The Divisional Round of the 2023 NFL playoffs is here and we are another week closer to Super Bowl 58, the biggest betting event in the sports arena. But before you start looking at that same game parlay involving player props and halftime commercials, we need to keep building that bankroll in advance of the big game. Betting these Divisional Round games can be tricky, especially with such big point spreads in comparison to what we saw last week. People want to know the latest betting trends – things like: since 2000, underdogs are 47-42-3 ATS (52.9%) and 30-62 straight-up in the Divisional Round with the over hitting in just 46 of those 92 games (one push) – so let’s dive in and take a look at my favorite game bets and player props for this weekend. 



NFL Divisional Round Best Bets & Player Props

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

  • Spread: Ravens -9.5
  • Total: 43.5

I just don’t see the Ravens losing this game and their -450 moneyline speaks volumes. The question is whether or not I think the Texans can keep this game close enough to cover the spread. Historically, underdogs by more than nine points cover the spread just over 50-percent of the time, so there’s not much data to sway an opinion. So I look at the progress we’ve seen from C.J. Stroud and can’t help but focus on two thing. The first is no Marlon Humphrey. Do the Ravens play more zone than man now? Their best remaining cover guy is Kyle Hamilton but he’s much better on the slot than the outside, so Nico Collins and John Metchie could be in for stronger days. The second thing is how often the Ravens have struggled to maintain their leads in the second half. We’ve seen them lose late and we've see plenty of teams cover on them with strong second half performances. Maybe not strong enough for the win, but certainly strong enough to keep it close. And that’s where this game sits for me.

Game Pick: Texans +9.5 (-110)

Favorite Prop Bet: Nico Collins over 77.5 receiving yards (-115)

I also like: Robert Woods over 22.5 receiving yards (-115)

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

  • Spread: 49ers -9.5
  • Total: 50.5

If you look at that stat up above in the intro and you read what I wrote about underdogs by more than nine points, then it’s pretty easy to surmise that if I think the Texans are the ones to cover the spread, the Packers are not. Listen – I love what the Packers have done. I’m happy for Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love here in their post-Aaron Rodgers Era, but I have a very tough time seeing them best the 49ers in this game or, for that matter, keep it close enough to cover. Yes, there is a weakness in this 49ers defense where we’ve seen faster receivers get behind the corners for big plays, but how many times will it actually happen against this 49ers defense? Enough to counter the massive amount of points the 49ers will put up on the Green Bay defense? Probably not. Between Christian McCaffrey and the elite receiving weapons at Brock Purdy’s disposal, San Francisco is going to put up some serious points. 

Game Pick: 49ers -9.5 (-110)

I also like: over 50.5 (-110)

Favorite Prop Bet: Jordan Love over 251.5 passing yards (-115)



Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

  • Spread: Lions -6.5
  • Total: 49

This game is going to come down to a few key things. First (and second), the Lions pass-rush should be able to get to Baker Mayfield and their run defense needs to stifle Rachaad White early. If those two things happen, it’s going to be a long day for the Bucs. They need that to happen in order to open up play-action. Otherwise, the Lions secondary can sit on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and use extra defensive backs, if needed. The next is the Lions jumping out to an early lead. We all know David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs make for a strong tandem but the Bucs run defense is definitely solid. That means Jared Goff is going to have to find his weapons downfield. The Tampa secondary is their biggest weakness and with the way everything funnels to the middle, guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta thrive. If that happens as well, the Lions can then just chew up the clock in the second half with the running game. Do all those things happen? I think they do.

Game Pick: Lions -6.5 (-110)

I also like: under 49 (-110)

Favorite Prop Bet: Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+125)

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

  • Spread: Bills -2.5
  • Total: 45.5

This, to me, is the featured presentation as two AFC heavyweights trade hatmakers with each other for the seventh time in the last four seasons. We can look at the Bills winning the last three, but we can also look at the road team winning each time over the last four. I think people are putting too much stock into this being Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game. Sure, the Bills fans can be loud, but the weather is all comparable and it doesn’t even appear to be a factor, based on forecasts. I think Mahomes and the Chiefs take advantage of all these injuries on the Bills defense. Their linebackers and secondary are all sorts of banged-up and while Rasul Douglas is expected to return, I don’t think it will be enough. Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce will be featured, but the Chiefs other pass-catchers are going to be running around out there like little mice and that’s going to make it tough for the Bills. Offensively, they’re great and I expect Josh Allen and James Cook to have strong games. But I think this one stays close throughout and, in the end, the Chiefs move on. 

Game Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (+100)

I also like: Chiefs ML (+120)

Favorite Prop Bet: Travis Kelce over 5.5 receptions (-145)

**all lines & odds courtesy of BetMGM