As you head into what for many of you will be the first round of your league’s fantasy playoffs you have to eliminate as much doubt from your fantasy lineup as possible. As we’ve discussed throughout the season there are many NFL backfields that can’t be trusted when it comes to fantasy, but sometimes circumstances will force a team to be a bit more predictable in the way they distribute carries amongst their RBs.
For instance, last week we wrote about the Rams’ backfield and how erratic Sean McVay can be when it comes to using his RBs. Cam Akers has now had two straight productive weeks and depending on how serious Darrell Henderson’s knee injury is, McVay may not have a choice but to lean on Akers again this week.
Now, more than ever, you need to be glued to NFL news as injuries and COVID related pauses and delays can wreak havoc to your starting lineup. Christian McCaffrey is expected to make his return this week, but the Panthers had to place eight players on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Monday. The NFL has done a good job with juggling the schedule in order to deal with the COVID related outbreaks that have plagued the league of late but it’s still a situation that you need to monitor.
Fantasy Alarm will keep you up to date on all the latest breaking fantasy football related news as it happens. In the meantime, the following analysis provides a closer look at a few of the NFL backfields that deserve your attention. We hope that it helps you better manage your fantasy football team(s). Good luck this week!
Atlanta Falcons
It seems that the Falcons may have squeezed as much top line fantasy production as they could out of Todd Gurley this season. He averaged just under 18 carries per game in his first nine games of the season and although his 3.67 YPC average isn’t very impressive, his nine TDs in those games certainly are. Gurley’s knee has been acting up of late and in his last two games he’s averaged just 8 carries per game and 2.63 YPC. While Gurley’s knee has been barking, he was able to play in Week 13 and when Gurley plays and is limited, the Falcons backfield turns into an ugly unusable three headed monster. All season long we were valuing Brian Hill as Gurley’s handcuff based on former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn telling the media that Hill had earned the role. Quinn is gone and Ito Smith has been effective and grabbing a larger role in the Falcons offense of late. He’s averaging 5.05 YPC in his last two games. At this point you can’t start Gurley, Hill or Smith in the first round of your fantasy playoffs.
Chicago Bears
On the other hand, David Montgomery , is a RB who is getting hot at exactly the right time. When we wrote about Montgomery in our column prior to Week 8, he was RB27 on the season and averaging 13 fantasy points per game (FPPG). Since then in his last four games he’s averaging 4.67 YPC, scored three TDs and averaging 3.5 catches per game. In his last three games he’s RB1 overall based on FPPG per Fantasy Football Today. He should keep rolling as two of his next three opponents (Texans and Jaguars) are in the top five in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
Buffalo Bills
Changes in distribution of workload within a given backfield can sometimes happen unexpectedly based on in game action. In the five games between Week 7 and 12 Zack Moss began to carve out a larger role in the Bills’ offense. He played an average of just under 54% of the Bills’ offensive snaps, compared to Devin Singletary ’s 47%. He also averaged more carries per game (9.2 vs. 7.8) and had more total red zone carries (18 vs. 16) than Singletary. However in Week 13, Moss was benched after a first quarter fumble and ended up playing just 15% of the Bills’ offensive snaps, while Singletary played 85%. Unless you play in a deep league, you probably weren’t using either Bills RB on a regular basis, but if desperation has forced you to use Moss out of the flex spot this season his snap rate and usage will probably rebound. However, he’s got a very tough matchup against the Steelers so you might want to find a better option.
New York Jets
Jets RB Ty Johnson may just be that better option. Frank Gore suffered a concussion in Week 13 and although he hasn’t officially been ruled out as this article is being written, there’s a good chance he’ll be on the sidelines in Week 14. Johnson carved up the Raiders defense for 104 rushing yards on 22 carries (4.73 YPC) and added a rushing TD. He’s got a favorable matchup against the Seahawks who had trouble stopping the run in Week 13 and gave up 135 yards on the ground to Giants RB Wayne Gallman . It’s not often that you can pick up a bell cow back off of the waiver wire in the first week of fantasy playoff season. Take advantage of it.
Detroit Lions
Frank Gore could possibly be sidelined in Week 14, but Adrian Peterson , another elder statesman NFL RB, might have an opportunity to operate as the Lions’ lead back against a Packers team that has given up the third most FPPG to the position. You never like to see someone lose their job, but with the firing of former head coach Matt Patricia, Lions players collectively feel as if a tremendous weight has been lifted from their shoulders and they showed it in their big win against the Bears in Week 13. They probably won’t beat the Packers this week but the game might be competitive for a while. If D’Andre Swift (concussion) and Kerryon Johnson (knee), are sidelined Peterson could be in line for a productive game. TDs are tough to predict but Peterson has scored two in two straight games. He’s also tied for ninth in the NFL with 27 red zone carries. Peterson loves playing against the Packers. In 20 career games against the Pack he has a 5.14 YPC average and has scored a total of 17 TDs.