As the 2025 fantasy football season nears, breakout quarterbacks can take your roster to a championship. Dual-threat quarterbacks with rushing potential, high touchdown ceilings, and breakout potential offer tremendous value over their Average Draft Position (ADP). Based on the latest ADP data, this article explores quarterbacks who will perform better than expected and those to avoid to ensure a winning draft. You already know Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson are going to be elite fantasy plays so this article will focus on the NEXT tier of Sleepers, high-ceiling starters, and all those in between – here's your 2025 blueprint to QB supremacy.

 

Breakout QBs with Rushing Ability

Rushing quarterbacks have a high floor and explosive ceiling, making them perfect breakout candidates. These five players utilize their mobility to exceed their ADP.

Drake Maye (New England Patriots, ADP 129, QB18)

Drake Maye's rookie season showcased his mobility, rushing for 7.8 yards per carry and posting 17+ fantasy points in 6 of his last 12 starts in 2024. The Patriots bolstered with Stefon Diggs, rookie Kyle Williams, and a revamped offensive line (Morgan Moses, Garrett Bradbury, Will Campbell). With coach Mike Vrabel and coordinator Josh McDaniels, Maye's dual-threat ability can propel him to QB1 territory. His ADP is a bargain in deeper formats with top-10 potential.

Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals, ADP 90, QB9)

A guy I just can't quit, Kyler Murray, QB10 in 2024 with 3,851 passing yards and 572 rushing yards, plans to run more in 2025, building on his 7.3 yards per carry average. Despite passing inconsistencies (20th in yards per attempt), elite rushing creates a sky-high ceiling. Marvin Harrison's emergence enhances the Cardinals' offense, which justifies his ADP. A 7th or 8th-round pick, Murray can deliver top-5 value if he can stay healthy.

Bo Nix (Denver Broncos, ADP 80, QB8)

Bo Nix's rookie year saw him throw for 3,775 yards with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also added 430 yards and four scores on the ground. His accuracy, quick decision-making, and untapped rushing upside provide him with breakout potential at ADP 80. Denver's favorable schedule helps his ascent. Nix's value at this ADP positions him in the conversation as an elite QB in 2025.

Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars, ADP 142, QB22)

Trevor Lawrence's 2024 rushing touchdowns afforded a secure fantasy floor amidst offensive woes. New coach Liam Coen, with his quarterback-friendly offenses, may be the key to unlocking his potential. Brian Thomas is already an elite playmaker and Travis Hunter is an exciting prospect. We've already seen Lawrence with multiple 300-yard rushing seasons suggesting the upside is there. Lawrence's ADP presents him as a low-risk sleeper for those drafting in the later rounds. A rejuvenated Jaguars offense may thrust him into QB1 discussions, providing plenty of reward.

Justin Fields (New York Jets, ADP 116, QB10)

One of the biggest boom or bust players in the fantasy football, Justin Fields' 2022 rushing dominance (QB-leading yards) speaks to his elite mobility, even in spite of a 2024 toe injury. Fields is a borderline QB1 at his ADP, surrounded by the Jets weaponry of Garrett Wilson. Passing gains would launch him into top-shelf QB1 territory. His high ceiling makes him a must-target for managers searching for a dynamic mid-round QB.

 

Quarterbacks with Touchdown Potential

Quarterbacks that accumulate passing touchdowns are fantasy gold, particularly if they outperform their ADP. These four quarterbacks are set to increase their TD counts in 2025.

Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys, ADP 105, QB13)

Dak Prescott's floor of 30+ touchdown seasons, powered by CeeDee Lamb, makes him a reliable mid-level QB.  HC Brian Schottenheimer's aggressive offense can vault him back into top-5 consideration. Adding George Pickens to the offense only makes Prescott's 9th-round ADP that much more appealing as he provides a safe floor with upside for a breakout. He's a value selection for well-rounded rosters looking for steady production.

Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers, ADP 128, QB16)

Jordan Love showed flashes of brilliance in 2024, paving the way for positive touchdown regression in Green Bay's pass-happy offense. His ADP makes him an affordable backup with starter potential. Love's rapport with receivers such as rookie first round pick Matthew Golden enhances his prospects. He has top-10 potential, making him a value for managers who take him late.

Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears, ADP 102, QB14)

Caleb Williams tossed 20 touchdowns as a rookie, and with offensive guru Ben Johnson now running the show, Rome Odunze in year-two, DJ Moore and an improved cast, he's ready for a jump. His untapped rushing potential (400+ college yards) provides a fantasy bonus. Williams' ADP in the 8th or 9th round provides a high ceiling. He's an ideal breakout target for managers looking for a young QB1.

Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers, ADP 112, QB15)

Justin Herbert's 30+ touchdown seasons highlight his elite arm talent, now complemented by rookie wideout Tre Harris. The pass-happy offense of the Chargers aids in consistent production. Herbert's ADP allows him to be a steal for managers seeking steady QB output. His high ceiling sets him up for a breakout possibility in 2025.

 

New and Emerging Quarterback Talents

Rookies and young QBs can turn into fantasy studs if they are able to secure starting roles. Each of these four players has intriguing upside for 2025 drafts.

J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings, ADP 133, QB19)

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota's starter, is aided by Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson as part of an explosive offense. His collegiate efficiency indicates NFL readiness, with a floor similar to Brock Purdy (17.79 PPG). McCarthy's ADP renders him a late-round stash with QB1 upside. He's a sharp selection for superflex or dynasty leagues chasing upside.

Cameron Ward (Tennessee Titans, ADP 165, QB21)

Cameron Ward's dual-threat profile is a deep-league sleeper with arm talent and rushing upside. His ADP is late-round value, but he's a speculative selection unless he lands the Titans' starting role. Ward's raw potential is comparable to Jayden Daniels, but immediate impact is questionable. He fits risk-tolerant managers in larger leagues.

Michael Penix (Atlanta Falcons, ADP 157, QB23)

Michael Penix flashed potential in 2024, and Atlanta weaponry like Drake London enhances his chances as a starter. His arm ability meshes with the Falcons' vertical passing game. Penix's ADP offers low-risk value in deeper leagues. He could make some surprise fantasy contributions if he secures the QB1 role.

Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers, ADP 161, QB26)

Entering his third season, Bryce Young aims to rebound from a poor 2024 (QB22) with an improved supporting cast. An improved offensive line and wide receivers can potentially unlock growth. Young's late-round ADP offers a low-risk bet for upside. He's a value pick for patient superflex league managers.

 

 2025 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Avoid

Certain quarterbacks have drawbacks that surpass their ADP and make them bad draft picks for 2025. 

Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers, ADP 177, QB27) 

Aaron Rodgers, aged 41, has decreasing fantasy value due to injury (missed significant 2024 time) and age-related regression. His ADP suggests minimal upside in Pittsburgh's run-heavy system. Rodgers' compromised mobility reduces his floor compared to younger signal-callers. Managers must aim for more stable options in all formats. 

C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans, ADP 130, QB17) 

C.J. Stroud's promising rookie season is qualified by 2025 regression worries, in addition to Nico Collins' injury worries and offensive line problems. His ADP overestimates his possibilities due to a deficiency of rushing upside. Stroud's modest fantasy ceiling renders him a risky selection in the mid-rounds. Managers need to search for superior value elsewhere.

Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams, ADP 160, QB24) 

Back issues and injury concerns for 37-year-old Matthew Stafford cap his fantasy ceiling. The offense of the Rams can be run-heavier, reducing his volume. Stafford's ADP factors in his risks, being eclipsed by younger QB possibilities. He's a fade for higher-ceiling alternatives in 2025 drafts.