And it’s our Sunday Night Football game this week.

The Bills are hoping to keep their undefeated season going. Given the way the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs beat each other up when they meet, securing that bye week is crucial. The 2-2 Patriots hope to spoil that streak and put a feather in their cap with a big division win this week. There’s some hope in the building all of a sudden with Drake Maye and a solid defense. Let’s take a look at the narratives, the data, and the injuries to see if there’s a play to be made here. 

Even if you just want to see the Patriots vs. Bills odds and have Patriots vs. Bills picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus! 

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Bills Predictions For NFL Week 5, Sunday Night Football 8:20 PM ET

Given that these are division rivals, they obviously play fairly often. Twice a year, in fact, unless they meet in the playoffs for a third time. The Patriots actually won the most recent meeting between the two teams, though it doesn’t quite count as both teams rested their starters and Joe Milton led the Patriots to a win. As we mentioned, the Patriots were dominant during the Tom Brady era, but lately the Bills have gotten the best of them winning six of the last seven meaningful games. 

The Patriots are now 2-2 on the year. The two opponents they beat were fairly low end in the Panthers and Dolphins while they lost to the Raiders and Steelers. The Bills on the other hand, are undefeated, having beaten the Ravens, Jets, Dolphins, and Saints. 

New England Patriots: Battling Turnover Issues

The Patriots have a lot of promise on offense with a young quarterback in Drake Maye and some new rookies like TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Williams. Though they have been hesitant to unleash them, relying on veterans like Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, and Rhamondre Stevenson. That’s come despite some turnover issues for the Patriots so far - specifically, from Rhamondre Stevenson.

On defense, the Patriots have been solid, especially up front. They’ve invested a ton in guys like Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, and Harold Landry, so that’s what you’d hope. They struggled early on vs. the pass without Christian Gonzalez but, not that he is back, they’re a more cohesive unit. 

Buffalo Bills: Leaning On The Run Game 

I think most coaches would be happy running the ball all game and going undefeated. So Bills coaches are probably pretty happy. They obviously had to throw a lot more in the Ravens game, which went to a shootout. But they’ve done a great job running with Josh Allen and James Cook to the point that they actually lead the league in rushing yards per game - by almost 10 yards. In fact, Buffalo is at 163.5 yards per game and the third place team, the New York Jets, are almost 20 behind at 144.5.

The Bills defense is good on paper but, in practice, they haven’t been fantastic. Specifically, they have struggled against the run where they are currently graded as the third-worst team per DVOA over at FTN Fantasy. Injuries to guys like Matt Milano and Ed Oliver are at least partially to blame, but Buffalo is hoping to have them back this week. 

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

As promised, the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

 

Patriots vs. Bills: Keon Coleman Under 37.5 Yards (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Once upon a time, the Bills would live and die with Stefon Diggs. He was a locked-in 150+ target guy and the obvious focal point of the team. When he was on they would dominate but, when he didn’t show up, they’d fall flat. The Bills decided to get away from that approach in recent years with a more spread out distribution - both in terms of snaps and targets. There is no clear focal point in the pass game. 

The idea of betting on a “Stefon Diggs revenge game” is fun but we’d rather take advantage of this new Bills approach. Essentially, what they’ve been doing is taking the path of least resistance. If they can run it, they run. If a team is weak against tight ends, they use their three tight ends, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes. And, if a team has an elite corner, they don’t play into that corner.

The Patriots have an elite corner in Christian Gonzalez. And Keon Coleman has had a hard time as is creating separation. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, his averaged separation score of 0.039 ranks 99th among wide receivers. His target separation vs. man coverage of 0.64 per PlayerProfiler ranks him 81st. When the Bills played an elite corner in Sauce Gardner in Week 2, they opted not to even have the big split end Coleman on the field for a good chunk of snaps - his snap share was only 51%. The Bills have so many weapons it doesn’t really make sense for them to force it to Coleman with a tough assignment. He only has three catches each in his last three games anyway so we’re going under here for him. 

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Bills Injury Report & Latest News

Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:

New England Patriots

 

Buffalo Bills

 

 

 

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