FFPC Playoff Challenge: Team by Team Breakdown and Example Lineup

lThe 2022 NFL regular season and fantasy football season may have come to an end, but the 2022 NFL playoffs are here and the excitement level is off-the charts. Not only are we looking at  what should be an amazing five-week run to Super Bowl 57, but we also now have an opportunity to walk away with up to a $500,000 grand prize. Earlier this week, we examined some of the strategies involved with the FFPC Playoff Challenge, a “set-and-forget” playoff fantasy football contest where you select 12 players to form a roster that will be in play from this weekend’s Super Wild Card Weekend up until the clock hits 0:00 on Super Bowl Sunday.

If you’re interested in joining the contest, you’ll need to do it soon, as both the $35 and $200 contests will both sell out. 

Not yet signed up for the FFPC Playoff Challenge? Don't wait! Sign up here!

Today, we’ll dive deeper into this contest with team-specific breakdowns, strategies, and an example lineup I’ll be using in the contest.

The FFPC Playoff Challenge Format and Scoring Recap

The scoring is the typical FFPC standard rules, which mean the following:

• TE (Tight end) premium scoring (1.5 points per reception)
• Full PPR scoring
• 4 point passing touchdowns
• 1 point per 20 passing yards
• 3 points per field goal plus 0.1 points for every yard thereafter
• Players in the Super Bowl will receive DOUBLE points.

Your 12-player lineup will include the following:

• (1) Quarterback
• (2) Running Back
• (2) Wide Receiver
• (1) Tight End
• (4) FLEX players (RB/WR/TE)
• (1) Kicker
• (1) Defense/Special Teams

Two teams will be completely faded or “full fade” as I’ll reference throughout the article, while two teams will be a “soft fade”, which means we’re using them as the kicker and defense.

NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl Odds 

(via fivethirtyeight.com)

Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM CT, January 11th, 2023

It’s very important to know where the majority of the field will make their picks to be able to take that information and tailor your picks to that. Taking the optimal play from each playoff team and jamming them into your lineup could result in winning something from the contest, but will likely be among the most duplicated lineups in the field, without a way of separating yourself from the rest of the contestants.

FFPC Playoff Challenge Team-by-Team Breakdowns

AFC

1 Seed - Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs will play a maximum of three games in the playoffs as they’re the top seed and won’t play their first game until the Divisional Round. Obviously, that’s no reason to count out any of their options, as they’re the odds-on favorite to come out of the AFC.

The Chalk Play

Travis Kelce will be among the highest-rostered plays across the entire field, and why shouldn’t he? As the regular season TE1, he scored over 100 PPR points more than the TE2. He will likely be some of the chalk you need to advance as he’s the Chiefs’ best receiver. It’s hard to imagine any other tight end coming close to the output Kelce will provide. He almost doubled the TE2 in last season's Playoff Challenge (C.J. Uzomah) in one less game.

The Pivot

If you’re making a pivot off of Kelce, it would have to be one player, and that’s the likely league MVP Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the rare quarterback where you don’t even necessarily NEED him on a roster if you think the Chiefs make a Super Bowl run but would provide huge leverage on people rostering Kelce. 

The Contrarian Play

I’ve been thinking about a possible pivot to a Jerick McKinnon for huge leverage in a scenario where they get upset, but it’s not likely. The only way contrarian plays get there for the Chiefs is if McKinnon goes off in a spike week scenario vs. a multiple-game scenario where betting on the Chiefs’ top options to falter is incredibly unlikely. Other players like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Isiah Pacheco are galaxy-brain options but not really worth considering here.

Predicted Ownership

2 Seed - Buffalo Bills

The Chalk Play

The chalk condenses to two options: Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Allen will likely be the top-rostered quarterback in the Playoff Challenge. Allen has everything going for him with passing upside, rushing upside, likely multiple games played, elite weapons, and a potential neutral-site AFC Championship game. The Bills have the second-best odds in the AFC to advance to the Super Bowl, and Allen should spearhead all of that. Still, he’s likely only seeing the second-highest ownership on his own team, as Diggs is likely to show up on close to, if not over 50% of rosters. The Bills’ offensive output to close out the season may drop a little bit of his exposure, but not too much, as when the Bills’ offense is firing on all cylinders, it’s through Diggs. 

The Pivot

If you’re not playing Allen, you’re likely playing Diggs. If you’re not playing Diggs, you’re likely playing Allen. That’s the only realistic pivot for me on Buffalo.

The Contrarian Play

The only real contrarian plays on the Bills are in the running game, and in neutral game-script scenarios, we’ve been used to Devin Singletary carrying the mantle as he was the third-best running back in this contest last season and carrying about 21% of ownership. That won't happen this season as James Cook has worked his way into the equation and both will siphon ownership from each other, making them purely contrarian plays and not realistic ones at that. Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox feel like getting way too cute with rock-bottom points floors despite Davis’ amazing postseason run last season.

Predicted Ownership

3 Seed - Cincinnati Bengals

The Chalk Play

Despite so much target and personnel concentration in the Bengals’ offense, the safest and most satisfying click to make for Cincinnati has to be Ja’Marr Chase. Heavily targeted in a pass-heavy offense, he has double-digit targets in his last four full games touchdowns in three of those four. He’ll easily be the most popular way to play the Bengals in this Playoff Challenge.

The Pivot

If you’re looking to play the Bengals’ offense without the high product ownership, Tee Higgins is the logical pivot. Higgins has arguably the same type of spike week potential but the floor is a bit lower, with just two double-digit target games to his credit in 2022. Still, in this offense, with the amount of attention Chase receives, Joe Burrow looks to Higgins quite a bit. In fact, in last year’s contest, Higgins was the second-highest non-quarterback scorer of anybody not named Cooper Kupp, just edging out Chase. Higgins was only 8-9% rostered last season, but that figure looks to come up as people try to find an edge over the Chase chalk.

The Contrarian Play

Considering his playoff pedigree leading the Bengals to a Super Bowl and his stellar play this season as fantasy football’s QB4, Burrow seems pretty wild to me as a contrarian play. His ownership should come in fourth among quarterbacks after Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes, which makes him pretty contrarian in this challenge. With the Bengals being so pass-heavy all season with the second-highest pass rate over expected (8% in Weeks 1-17), that’s why you’re using him over the higher-owned options. Burrow is used at the goal line, which boosts his floor too. He’s the sneakiest of quarterback options but could be one of the keys to the tournament, especially if the Bengals make another Super Bowl appearance.

Besides Higgins, Joe Mixon is a logical way to get a Bengal into your lineup if you want to differentiate from the field. However, he’d likely be the optimal Bengal only if they were upset by the Ravens on Wild Card weekend.

Predicted Ownership

4 Seed - Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chalk Play

We’re starting to get into teams that should have more spread-out ownership, but most will likely play the Jaguars as a one-and-done team or at most, playing two games. Travis Etienne seems like the best way to play the Jaguars in that scenario. I’m a bit concerned as the team loves to get JaMycal Hasty involved as of late in the run game, but Etienne is the main cog here. His receiving upside in a full-PPR scenario is worrisome with only three games of more than three targets and none of them coming after Week 7. Still, a matchup with the Chargers, who are bottom-four in defensive rush DVOA, should be a nice points opportunity for Etienne. The public will skew towards Etienne against the rest of the options.

The Pivot

The pivots here look more attractive in a full-PPR format like this, where receivers are typically your flex players rather than running backs. The only issue is which one goes off in one or two games? You could make a case for Christian Kirk, Evan Engram with the tight end premium scoring, or even Zay Jones. It’s much easier to miss here than with any of the teams ahead of them in the AFC, so my pivot would be the kicker, Riley Patterson as a soft fade on the entire skill-position group.

The Contrarian Play

Jones and Engram would be the contrarian ways to play it, with Engram being particularly popular for teams that roster Mahomes who pivot off of Kelce. Jones is a marginal contrarian play where he’s going to be very low-rostered but has the upside to be the optimal Jaguar.

Predicted Ownership

5 Seed - Los Angeles Chargers

The Chalk Play

The public jamming in the best plays for fantasy this season will lead to high ownership for Austin Ekeler. The Chargers/Jaguars game has the second-highest over/under of the Wild Card slate at 47.5 points, so playing a player from each of those teams and guaranteeing one advances seems like the optimal way to play it. It’s hard to see fantasy’s RB1 and not jam him into a lineup. It also helps that the rest of the sentiment behind the Chargers’ options outside of maybe Keenan Allen is either injured or not instilling much confidence right now. 

The Pivot

Allen is my pivot and he’s the “chalk” pivot here if you’re looking to gain leverage on the Ekeler teams. In a one-game scenario, Allen should be able to put up similar PPR points to Ekeler and always has a good chance to surpass him on pure volume. That’s the play you’re making by putting Allen in your lineup. If you’re predicting that the Chargers play more than one game, then Ekeler would be the Charger to roster.

The Contrarian Play

We mentioned that the other weapons for the Chargers are either injured, which includes Mike Williams, and not instilling much confidence, which points at Justin Herbert. I want no part of Williams and his back injuries despite the upside he has when he’s on the field. When you’re comparing quarterbacks in this contest, Herbert doesn’t seem like a realistic option. It’s a two-man race here if you’re putting a Charger in your lineup between Ekeler and Allen.

Predicted Ownership

6 Seed - Baltimore Ravens

The Chalk Play

To consider even Mark Andrews at tight end, we would need Lamar Jackson to practice and so far, he hasn’t yet. Even then, the Ravens’ offense has been #notgood. That is why the Ravens are likely to be one of the most-faded options among the playoff teams. Who can you trust? If you select any player, it might just be the kicker, Justin Tucker. Smart money would be to completely fade them all together. I still can’t fully get behind playing the defense either but their work is made a little bit easier with Bengals’ offensive lineman Alex Cappa likely out. Cappa joins La’El Collins on the sideline as he’s out for the season with a knee injury.  

The Pivot

Starting Andrews is so risky in a player pool where Travis Kelce exists. Baltimore is already a 6.0-point underdog, and with the third-lowest implied point total of the Wild Card teams, you’re playing with fire asking Andrews — even in tight-end premium scoring — to put up a usable score in a likely one-game output. Couple that with a good chance Jackson isn’t under center for the Ravens, and I’m looking at Tucker if I was going to play a soul suiting up for Baltimore.

The Contrarian Play

J.K. Dobbins is in a split backfield but with so many better running backs without workload concerns, he’s highly volatile in this contest.

Predicted Ownership

7 Seed - Miami Dolphins

The Chalk Play

With the Dolphins ruling out Tua Tagovailoa on Wednesday, it’s really putting a damper on any of the weapons for the Dolphins in what’s likely a one-and-done scenario. Skylar Thompson is the likely quarterback for the Dolphins in Buffalo and against the Bills, where they’re 13-point underdogs and only have an implied point total of 17. Yikes.

Miami is definitely a full-fade candidate, and that seems like the popular sentiment here despite a roster that has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who were both fantasy studs throughout the regular season. Playing Hill — the likely highest-owned skill-position player —  means you need a 20+ point game out of him in his one game. Even then, it’s just better to fade.

The Pivot

Pivoting off of a full fade is soft-fading the Dolphins with Jason Sanders, the Miami D/ST, or playing Hill. The juice from those soft-fade options doesn’t seem worth the squeeze.

The Contrarian Play

The REAL contrarian play would be Waddle, who should come in a sub-5% ownership and has as good of a chance of hitting a monster outcome as Hill does. It’s a really specific scenario you’re pigeon-holing when playing Waddle, and it’s incredibly risky.

Predicted Ownership

NFC

1 Seed - Philadelphia Eagles

The Chalk Play

The strength of the Eagles’ offense will carry most of the ownership here between A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts. Brown will be higher-rostered as the big play option that can also earn target volume. The public perception of Hurts might be a little lower than it should be because he’s been injured, but that’s something that could climb as we get closer to the end of the week. We’re only getting a maximum of three games from this top seed in the NFC, but they have a very favorable path if they get the winner of the Vikings/Giants and avoid one of the Cowboys/49ers until the NFC Championship.

The Pivot

The Eagles are pretty condensed with their target tree with their big three weapons, including Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, which makes Smith and Goedert perfectly viable options. Smith is probably my favorite pivot of the entire tournament as he has just as much of a chance of pacing the Eagles’ pass-catching group in fantasy points as anybody, with what’s projected to be a sliver of the ownership.

The Contrarian Play

Goedert is a fine play in his own right, but even as a contrarian play, Miles Sanders just seems gross. We know the Eagles love to use multiple running backs plus with Hurts back, the touchdown equity is at a minimum here. That’s what we’d be looking for with Sanders, so it’s very difficult to even suggest Sanders here in what would likely be multiple games played by the Eagles.

Predicted Ownership

2 Seed - San Francisco 49ers

The Chalk Play

Nothing gets the heart pumping and the fist-pump muscles more limber than clicking in “not injured until he is” Christian McCaffrey into your Playoff Challenge lineup. CMC is going to carry the vast majority of ownership on the 49ers side as they’re a strong candidate to play three games per the playoff and Super Bowl odds. A potential thorn in the side of McCaffrey is the return of Elijah Mitchell to siphon off some of his work, but we know the upside of McCaffrey and that will still hold true in this contest.

The Pivot

For the spike week potential and tight end premium scoring, George Kittle has to be in play, right? It’s going to be hard to find a non-Kelce tight end to put in your lineup and especially difficult to put them in at flex over a wide receiver or even running backs, but Kittle has been the top-scoring target for quarterback Brock Purdy over the last month or so. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are also available too, but here’s the rub with the pass-catchers: in a low-volume passing attack, they need to be hyper-efficient to get there, and we have to be correct in our prediction for it to pay off. CMC allows some wiggle room to not totally get it right but still be able to hit other pieces to compete. THAT is why McCaffrey is some of the best chalk in the challenge.

The Contrarian Play

Hear me out here, but Purdy? We’re talking about a team that’s a favorite to play at least three games, a huge leverage play over CMC, Kittle, and the rest of the pass-catchers, and he’s been pretty solid since assuming the starting gig for San Francisco. He’s going to need to play four games and get closer to the 30 fantasy points per game level if he’s going to be “the guy you need” in this challenge, but at super low ownership, he might be one of the more important players here.

Predicted Ownership

3 Seed - Minnesota Vikings

The Chalk Play

Justin Jefferson is number one with a bullet. He’s likely going to be the most rostered player in this entire Playoff Challenge and deservedly so. He’s played in all scenarios and could get up to the 91% ownership that Cooper Kupp had in last season’s contest, though it's not likely. with some other playable options for the Vikings.

The Pivot

With so much ownership heading the way of Jefferson, I really, really like T.J. Hockenson as a pivot here. Hockenson can break the slate himself with how condensed the Vikings are from a personnel perspective, which allows multiple massive volume games from not just Jefferson, but Hockenson as well. He’s clearly taken over the second receiver role from Adam Thielen and with the tight end premium scoring, Hockenson is an incredibly worthwhile pivot. Plus, if you’re playing the Vikings to lose, Hockenson put up 42.4 fantasy points in FFPC scoring against the same Giants opponent he faced in Week 16. For reference, TE2 in last year’s contest (The Bengals' C.J. Uzomah) put up 47.2 fantasy points in FOUR games.

The Contrarian Play

The contrarian play here would probably be Dalvin Cook, but he hasn’t been the same Cook of previous seasons, and his ownership could dip a little more than the 8-12% I have him at for this year’s contest. That shows how strong of a play Jefferson is as well as how public perception has waned on Cook heading into playoff contests.

Predicted Ownership

4 Seed - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Chalk Play

With the Buccaneers, we’ve got some spread-out ownership, but it’s edged toward the wide receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin has been carrying the consistent target volume for the Bucs, while Evans had that huge Week 17 where he scored three times on multiple deep balls. If Evans didn’t blow up, the ownership could have condensed on Godwin a little bit more. There are numerous ways to play the Buccaneers, which shows that these aren’t the same Bucs from past seasons. 

The Pivot

Seeing Tampa Bay as a soft fade whether playing their defense or Ryan Succop is attractive with some lingering uncertainty about their skill-position weapons. Soft-fading the Buccaneers assumes they’ll be losing to the Cowboys but scoring points with Succop or holding Dak Prescott somewhat in check. I see the merits of those plays to get other teams’ studs in your lineup vs. depending on the efficiency of the Buccaneers’ offense, which hasn’t been at all consistent this season.

The Contrarian Play

Never underestimate the field latching on to Tom Brady, but if we’re seeing anything more than a 2% ownership of Brady, that’s likely a great thing for the field. There’s also Leonard Fournette who the consensus could latch onto as he’s distanced himself from Rachaad White to close out 2022. Neither are truly serious plays other than the most contrarian of lineups, but I can at least understand trying to catch lightning in a bottle yet again.

Predicted Ownership

5 Seed - Dallas Cowboys

The Chalk Play

The chalk here for the Cowboys starts with CeeDee Lamb, who feels like the most comfortable click here with at least 16 PPR points in six of his last seven games.

The Pivot

If you’re not going to play Lamb, the soft fade route by playing their defense against the Buccaneers is a solid option. If you prefer to play through the skill-position players, rostership is spread pretty evenly through their secondary options like Dalton Schultz, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott and others. With Dallas’ running back options, I’d prefer to play them in other formats where you set weekly lineups vs. one-and-done formats like FFPC. So while Tony Pollard was such a great fantasy option in seasonal, redraft formats, he’s not going to carry a ton of ownership in these contests relative to perception.

The Contrarian Play

Dak Prescott will go overlooked in this contest based on the strength of the quarterback position, but why can’t he play four games en route to a Dallas Super Bowl berth? He will have to pump up the efficiency to do so, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility and would be huge leverage against the field if Prescott was the guy you needed to win the contest.

Predicted Ownership

6 Seed - New York Giants

The Chalk Play

I liken the Giants to the Jaguars here as they have a running back in Saquon Barkley who could be gold in a losing one-game scenario that puts up 20+ points. Barkley is going to carry MUCH more ownership than Travis Etienne, though by virtue of the Giants having a weaker selection of players outside of Barkley. He’s going to be very chalky as a likely one-game option.

The Pivot

If I’m not playing Barkley, I’m likely fading the entire team. There’s nobody else I really feel comfortable putting into my lineup for a spike week game in a loss other than Barkley. While it could potentially be Richie James, Darius Slayton, or Isaiah Hodgins putting up a big game, is that something you can click into your lineup and feel good about?

The Contrarian Play

There’s really one contrarian Giants option I feel even okay about, and that’s the Giants D/ST against the Vikings. Kirk Cousins national television game, anyone?

Predicted Ownership

7 Seed - Seattle Seahawks

The Chalk Play

The chalk here for the Seahawks is to outright fade them completely. Having to play in Levi’s Stadium against a stout 49ers defense doesn’t exactly bode well for the prospects of playing Kenneth Walker, though both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will catch a smattering of ownership across the contests. The Seahawks are 9.5-point underdogs against the 49ers and have the second-lowest implied point total, so it’s an uphill climb.

The Pivot

Playing the Seahawks in a one-and-done scenario and hoping to capture a huge game from one of Metcalf or Lockett is a logical pivot. Lockett as the target earner and Metcalf as the big play receiver certainly let you prioritize safety vs. upside between the two, but at the very least, Lockett played a full routes share in Week 18, so the injury concerns with him are now pretty minimal.

The Contrarian PlaySoft fading the Seahawks is still pretty contrarian, but if I was going to do that, it would be on the bet that even if the Seahawks lose, Brock Purdy looks more like the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft against the solid, capable game manager he’s been since his insertion into the starting lineup. The Seattle D/ST will be a pretty low-rostered option that could play some dividends and I don’t hate that play one bit.

Predicted Ownership

FFPC Challenge Example Lineup

With this lineup, I’m getting unique on quarterback against the field of Allen, Mahomes, and Hurts but with a strong quarterback that has a good shot of getting to at least three games if not four. Using Burrow allows me to use chalky options like Jefferson, Diggs and both running backs. My soft fades are Jacksonville and NY Giants, who I’m predicting lose, so I can keep my skill-position players intact for the Divisional Round. Being able to maximize the collective number of games your team plays is one of the key components of this contest.

While the lineup does look chalky, you do need SOME chalk. It’s much different with DFS as there’s a smaller player pool and you’re playing a more predictive game through up to four games rather than a one-game sample size where any random player can go off at any given time.

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