While everyone is looking for this year’s fantasy football sleepers, knowing which players not to draft can be significantly more valuable.

 

 

Last season, as we were telling everyone not to leave your first round without Saquon Barkley, we also told you to AVOID drafting Rachaad White.

Barkley was the epitome of a league-winner, but NOT drafting White in the second round was probably just as valuable to you in your bid for a championship. He was completely ineffective to open the season and by Week 4, he was already losing work to Bucky Irving. By Week 6, he lost the job completely.

That is what we call a fantasy football bust, and that’s what we’re going to help you avoid this season. But before we get into the list of players who made our “Do Not Draft” list, keep this one thing in mind: “bust” is actually a relative term.

 

 

What is a Fantasy Football Bust?

If someone is labeled as a “fantasy football bust,” it doesn’t mean the player is going to be a complete disaster. We encouraged you to avoid Sam LaPorta at his ADP last year (coming off the board as TE1 in the second round) and while that proved to be the right call, he still finished the year as TE6. Nothing wrong with the sixth-best tight end, but he also finished almost 100 fantasy points behind Brock Bowers. That’s what a fantasy football bust is – a player who does not return the value expected from where he was drafted; when the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

If your first-round pick stays healthy all season, you start him every week and he doesn’t return more than a sixth-round value, he’s a bust. If your first-round pick tears his ACL in Week 3, he shouldn’t be labeled as such. It’s just an unfortunate occurrence. There is a significant difference.

We can’t predict injuries. They can happen to anyone at any point. Football is a rough game. But what we can do is identify the players who are least likely to return the value you need or are expecting based on their current fantasy football ADP.

 

 

Top 10 Fantasy Football Busts for 2025

We’ve studied the teams, the players, the coaches and the offensive schemes. We know who we’re going to draft. Now, it’s time to see which fantasy busts we’ll be avoiding in the 2025-26 season.

2025 Fantasy Busts: QB Busts

Josh Allen, QB Buffalo Bills

Yes, we’re going to start out this way, once again. Last year I had Allen on this very same list, imploring people not to take Allen at his ADP. I didn’t like the weapons and I had numerous questions about the offense in regard to what the Bills were trying to do with Allen as both a passer and a runner. While he won the NFL MVP and finished second in fantasy points thanks to 14 rushing touchdowns, there were numerous reasons why I was actually right in my assessment.

Just a quick look at the 2024 statistics – Allen finished 12th in pass attempts, 13th in completions, eighth in passing yards and sixth in passing touchdowns. He also finished fourth in both QB rushing attempts and rushing yards, but posted just 4.85 yards per carry. Just to put that into perspective, Lamar Jackson ranked third in QB rushing attempts, first in rushing yards and posted a 6.47 YPC average. He also out-classed Allen in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. But yet here we are still drafting Allen first among quarterbacks? It doesn’t make sense.

Rushing touchdowns are Allen’s bread and butter. They are what gives him his fantasy value right now. Pocket passers like Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield bested his passing totals last year and guys like Kyler Murray and Bo Nix came pretty close to him in rushing yards and bested him in the YPC category. Can we genuinely rely on his rushing touchdown totals every year? That’s exactly hat we’ve done these last two seasons and at some point, the luck will run out. 

We’ve already seen a stronger reliance on James Cook once the Bills reach the green zone (inside the 10-yard-line) and offensive coordinator Joe Brady continues to tailor the offense more towards his game plan than that of Allen putting the team on his back and carrying them by himself. Just look at the “Big Pass Games” for Allen as those numbers have declined since Brady took over the offense and the play-calling. 

Last season saw the fewest pass attempts since 2019 and 300-plus games are slowly fading away. This scheme dictates low-aDOT throws and doesn’t keep Allen’s attention downfield by more than 20 yards anymore. There is no alpha receiver either which definitely hurts the overall continuity of this passing attack. Interchangeable cogs in the passing attack work if you want a quick-release so you can dink-and-dunk down the field, but it’s not helping the downfield work for Allen or your fantasy teams.

It's not that I am anti-Allen or anti-Bills. I am simply saying that that taking Allen as the No. 1 quarterback means you believe the double-digit rushing touchdowns will continue and they will offset the decline in passing and rushing totals. I just can’t get onboard with that when I can take one of the other top-rushing quarterbacks a few picks or even a round or two later, or I can simply wait on guys like Nix and Murray who are doing very similar things stats-wise, but come at a much bigger discount. 

C.J. Stroud, QB Houston Texans

There are several concerns with regard to Stroud this season and it actually bums me out because I really like the player. Unfortunately, we’ve got some things working against us and it looks like this could be a tough season for Stroud and the Texans. Let’s start with the fact that he’s learning a new offense under OC Nick Caley.

Caley is one of those rarities who doesn’t sit under one particular coaching tree. He likes the west coast style of passing he learned under Sean McVay, but he also understands the need for a strong run-pass balance like he saw under Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels when he was with the Patriots. We already know Caley is pushing for a stronger ground attack which is why we see Joe Mixon being joined by Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Woody Marks and Dare Ogunbowale. Not everyone is going to make the team, but Caley is prepared to house extra running backs this season which is an important note. Both schemes are effective, but finding the right balance can be difficult, especially when your offensive line is weak.

Check out Dan Malin’s Offensive Line Breakdown for more details, but the fact remains that this is not a good offensive line. It was terrible for run-blocking last season, mediocre for pass-protection and the team parted ways with two of its most effective linemen. Stroud may have more autonomy at the line this year, but he’s going to be preoccupied with making sure the protection schemes are right so he doesn’t get killed out there.

And then, finally, there’s the shoulder issue for Stroud. We heard some rumblings late last year, but he still played in all 17 games. But so far this offseason, he’s been dealing with both shoulder soreness and a pectoral issue. They kept him from throwing during OTAs, but had him out there for 7-on-7 drills during mini-camp. The team is downplaying it, but with the expected beating he’s going to take with that lackluster offensive line, there should be concern. 

 

 

2025 Fantasy Busts: RB Busts

Bucky Irving, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Many of you are probably stunned by seeing Irving’s name here, especially because I was the one banging the drum for him last season and louder than anyone else. But that was then and this is now. Irving is still the same player, but the situations have changed and that’s why I’m having a tough time clicking the draft button when it’s my turn to pick. The fantasy football ADP puts him in as a second-round pick and with who else is available at that point, plus the potential changes in Tampa’s offense, I have some concerns.

Again, let me reiterate that I am still very much a fan of the player. I like Bucky Irving. What I don’t like is the unknown regarding how new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard will deploy him. On the surface, things should run similar to last year. The Bucs retained offensive line coach Kevin Carberry and we expect to see the same blocking scheme used. But Grizzard is a pass-happy guy and while we know he won’t ignore the run, we expect to see a ton of 11-personnel and a lot of downfield passing. After all, they used some serious draft capital on Emeka Egbuka even with all the positive news regarding Chris Godwin’s recovery. Mike Evans is looking for his 12th-straight 1,000-yard season and let’s not sleep on Jalen McMillan who was a league-winner for many down the stretch last season. Yes, they will run, but so much is lining up for the pass.

And with all of that lining up for passing, we still have Rachaad White on the roster. Don’t forget, his pass-blocking is still considered good as he ranked sixth overall in 2023, according to Pro Football Focus. Irving eventually shoved him to the side last year, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see him open the season in a shared role.

There are plenty of other preferred names on the board around Irving’s ADP. Give me Jonathan Taylor or Kyren Williams over him. Give me A.J. Brown or Drake London. If he were to fall a round, then perhaps I’d be interested, but then again, I also really love Kenneth Walker and Chuba Hubbard, so it looks like I’m out here.

UPDATE 8/20: The more I dive into new OC Josh Grizzard's offense, the more I've thought about getting back in on Bucky. Grizzard may want to throw the football more, but he is definitely adhering to head coach Todd Bowles mandate to keep the offense the same as last season. Irving will continue to see strong volume and White does not appear to be a threat at this time. Feel good about drafting Bucky again. I know I am.   

Alvin Kamara, RB New Orleans Saints

This one is going to ruffle some feathers, but you know I don’t care about that. The Rachaad White people tried coming for me last year. The Austin Ekeler fans came after me the year before. And what happened? Yeah, I’m the guy hoisting the trophy and counting my winnings while they were all spending their February trying to delete the nasty tweets they posted about me.

Here's the scoop – if you don’t want to read, then check out this video that was posted by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio which lays it all out for you. If you can’t stand the sound of my voice or the look of my face, then it’s very simple – Kellen Moore doesn’t throw to his running backs. It’s not a negative on Moore. It’s just the way he runs his offense.

When Moore was in Dallas, those who owned Tony Pollard complained constantly that he wasn’t a part of the passing game. Ekeler was coming off a career-year in 2022 (204 carries for 915 yards and 13 TD; 107 receptions for 722 yards and 5 TD) and saw 53 fewer targets with Moor as his new OC. Even Saquon Barkley, who was an absolute monster of a rusher, saw just 53 targets all season, the lowest of his career save for the one season where he only appeared in two games.

The fact of the matter is that Moore has his quarterbacks looking downfield, not passing out to the flat. Yes, Kamara will be the lead back and probably see more rushing attempts than the other backs on the roster, but the guy is 30-years-old, has never had a 1,000-yard season and if he’s now not seeing the same targets, where is the value. You can tell me everything he did in years past and that you can’t put that back in the bottle, but you know what…? You can and Kellen Moore will.  

 

 

2025 Fantasy Busts: WR Busts

DK Metcalf, WR Pittsburgh Steelers

I’m not going to lie – there is a lot of anti-Aaron Rodgers sentiment here and while I know we don’t play fantasy with our hearts, the pain of watching him as the Jest quarterback these past two seasons (well…one really) has been emblazoned in my brain and I cannot forget it. He alienated the team’s two biggest weapons, ruined the team with his selfishness and I don’t see him changing his ways which is why I’m struggling with Metcalf.

Again, Metcalf is a player who I absolutely love, but jelling with Rodgers is going to be a difficult thing. Rodgers prefers to throw the ball to a spot on the field where he expects his receivers to be. Timing is critical. Reading the defense in exactly the same way as Rodgers is also important. While Metcalf is a fantastic player overall, there are definitely times when his route-running comes into question. He also likes getting physical with the defensive backs and between those two things, it could hinder his ability to be exactly where Rodgers wants him. 

Perhaps the volume makes up for everything and he returns strong value on his fourth or fifth-round ADP, but there are certainly going to be growing pains. If those issues lead to Rodgers pushing for other receivers, i.e. Allen Lazard, we could see some problems for Metcalf. It’s a good thing they’re only going to be together for one season.   

Jaylen Waddle, WR Miami Dolphins

Here’s another one that puts me on the opposite side of so many fantasy players. More like college football fans, actually. Waddle came out of Alabama and everyone was raving about how great a receiver he was and how he was going to dominate in the NFL. He had a really good first season and then, while his receiving yards and touchdowns increased, his targets dropped the following year, likely because his quarterback missed four games.

Then Waddle missed some time in 2023 and saw his overall numbers take a step back. Then last year, he lost his quarterback for some time, missed some games of his own and put up just 744 yards on 58 catches with two touchdowns, all career-low marks. So now for the last two years, we’ve watched his numbers decline, including his yards per target and yards per catch, watched him struggle with injuries of his own and struggle through injuries to his quarterback. Is any of that going to change this year? I don’t think so. 

I always say to draft injury-agnostic with regard to players, but considering Tua’s history as well and the fact that the Dolphins don’t have a great back-up (sorry, Zach Wilson), what’s to come of this team’s passing attack and what will Waddle’s final numbers look like? Will they be better than the totals of George Pickens? Jerry Jeudy? Calvin Ridley? Chris Godwin? I can’t say for certain, but I can say I would rather take a shot on any of the four than play this game with Waddle.   

Chris Olave, WR New Orleans Saints

This one will be quick. I promise. Because once again, I absolutely love the player but not the Saints and certainly not their quarterback. Olave, when healthy and with a legitimate quarterback, is a fantasy dream. But with the lengthy concussion history and the fact that he’s one “hospital ball” away from calling it quits, I just cannot take the chance on him at his ADP given the quarterback situation. Tyler Shough has major concerns at the NFL level and Spencer Rattler showed us last year what he’s capable of doing which isn’t that much. This offense is going to struggle and the inaccuracies of the quarterbacks makes this pick far too risky for me. Let him be someone else’s headache, no pun intended.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR New York Giants

People are going to look at last year’s 140 targets and salivate. We are not being fooled by them. The Giants were a hot mess last year and were forced to throw a lot more than they would have liked, especially with all of their quarterback shortcomings. And what’s worse is just how unproductive Robinson was with all of those targets. His 5.0 yards per target was the lowest in NFL history among receivers with at least 40 targets and no fantasy owner is going to love on his 699 receiving yards or his three touchdowns.

This season is also going to be a troubling one for Robinson as his quarterback doesn’t like to throw over the middle. He’s great with the deep throws and can toss moonshots down the sideline with the best of them, but at 5’11” he has trouble seeing over the linemen and has routinely preferred to throw it to the outside. And if he is throwing it over the middle, who is more likely to be in his line of sight – a 5’8”, 180-pound Robinson or a 6’6”, 260-pund Theo Johnson? His ADP has him coming off the board in the 14th or 15th round, but at that point of my draft, I’m looking for much bigger upside. 

 

 

2025 Fantasy Busts: TE Busts

Jonnu Smith, TE Pittsburgh Steelers

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. After a dynamic season that saw Smith catch 88 passes for 884 yards and eight touchdowns, the hype was off the charts. Some were even ranking him among the top five at the position, even though the majority of his production occurred in the wake of injuries to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But after an offseason deal that sees him reunited with former head coach and current Steelers OC, Arthur Smith, Jonnu’s value is toast.

While we all understand the Steelers wide receiver corps is not deep and that could push Rodgers to utilize his tight ends, the fact that Smith is sharing the work with Pat Freiermuth as well as Darnell Washington and Connor Heyward, makes trusting in him as your starting tight end a very tricky proposition. I’m sure Arthur will find a way to make Jonnu the Steelers leading rusher inside the five-yard-line (yes, I’m being sarcastic), that’s not why we’re supposed to be drafting him. Targets will be tough. Week-to-week consistency will be tough. This is as big a “DO NOT DRAFT” sign as it gets. Stay away.

Tucker Kraft, TE Green Bay Packers

Now I can sit here and talk ad nauseum about how the Packers capitulated to the pressure of their fanbase, drafted a wide receiver in the first round and maybe that means they will throw the ball more, but even if that’s true, why are we looking at Kraft? This guy is about as boring as you can get in fantasy and even though there isn’t a steep price to acquire him, the real question is, why would you want him anyway?

Just take a look at the game log from last season, a year considered solid by his proponents. But is that what we want? Four targets per game? Three catches per game? Forty-two yards each week, on average? And keep in mind, the yardage numbers are skewed by a couple of big catches amid some busted coverage. That’s not going to happen regularly and if he doesn’t get into the end zone his value is kaput. Throw in the extra receivers and a healthy Luke Musgrave and I will gladly pass on Kraft. I’d rather look at guys like Hunter Henry, Brenton Strange and Mason Taylor before I bore my team to death with a pick of Kraft.

 

 

Top 10 Fantasy Football Busts for 2025

To recap, here are my 2025 Fantasy Football Busts:

  1. Josh Allen, QB Buffalo Bills
  2. C.J. Stroud, QB Houston Texans
  3. Bucky Irving, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  4. Alvin Kamara, RB New Orleans Saints
  5. DK Metcalf, WR Pittsburgh Steelers
  6. Jaylen Waddle, WR Miami Dolphins
  7. Chris Olave, WR New Orleans Saints
  8. Wan’Dale Robinson, WR New York Giants
  9. Jonnu Smith, TE Pittsburgh Steelers
  10. Tucker Kraft, TE Green Bay Packers

Keep in mind that the Top 10 Fantasy Busts laid out here are organized by position, not any kind of rankings. We don’t need any more controversy added to this…

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