Table of Contents
  1. Teams With A Reason To Win in NFL Week 18
  2. Playing To Win With No Incentive in NFL Week 18
  3. Dicey Situations
  4. Nightmare Situations
  5. NFL Week 18 Contract Incentives and Milestones

I’m going to be real with you - Week 18 is a nightmare for fantasy football. It truly is. So we’re also going to do our very best here to help keep the speculation to a minimum and tell you what we care about or not. This goes for your sports betting, your DFS, or your actual leagues (if you are crazy enough to still have them).

We’re going to look at some basic monetary incentives. We’re going to look at which teams are actually playing to win or not. And I’m going to give my quick thoughts on how much it matters. Sound good? Already, let’s jump in.

 

 

 

Teams With A Reason To Win in NFL Week 18

These are the teams that actually have something important to play for here, so we expect them to play hard. They may pull their starters, but only likely when they have a comfortable lead, like any team. The New England Patriots did that very early last week, but you were happy with the results. So these teams, we are willing to use the players from. We’ll go in alphabetical order in each section.

 

 


 

Playing To Win With No Incentive in NFL Week 18

The following teams we expect to continue to play to win. Teams really don’t go out there and just half-ass it, so unless they are actively benching starters or putting guys on IR, we expect them to play the game the way it’s supposed to be played.

 


 

Dicey Situations

These are the games that worry us a little bit, for one reason or another. These teams are the ones that carry the most risk of benching their starters mid-game based on the outcomes of other games, even if they don’t have a big lead. 

  • Arizona Cardinals - There is kind of an unwritten rule that, if one team pulls the starters, the other team often does too. See below for Rams.
  • Buffalo Bills - If Houston and Jacksonville win at 1, then Denver takes an early lead at 4, they could start pulling guys. Josh Allen notably has a foot issue. 
  • Los Angeles Rams - If the Seahawks win on Saturday, they are locked into the 5 seed. McVay says they still need to work on some things, but he’s also pulled/rested guys in the past.
  • New York Jets - Similar situation to the Cardinals. If the Bills pull starters mid-game, the Jets might too. 
     
 


 

Nightmare Situations

 


 

NFL Week 18 Contract Incentives and Milestones

These are items that we care about for fantasy football and prop bets - but to varying degrees. Some of them may already be baked into the prop bets. Some are easy to obtain or fairly difficult. And the teams also can pay the bonuses even if the player doesn’t hit them at their own discretion (for instance, if it’s a must-win game, maybe they don’t want the quarterback worrying about their completion percentage). So keep that in mind. 

Baker Mayfield: $500K each for finishing top 10 in NFL or top 5 in NFC in yards and TDs

  • He’s very close to these incentives, and we’ve seen them force the milestone to Mike Evans last year. But this game is too important to be worrying about stats, so I don’t expect it to have any impact on playcalling or performance. 

Dawson Knox: $100K with 6 receptions, $100K with 1 TD

  • Dalton Kincaid has been hobbled, and I could see them resting him here. Knox is a sneaky DFS play, but as we mentioned, they could rest guys by the second half.

Deebo Samuel: $450K with 94 yards, $250K with 2 TDs

  • The 93-yard incentive is interesting, as that’s something they can potentially brute force their way to if they choose. We aren’t betting on Deebo 2X TD props. 

Hunter Henry: $250K with 5 receptions

  • The matchup is good, the number is obtainable, and the quarterback is vying for MVP. This one we like leaning on. 

Khalil Shakir: $150K with 1 TD and 8 receptions

  • The Bills are more likely to rest starters early than they are to push the envelope on getting their slot WR 8 catches. 

Keenan Allen: $750K with 6 catches

  • If Justin Herbert were playing, it would be a bit easier to lean into this one. But I also think it’s fairly reasonable to hit so for fantasy, it helps his floor. And it’s a pretty big number.

Jauan Jennings: $666K bonus with 7 receptions

  • In an important game like this, I don’t think anyone is going to be forcing anything. But Jennings is a good bet in fantasy regardless, given his usage and the situation. 

Justin Jefferson: 53 receiving yards for 1,000

  • I actually do believe this is important to Jefferson. And, in a meaningless game, I think they do their best to get him there. It would be his sixth straight season with 1K. 

Nick Chub: $250K with 94 yards rushing

  • If Nick Chubb was capable of running for 94 yards, He probably wouldn’t have maxed out at 61 on the season. He had one yard last week. This one feels like a stretch in an important game.

Rico Dowdle: $1M bonus with 7 yards

  • It’s only 7 yards, so it does not affect how we view this player

Sam Darnold: $500K incentives each for passing yards (150), touchdowns (3), and slight increases to completion percentage and passer rating

  • In such an important game, I wouldn’t want my quarterback worrying about how taking a couple of risks on throws could affect his pockets. I don’t expect Darnold to play any differently based on the numbers. 

Saquon Barkley: $250K with 87 all-purpose yards

  • They don’t care enough to start Jalen Hurts. And Barkley didn’t care about chasing an all-time record last year. So I don’t necessarily expect them to push this one.

Stefon Diggs: $500K with 30 yards, another $500K with 130 yards, $500K with 8 catches

  • Stefon Diggs is also dealing with some allegations that he’s adamant are false. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him channel all of this into a big game, in true diva WR fashion. 

Sterling Shepard: $125K with one reception, $125K with 29 receiving yards

  • Again, in a must-win game, they aren’t going to get cute. And, if it does get to the point where it’s a blowout win and they put Shepard in late to get a catch or a few extra yards, how good is that game for him really going to be anyway?

Tony Pollard: $250K with 66 rush yards, $250K with 2 TDs

  • The TDs are not something we’d bet on. But Pollard has been decent lately, and you can run on the Bengals, which makes Pollard a decent option in fantasy. 

 

Â