NFL Playoffs Wild Card Round Match-up Report
The 2023 NFL playoffs kickoff this weekend with six games in the Super Wild Card Weekend. Things start off with the Seattle Seahawks visiting their divisional rival San Francisco 49ers on Saturday and finish with what could be Tom Brady’s final game in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform on Monday night. The NFL games this weekend are what the teams have been fighting for 18 weeks to get to. Now it’s our job to preview them and give playoff predictions, like our Playoff Bold Predictions from the staff. Below, you’ll find a full breakdown of every NFL game on the playoff schedule this week including storylines, game spreads, totals, 34 stats for every team, top NFL DFS plays, and finally a prediction for the games. So without any further ado, unlike the FAA, let’s start flying through the Wild Card games.
As a refresher, here’s a key to what each stat in the tables mean. Keep in mind the color-coding is geared toward better match-ups for the offense. So the more green you see in a table, the better the offensive conditions are.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Saturday 4:30 pm ET
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara CA
Game Spread: 49ers -9.5
Game Total: 42.5
Storylines
The Wild Card round starts off with a divisional rivalry for the third time this year. These teams always play feisty, and sometimes contentious, games and this one should be no different. There’s been a lot made of what Brock Purdy has been doing under center for the Niners and that can’t be minimized for sure however, the bigger question in this game is just what the weather will hold in store? It’s supposed to be wet…very wet. They are in the midst of an atmospheric river. That means the field conditions might be a huge unknown. In situations like this, the offense should be favored, regardless of team, because the offensive player knows where they want to go and can cut accordingly. The two games between them this year have been mainly dominated by San Fran even though the last game’s score appears closer than the game was. Seattle is playing a bit with house money at this point given everyone predicting them to have a top-five pick in the draft and vastly overachieving that prediction. That might make them more willing to try some new things in the play calling department.
Key Injuries To Watch
There are some key players to watch, though most of the players who are questionable are looking closer to playing than not. That includes Christian McCaffrey and some defensive pieces for Seattle.
| Saturday 4:30 pm ET | ||||
| Seahawks | at | 49ers | ||
| Stat | Rank | Offensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 23.9 | 9 | PPG | 6 | 26.5 |
| 28:40 | 30 | T.O.P. | 3 | 31:51 |
| 351.5 | 13 | Total Yards | 5 | 365.6 |
| 61.4 | 23 | Off Plays | 22 | 61.6 |
| 25 | 22 | Rush Att. | 9 | 29.6 |
| 120.1 | 18 | Rush Yds | 8 | 138.8 |
| 4.8 | 7 | Rush YPA | 10 | 4.7 |
| 33.7 | 15 | Pass Att. | 26 | 30.1 |
| 231.4 | 11 | Pass Yds | 13 | 226.8 |
| 7.5 | 8 | Pass YPA | 4 | 7.9 |
| Seahawks | at | 49ers | ||
| Stat | Rank | Defensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 23.6 | 25 | PPG Allowed | 1 | 16.3 |
| 361.7 | 26 | Yds/G Allowed | 1 | 300.6 |
| 5.5 | 21 | Yds/P Allowed | 4 | 5 |
| 150.2 | 30 | Rush Yds/G | 2 | 77.7 |
| 4.9 | 26 | Rush Yds/Att | 2 | 3.4 |
| 5.41 | 22 | RB Rec/G | 23 | 5.47 |
| 211.5 | 13 | Pass Yds/G | 20 | 222.9 |
| 6.6 | 16 | Pass Yds/Att | 11 | 6.4 |
| 17.1 | 17 | Def vs. QB | 27 | 15.6 |
| 26 | 4 | Def vs. RB | 32 | 14.6 |
| 23 | 30 | Def vs. WR | 6 | 31.8 |
| 15.2 | 1 | Def vs. TE | 25 | 8.4 |
| Seahawks | at | 49ers | ||
| Stat | Rank | Advanced Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 27.45 | 13 | Pace | 31 | 30.05 |
| 40.7% | 22 | Rush % | 7 | 48.1% |
| 59.3% | 11 | Pass % | 26 | 51.9% |
| 47.3% | 28 | RZ % | 18 | 54.0% |
| 59.6% | 24 | RZ % Allowed | 20 | 56.8% |
| 2.9% | 21 | Total DVOA | 1 | -14.1% |
| 3.8% | 17 | Pass DVOA | 5 | -8.0% |
| 1.9% | 25 | Rush DVOA | 2 | -23.6% |
| -11.60% | 7 | DVOA v. #1 WR | 4 | -21.80% |
| 28.30% | 30 | DVOA v. #2 WR | 18 | 1.20% |
| -39.00% | 1 | DVOA v. #3/4 WR | 30 | 27.40% |
| 17.10% | 27 | DVOA v. TE | 13 | -3.60% |
Top NFL DFS Plays
Seahawks: Tyler Lockett
Lockett has been the biggest point scorer for Seattle this year in fantasy overall. He outproduced DK Metcalf on the whole, but specifically against San Fran as well. In the two games prior to Saturday’s game against the Niners, Lockett has 16 catches and 178 yards to his credit while seeing 20 total targets. The Niners have been rough against the slot this year and Lockett has played nearly 40-percent of his receiver snaps out of the slot. If Lockett posts a seven-catch, 80-yard day and possibly a touchdown, we’re looking at a great afternoon.
49ers: Christian McCaffrey
Yes, he’s questionable. Yes, the weather is iffy. However, none of that is a concern for McCaffrey. Firstly, he’s going to play, that’s a given. Secondly, wet conditions improve the rushing volume. While Elijah Mitchell is expected to return this week, that also doesn’t hurt the main value in McCaffrey — his receiving ability. The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most points a game to running backs and nearly 5.5 receptions a game to them too. So even if Mitchell takes most of the carries, McCaffrey will still get rushing attempts and targets that Mitchell won’t. In the last game against them, his only this year, he carried it 26 times for 108 yards and a score while adding six catches for 30 yards. So even if he carries it 15 times, Seattle is allowing nearly five yards a carry which is 75 yards on 15 carries plus 5-6 catches makes him a no brainer.
Game Prediction
49ers 24 Seahawks 14
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday 8:15 pm ET
TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville
Game Spread: Chargers -2.5
Game Total: 47.5
Storylines
A rematch from Week 3 of this year when the Jaguars housed the Chargers to the tune of 38-10. Both teams feel like they’re rolling in that same direction to end the year too. Jacksonville comes in having won five straight games while the Chargers had won four straight prior to last week’s loss. This is perhaps the most balanced game of the weekend as a lot of folks have this game split down the middle for predictions. In fact, our own Bold Predictions Playoff picks has our staff splitting this game 9-9 amongst the 18 analysts. If the Chargers talent shows up as it can, and was expected to this year, they should be able to pull the “upset” based on seed. Oh yeah, and if Brandon Staley stops making silly coaching decisions. For Jacksonville’s part, their mojo is palpable right now and the chemistry that Trevor Lawrence has with his receivers which has powered their five-game winning streak.
Key Injuries To Watch
Mike Williams is questionable for the Chargers which shouldn’t come as a shock at this point of the year as that’s his default standing mid-week. For the Jaguars, James Agnew and Trevor Lawrence are both questionable but likely to play with the bigger question for Lawrence being the health of guard Brandon Scherff who can help secure the pocket and running lanes for Travis Etienne.
| Saturday 8:15 pm ET | ||||
| Chargers | at | Jaguars | ||
| Stat | Rank | Offensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 23 | 13 | PPG | 10 | 23.8 |
| 30:27 | 9 | T.O.P. | 16 | 29:43 |
| 359.3 | 9 | Total Yards | 10 | 357.4 |
| 67.9 | 2 | Off Plays | 18 | 63.1 |
| 23.8 | 28 | Rush Att. | 17 | 26.4 |
| 89.6 | 30 | Rush Yds | 14 | 124.5 |
| 3.8 | 30 | Rush YPA | 9 | 4.7 |
| 41.8 | 2 | Pass Att. | 10 | 35.1 |
| 269.6 | 3 | Pass Yds | 10 | 232.9 |
| 6.7 | 23 | Pass YPA | 18 | 7 |
| Chargers | at | Jaguars | ||
| Stat | Rank | Defensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 22.6 | 21 | PPG Allowed | 12 | 20.6 |
| 346.1 | 20 | Yds/G Allowed | 24 | 353.3 |
| 5.9 | 29 | Yds/P Allowed | 18 | 5.4 |
| 145.8 | 28 | Rush Yds/G | 12 | 114.8 |
| 5.4 | 32 | Rush Yds/Att | 7 | 4.2 |
| 3.82 | 6 | RB Rec/G | 31 | 6.29 |
| 200.4 | 7 | Pass Yds/G | 28 | 238.5 |
| 6.7 | 21 | Pass Yds/Att | 22 | 6.7 |
| 16.8 | 20 | Def vs. QB | 9 | 19.5 |
| 25 | 7 | Def vs. RB | 15 | 21.3 |
| 25.7 | 28 | Def vs. WR | 19 | 27.9 |
| 9.5 | 20 | Def vs. TE | 7 | 12 |
| Chargers | at | Jaguars | ||
| Stat | Rank | Advanced Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 26.49 | 5 | Pace | 12 | 27.44 |
| 35.0% | 31 | Rush % | 17 | 41.8% |
| 65.0% | 2 | Pass % | 16 | 58.2% |
| 54.1% | 17 | RZ % | 20 | 53.5% |
| 53.2% | 12 | RZ % Allowed | 24 | 59.6% |
| 1.1% | 16 | Total DVOA | 26 | 6.1% |
| -3.8% | 10 | Pass DVOA | 30 | 19.7% |
| 6.7% | 29 | Rush DVOA | 11 | -11.8% |
| -1.30% | 16 | DVOA v. #1 WR | 28 | 15.90% |
| -23.50% | 2 | DVOA v. #2 WR | 17 | -0.10% |
| 10.30% | 23 | DVOA v. #3/4 WR | 14 | -4.60% |
| 1.00% | 20 | DVOA v. TE | 32 | 37.70% |
Top NFL DFS Plays
Chargers: Austin Ekeler
It really isn’t hard. Ekeler has been the best weapon for them, and basically all of football, all year and now he gets a tasty match-up. The Jaguars are allowing the second-most receptions to running backs per game this year. Even with Jacksonville giving up just 114.8 yards rushing a game, though that was reduced a lot over the last 3-4 games in those non-rushing match-ups, the nearly 6.5 receptions a game is a big boon for Ekeler.
Jaguars: Christian Kirk
In eight games this year, Kirk has six or more catches. The Chargers are in the bottom-10 in the league against slot receivers which is where Kirk has played 67-percent of snaps this year. The rapport with Kirk seems to be stronger with Lawrence than him with any other receivers right now. We’ll lean on that rapport in a game with the highest over-under on the board as of Wednesday night.
Game Prediction
Chargers 24 Jaguars 21
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Highmark Stadium, Buffalo
Game Spread: Bills -13
Game Total: 43.5
Storylines
Where to start with this one? By now we all know what’s happening with Damar Hamlin and his recovery but the question is just how much momentum does that give the Bills going into the playoffs? We’ve seen teams that gel around a traumatic experiences can make it a long way in the postseason, plus add in the talent on this team and we’re looking at a legit Super Bowl contender. Add to that a cakewalk of a first game now that the Dolphins will be without Tua Tagovailoa and things are looking good for #BillsMafia. It’s hard to add anything for the Dolphins as far as storylines go with Skylar Thompson under center for Miami and their rip-roaring showing of 11 points against the Jets, at home, last week.
Key Injuries To Watch
Aside from Tagovailoa, there’s also concern about Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Teddy Bridgewater, TArik Armstead, and Jaelan Phillips. That’s a lot of depth for a team to be questionable. For the Bills it’s just Jordan Poyer and Isiah McKenzie who are question marks.
| Sunday 1:00 pm ET | ||||
| Dolphins | at | Bills | ||
| Stat | Rank | Offensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 23.4 | 11 | PPG | 2 | 28.4 |
| 29:20 | 24 | T.O.P. | 17 | 29:42 |
| 364.5 | 6 | Total Yards | 2 | 397.6 |
| 59.4 | 27 | Off Plays | 12 | 64.8 |
| 22.9 | 31 | Rush Att. | 15 | 26.9 |
| 99.2 | 25 | Rush Yds | 7 | 139.5 |
| 4.3 | 19 | Rush YPA | 2 | 5.2 |
| 34.4 | 13 | Pass Att. | 8 | 35.9 |
| 265.4 | 4 | Pass Yds | 7 | 258.1 |
| 8.2 | 1 | Pass YPA | 7 | 7.5 |
| Dolphins | at | Bills | ||
| Stat | Rank | Defensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 23.5 | 24 | PPG Allowed | 2 | 17.9 |
| 337.8 | 18 | Yds/G Allowed | 6 | 319.1 |
| 5.3 | 14 | Yds/P Allowed | 9 | 5.1 |
| 103 | 4 | Rush Yds/G | 5 | 104.6 |
| 4.1 | 6 | Rush Yds/Att | 14 | 4.3 |
| 5.47 | 23 | RB Rec/G | 15 | 4.75 |
| 234.8 | 27 | Pass Yds/G | 15 | 214.6 |
| 6.4 | 12 | Pass Yds/Att | 5 | 6 |
| 21.3 | 3 | Def vs. QB | 29 | 14.8 |
| 21.3 | 14 | Def vs. RB | 25 | 18.5 |
| 28.1 | 18 | Def vs. WR | 10 | 29.8 |
| 12.9 | 4 | Def vs. TE | 31 | 6.7 |
| Dolphins | at | Bills | ||
| Stat | Rank | Advanced Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 28.55 | 20 | Pace | 7 | 26.77 |
| 38.7% | 25 | Rush % | 18 | 41.5% |
| 61.4% | 8 | Pass % | 15 | 58.5% |
| 60.0% | 10 | RZ % | 9 | 60.3% |
| 59.3% | 23 | RZ % Allowed | 2 | 44.9% |
| 0.8% | 15 | Total DVOA | 4 | -11.0% |
| 12.4% | 25 | Pass DVOA | 9 | -4.9% |
| -17.5% | 4 | Rush DVOA | 3 | -19.7% |
| -8.20% | 10 | DVOA v. #1 WR | 29 | 19.50% |
| -5.20% | 13 | DVOA v. #2 WR | 14 | -5.20% |
| 7.00% | 20 | DVOA v. #3/4 WR | 11 | -10.60% |
| 28.20% | 30 | DVOA v. TE | 1 | -36.30% |
Top NFL DFS Plays
Dolphins: Tyreek Hill
Even when Tua hasn’t been on the field, Hill has still managed decent games through the air. Factor in that Buffalo ranks 29th in DVOA against opposing WR1s and have allowed the 10th-most points to wideouts. If the Dolphins are going to move the ball they’ll need a few big plays from Hill in the passing game to be sure.
Bills: Josh Allen
The Dolphins have allowed the third-most points per game to quarterbacks and this is one heck of a quarterback to face. He’s been a top-three quarterback in points per game at the position this year and he’s got all of his weapons wealthy. Even if Miami can slow down Allen’s rushing yards, which they’ve been good against rushing attacks, there’s still the fact that Allen is facing a defense allowing the sixth-most passing yards a game.
Game Prediction
Bills 35 Dolphins 10
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday 4:30 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Game Spread: Vikings -3
Game Total: 48
Storylines
The Vikings have been one of the most polarizing teams in the NFL this season; are they frauds or are they the real deal? Despite their record, they have a -3 point differential and have been caught with their pants down in a few matchups this season. The Giants have had their own struggles as of late, losing three of their last five, but they did keep the score close against the Vikings in Week 16, only falling short by three points. Can they get over the hump and win their first playoff game in over a decade?
Key Injuries To Watch
Gaints’ center Jon Feliciano is listed as questionable, but it’s the uncertainties on the defensive side of the ball that may cause them trouble. Azeez Ojulari, Adoree’ Jackson, and Leonard Williams all have questionable tags, and if they don’t suit up, it will be hard to contain Minnesota’s high powered offense. The Vikings are in better shape with only center Garrett Bradbury and safety Harrison Smith listed as questionable.
| Sunday 4:30 pm ET | ||||
| Giants | at | Vikings | ||
| Stat | Rank | Offensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 21.5 | 15 | PPG | 8 | 24.9 |
| 30:12 | 10 | T.O.P. | 26 | 29:14 |
| 333.9 | 18 | Total Yards | 7 | 361.5 |
| 64.1 | 15 | Off Plays | 6 | 66.1 |
| 30.6 | 8 | Rush Att. | 28 | 23.8 |
| 148.2 | 4 | Rush Yds | 27 | 97.7 |
| 4.8 | 5 | Rush YPA | 26 | 4.1 |
| 30.6 | 25 | Pass Att. | 3 | 39.5 |
| 185.7 | 26 | Pass Yds | 6 | 263.8 |
| 6.6 | 25 | Pass YPA | 10 | 7.2 |
| Giants | at | Vikings | ||
| Stat | Rank | Defensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 21.8 | 17 | PPG Allowed | 28 | 25.1 |
| 358.2 | 25 | Yds/G Allowed | 31 | 388.7 |
| 5.6 | 24 | Yds/P Allowed | 30 | 5.9 |
| 144.2 | 27 | Rush Yds/G | 20 | 123.1 |
| 5.2 | 31 | Rush Yds/Att | 22 | 4.5 |
| 2.76 | 1 | RB Rec/G | 21 | 5.29 |
| 214 | 14 | Pass Yds/G | 31 | 265.6 |
| 6.4 | 13 | Pass Yds/Att | 30 | 7.3 |
| 17 | 18 | Def vs. QB | 5 | 20.2 |
| 21.7 | 13 | Def vs. RB | 12 | 21.8 |
| 27.8 | 20 | Def vs. WR | 2 | 34 |
| 11.3 | 11 | Def vs. TE | 16 | 10.5 |
| Giants | at | Vikings | ||
| Stat | Rank | Advanced Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 27.91 | 15 | Pace | 3 | 26.33 |
| 47.8% | 8 | Rush % | 30 | 36.0% |
| 52.3% | 25 | Pass % | 3 | 64.0% |
| 63.3% | 7 | RZ % | 8 | 62.5% |
| 49.2% | 5 | RZ % Allowed | 21 | 57.1% |
| 10.2% | 29 | Total DVOA | 27 | 6.7% |
| 9.2% | 22 | Pass DVOA | 26 | 14.2% |
| 11.6% | 32 | Rush DVOA | 19 | -4.3% |
| 10.00% | 22 | DVOA v. #1 WR | 30 | 19.70% |
| -23.10% | 3 | DVOA v. #2 WR | 15 | -2.60% |
| -21.90% | 6 | DVOA v. #3/4 WR | 18 | 5.30% |
| 31.90% | 31 | DVOA v. TE | 25 | 8.90% |
Top NFL DFS Plays
Giants: Isaiah Hodgins
The Vikings are one of the worst teams in the league in containing outside receivers, and Isaiah Hodgins has already proven he can exploit them. In Week 16, Hodgins finished with eight receptions and 89 yards on 12 targets, as well with a touchdown, and he’s set up to repeat that performance this week. You can’t really go wrong with any of the Giants’ passing options, as the Vikings have given up the second-most fantasy points to the position, but Hodgins has the best chance to produce as a deep threat.
Vikings: Justin Jefferson
He’s the best receiver in the league, so let’s not make this hard. Justin Jefferson was electric this season, and the last time these two teams met, he finished with over 30 fantasy points. The Giants are 22nd in DVOA against the number one wide receiver, and I don’t think they have any prayer of stopping Jefferson. Let’s not make this hard.
Game Prediction
Vikings 27 Giants 24
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday 8:15 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
Game Spread: Bengals -8.5
Game Total: 44
Storylines
Since Lamar Jackson went down with a knee injury five weeks ago, the Ravens have been anemic, at best, on offense. To make matters worse, Tyler Huntley isn’t fully healthy, so they may be forced to start Anthony Brown on Sunday night. The Bengals have been very good on both sides of the ball, so with a backup quarterback and no real receiving corps to speak of, this game could be extremely lopsided. Their defense has been solid, ranking 12th in points allowed per game over the last three weeks, so unless Baltimore finds an offensive spark, they could be in for a long night.
Key Injuries To Watch
Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley are both officially listed as questionable, though it’s unlikely Jackson plays. Running back Gus Edwards and cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey also have questionable tags. Right guard Alex Cappa has already been ruled out for the Bengals, with Tee Higgins and Cam Taylor-Britt listed as questionable.
| Sunday 8:15 pm ET | ||||
| Ravens | at | Bengals | ||
| Stat | Rank | Offensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 20.6 | 19 | PPG | 7 | 26.1 |
| 31:09 | 7 | T.O.P. | 2 | 31:51 |
| 338.8 | 16 | Total Yards | 8 | 360.5 |
| 61.9 | 19 | Off Plays | 7 | 65.8 |
| 30.9 | 7 | Rush Att. | 24 | 24.9 |
| 160 | 2 | Rush Yds | 29 | 95.5 |
| 5.2 | 3 | Rush YPA | 29 | 3.8 |
| 28.7 | 28 | Pass Att. | 6 | 38.1 |
| 178.8 | 28 | Pass Yds | 5 | 265 |
| 6.6 | 26 | Pass YPA | 9 | 7.4 |
| Ravens | at | Bengals | ||
| Stat | Rank | Defensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 18.5 | 3 | PPG Allowed | 6 | 20.1 |
| 324.3 | 9 | Yds/G Allowed | 16 | 335.7 |
| 5.3 | 13 | Yds/P Allowed | 15 | 5.4 |
| 92.1 | 3 | Rush Yds/G | 7 | 106.6 |
| 3.9 | 3 | Rush Yds/Att | 9 | 4.2 |
| 5.47 | 23 | RB Rec/G | 12 | 4.44 |
| 232.2 | 26 | Pass Yds/G | 23 | 229.1 |
| 6.7 | 19 | Pass Yds/Att | 15 | 6.6 |
| 16.9 | 19 | Def vs. QB | 32 | 14.4 |
| 19.3 | 24 | Def vs. RB | 27 | 18.2 |
| 29.2 | 14 | Def vs. WR | 27 | 25.8 |
| 8.6 | 24 | Def vs. TE | 19 | 9.6 |
| Ravens | at | Bengals | ||
| Stat | Rank | Advanced Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 29.6 | 27 | Pace | 21 | 28.71 |
| 50.0% | 3 | Rush % | 28 | 37.9% |
| 50.0% | 30 | Pass % | 5 | 62.1% |
| 45.8% | 30 | RZ % | 5 | 64.9% |
| 46.4% | 3 | RZ % Allowed | 9 | 52.0% |
| -7.3% | 7 | Total DVOA | 11 | -4.4% |
| -2.5% | 11 | Pass DVOA | 12 | -0.5% |
| -14.5% | 7 | Rush DVOA | 14 | -9.5% |
| -4.90% | 12 | DVOA v. #1 WR | 6 | -16.20% |
| -1.80% | 16 | DVOA v. #2 WR | 31 | 28.40% |
| -5.30% | 13 | DVOA v. #3/4 WR | 24 | 12.70% |
| -11.70% | 7 | DVOA v. TE | 5 | -16.80% |
Top NFL DFS Plays
Ravens: Mark Andrews
Mark Andrews had a disappointing season, but he’ll have to play a big role in this game if the Ravens hope to win. Last week against the Bengals, Andrews saw nine targets and finished with 100 yards, so even with shaky quarterback play, he should be able to produce once again. The Bengals do rank fifth in DVOA against the tight end, but with one as good as Andrews, you can look past matchups and play your best player.
Bengals: Ja'Marr Chase
Even though the Ravens have been solid in containing wide receivers this season, with both corners banged up, Ja’Marr Chase is set to explode this week. Last week against Baltimore, Chase saw 13 targets, eight receptions, and 86 yards as well as a touchdown. With Tee Higgins questionable, it’s likely Chase sees a similar target share once again this week and comes out as a top performer for the Bengals yet again.
Game Prediction
Bengals 30 Ravens 17
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday 8:15 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
Game Spread: Cowboys -2.5
Game Total: 44.5
Storylines
These two teams met in Week 1, but their rosters couldn’t look more different now. Both the Cowboys and Buccaneers have been ravaged by injuries throughout the course of the season, so this matchup will look completely different from early December’s. Dallas’ defense, which was at one point considered the best in the league, has crumbled, allowing 24 points per game over their last three, up from their average of 20 on the season. Injuries in their secondary have allowed opposing teams to carve the Cowboys up through the air, so expect Tom Brady to have his way with them. The Buccaneers are dealing with multiple injuries on each side of the ball, so if Dak Prescott can limit turnovers, Dallas may be able to hang on and pull out a win.
Key Injuries To Watch
Dallas may be getting some much needed help on defense with Johnathan Hankins set to be activated off of injured reserve. Leighton Vander-Esch, DaRon Bland, and Tyler Biadasz are questionable, but are hopeful to play. Tampa Bay is in another boat, with several key players uncertain to suit up. Wide receiver Mike Evans and offensive linemen Robert Hainsey and DonoVan Smith are listed as questionable on offense with Vita Vea, Mike Edmonds, and Carlton Davis questionable on defense.
| Monday 8:15 pm ET | ||||
| Cowboys | at | Buccaneers | ||
| Stat | Rank | Offensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 27.5 | 4 | PPG | 25 | 18.4 |
| 29:17 | 25 | T.O.P. | 27 | 29:06 |
| 354.9 | 11 | Total Yards | 15 | 346.7 |
| 65.5 | 9 | Off Plays | 1 | 68.2 |
| 31.2 | 6 | Rush Att. | 32 | 22.7 |
| 135.2 | 9 | Rush Yds | 32 | 76.9 |
| 4.3 | 18 | Rush YPA | 32 | 3.4 |
| 32.7 | 19 | Pass Att. | 1 | 44.2 |
| 219.8 | 14 | Pass Yds | 2 | 269.8 |
| 7 | 16 | Pass YPA | 30 | 6.3 |
| Cowboys | at | Buccaneers | ||
| Stat | Rank | Defensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 20.1 | 5 | PPG Allowed | 13 | 21.1 |
| 330.2 | 12 | Yds/G Allowed | 9 | 324.3 |
| 5.1 | 7 | Yds/P Allowed | 10 | 5.1 |
| 129.3 | 22 | Rush Yds/G | 15 | 120.7 |
| 4.4 | 17 | Rush Yds/Att | 19 | 4.5 |
| 3.71 | 4 | RB Rec/G | 7 | 3.88 |
| 200.9 | 8 | Pass Yds/G | 9 | 203.6 |
| 6.2 | 9 | Pass Yds/Att | 7 | 6.1 |
| 16.2 | 22 | Def vs. QB | 15 | 17.6 |
| 17 | 30 | Def vs. RB | 26 | 18.5 |
| 32.4 | 5 | Def vs. WR | 7 | 30.5 |
| 6.7 | 30 | Def vs. TE | 8 | 11.9 |
| Cowboys | at | Buccaneers | ||
| Stat | Rank | Advanced Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 26.7 | 6 | Pace | 1 | 25.27 |
| 47.7% | 10 | Rush % | 32 | 33.3% |
| 52.3% | 23 | Pass % | 1 | 66.7% |
| 71.4% | 1 | RZ % | 22 | 52.0% |
| 52.0% | 9 | RZ % Allowed | 26 | 62.5% |
| -13.3% | 2 | Total DVOA | 13 | -2.9% |
| -11.3% | 3 | Pass DVOA | 15 | 2.7% |
| -15.7% | 5 | Rush DVOA | 13 | -10.4% |
| -4.40% | 13 | DVOA v. #1 WR | 15 | -2.50% |
| 28.90% | 32 | DVOA v. #2 WR | 19 | 5.50% |
| -30.40% | 2 | DVOA v. #3/4 WR | 19 | 5.70% |
| -19.90% | 4 | DVOA v. TE | 24 | 8.00% |
Top NFL DFS Plays
Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb
Lamb has been extremely consistent this season, and he’s primed for another big game against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh-most points to opposing wide receivers, and in a game that should be relatively back and forth, Lamb is sure to see plenty of looks. He saw double digit targets in eight games this season, including in Week 1 against Tampa Bay. The Bucs rank 15th in DVOA agains the number one receiver, but even a middle-of-the-road matchup should be productive for Lamb.
Buccaneers: Chris Godwin
Dallas’ defense has been extremely susceptible to the wide receiver position, but especially the number two receiver, ranking dead last in DVOA against the WR2. With Trevon Diggs matched up against Mike Evans, Godwin will be in line for a huge target share against either DaRon Bland or Kelvin Joseph. In the last three meaningful games of the season, Godwin crossed the 20 point threshold twice, and he should easily be able to do that again.
Game Prediction
Cowboys 27 Buccaneers 24