The NFL season is quickly approaching and with training camp in full swing, preseason games underway and position battles being worked out now is the time to take a look at some NFL Futures Player Props.
Last season we had a near-perfect record if not for the injury suffered by Russell Wilson when it came to identifying some projections we could take advantage of so let's keep that momentum going with this year's NFL futures best bets to take advantage of over on PrizePicks!
Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints
Over 3,750.5 Passing Yards
This is an interesting number for Winston for a couple of reasons. First, for Winston to hit the over on this total all he needs to do is average 221 yards passing per game for a full 17-game season. If Winston was to sit out the final week of the year because the Saints have a playoff spot locked up all he would need to do is average 235 yards passing per game to hit the over. Prior to last season, Winston never averaged less than 252.6 yards per game passing. Now, last season was a big down year for him in terms of yardage as he averaged just 167.1 yards per game over his seven starts. This could be a concern for some but I'm going to give him a pass considering his top receivers were Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris and Tre'Quan Smith. Entering 2022 the Saints receiving group now currently consists of a healthy Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and first-round pick Chris Olave. Quite the upgrade of pass catchers and that improvement should encourage the Saints to throw the football more in 2022 with Winston under center.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Over 4,450.5 Passing Yards
Burrow has one of the higher passing yard totals on the board but it's a number that we saw him eclipse last season and a number that he was on pace to beat as a rookie as well before going down with his knee injury if extrapolating his totals over a 17 game season. So, why would we think Burrow wouldn't get to this mark in 2022? The Bengals last season acknowledged they took it a bit easy on Burrow early in the year, relying on the running game as he got reacclimated following his knee injury but Week 4 was really the launching point for Burrow when he threw for 348 yards against the Jaguars and from Week 4 to Week 16 he was averaging 305.5 passing yards per game. The Bengals improved their offensive line this offseason and Burrow still has elite pass-catching options in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd who may be the best WR3 in all of football. Burrow lead the NFL in completion percentage last season and coming off a Super Bowl loss I am fully expecting him to take a big leap forward in 2022 where he will challenge for the league lead in passing yards making this passing yards total one he should have little trouble eclipsing as long as he stays healthy.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Over 875.5 Rushing Yards
The Ezekiel Elliott hate has been crazy over the past few seasons with everyone in the fantasy community calling for his demise and now we get his rushing yards total at a number that he has never missed in his career. That's correct, if Elliott was to go under this mark it would be the lowest rushing yardage total of his career. Last season, while playing on a torn PCL ligament in his knee he still finished with 1,002 yards over 17 games. In 2020 while missing one game he finished with 979 yards. For Zeke to go OVER this total this season all he has to do is averaged 52 rushing yards per game. Last year on a torn PCL he averaged 58.9 rushing yards per game. Elliott is healthy, he is the featured back in this offense no matter how much the Tony Pollard truthers say otherwise and unless he gets injured again, I really see no way he doesn't get to this mark.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Over 525.5 Rushing Yards
The NFL's current QB class is full of mobile quarterbacks and Fields certainly finds himself in that conversation. As a rookie, last season Fields finished with 386 rushing yards over his 10 starts which put him on a rushing yardage pace of 656 yards over the 17-game season. The Bears brought in a new coach and offensive coordinator this year and that offensive coordinator is Luke Getsy who last had the privilege of calling plays as the offensive coordinator for Mississippi State back in 2018. That season his QB ran for over 1,200 yards. Now, this is a pro-style NFL offense so I'm not expecting Fields to go out there and challenge for the league lead in rushing yards for a QB but he is an OC with experience calling plays for a mobile QB and I would expect the Bears to build their offense around the strengths of Fields which would be to run RPO's and allow him to create some plays in space with his legs. Now, Fields will also likely be running out of pure necessity this season as Chicago still boasts one of the league's worst offensive lines, and his ability to scramble when the pocket collapses, and it will collapse often, should help us get over that total as well. Let's just hope for good health.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Over 1,050.5 Receiving Yards
I saw this total and my jaw hit the floor. PrizePicks must know something that I don't because Allen has gone over this number in five of the last six seasons and the only reason he didn't hit the over in all six was because he played in just 14 games in 2020 due to injury and in those 14 games he still almost hit the over, finishing with 992 yards. Justin Herbert threw for over 5,000 yards last season and Allen is his number one receiver in terms of targets so unless he ends up missing games this year it just seems unlikely that the receiver who is averaging 1,183 yards per year over the past five seasons would find himself going under 1,000 yards this year.
Jerry Jeudy & Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Over 925.5 Receiving Yards & Over 900.5 Receiving Yards
I'm just going to lump both Bronocs receivers here into the same section because these totals were quite surprising when I saw them. The Broncos went out and made a big splash this offseason by trading for Russell Wilson. This is the same Russell Wilson that had no issue supporting TWO 1,000-yard receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett so it's something to see that both Jeudy and Sutton have receiving totals that are so low. Both Jeudy and Sutton also are likely to get a target bump following the season-ending injury to Tim Patrick who was going to be a very viable third receiver and compete for targets.
As a rookie we saw Jeudy finish with 856 yards with the likes of Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien throwing the football and that also included a game which wide receiver Kendall Hinton started at QB due to the Broncos covid situation. Needless to say, with any sort of competent QB play he would have likely had a good chance of going over this year's receiving yards prop now add in Russell Wilson and this feels like an all-systems go.
For Sutton, we saw him go for 1,112 yards in his second year in the league. He then tore his ACL in 2020 and last year finished with 776 yards with Drew Lock throwing the football. I'm again banking on the improved QB play from Russell Wilson to get both of these talented receivers to hit their ceilings.
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