If there’s one thing you can count on in fantasy football, year after year, it’s a massive love for NFL rookies. The shiny, new toy, the mystery box as Andrew Cooper says, whatever you want to call it, someone in your league is a college football enthusiast and wants nothing more than to be the one who “discovers” the NFL’s next big thing. Not that there’s anything or anyone to discover, per se. They just love being the person who drafts the youngster and, if he pops in Year 1, can be the one to say, “I knew he would be a stud.”

 

 

But as we routinely say in the Fantasy Alarm NFL Draft Guide, drafting rookies early can be a very dangerous game. While yes, we’ve seen stars like Ezekiel Elliott get drafted early and perform at a high level, we’ve also seen rookies wildly over-drafted and instantly become disappointments. Take Marvin Harrison from last season. He actually had a great season for a rookie on a rebuilding team as he finished the year with 885 yards and eight touchdowns on 62 receptions and 116 targets. But since everyone drafted him in the early second round expecting a premier season like Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, his overall totals left his owners wanting more. A lot more.

And speaking of Chase and Jefferson, remember their rookie camps? Jefferson had a run of drops and, if memory serves, a hamstring issue that slowed him in camp. Chase couldn’t catch the football because it didn’t have white stripes on it like the college ball and he had trouble seeing it. Neither of them was taken in the first half of fantasy drafts in their rookie seasons and both ended up as dominant forces at bargain prices.

Every draft class is different. There are hyped up guys who get drafted early and may disappoint and there are lesser-known commodities who could shine bright and turn a 14th-round dart-throw into a super-stud first-rounder next year. With the calendar about to flip to August and training camps underway, now is as good a time as any to see how the rookies are shaping up. They’ve gone through May OTAs and June mini-camps. Let’s see who’s doing what and what we as fantasy players should be watching for as we head into our drafts. 

 

 

Quarterbacks

Cameron Ward, Tennessee Titans

The No. 1 overall pick seems firmly entrenched as the starter this season. Will Levis is having season-ending shoulder surgery already and Ward has very little competition for first-team reps. As a developing first-timer, there is no reason to treat Ward as anything but a third quarterback in a superflex format. He has strong weapons but there will always be growing pains, so throw a dart at him if you like but don’t rely on him as your guy.

Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns

Some of you are super-excited about this and some of you are cringing right now. Whichever side you are on, you should have expected this. I said it on SiriusXM that I believed Sanders would be the Browns starting quarterback for Week 1 and I'm not backing off. It's not that he looked as good as he did in his preseason debut. It's that we saw what we saw and we haven't heard any recent reports citing his personality. The attitude is what stands between him and a starting job. He's more talented than some of the starting quarterbacks around the NFL and he's definitely got more upside/appeal than Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett or Dillon Gabriel. Put the personal feelings aside if you're a hater. If Sanders shines in future practices, scrimmages and preseason games, we could be looking at a really nice bargain for your third QB in a superflex. Yeah, that's right…not ready to bump him beyond that, but I'm certainly watching!

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

He’s having a perfectly fine camp as he learns the ropes behind two very capable veterans. At some point later in the season, once the Giants are out of playoff contention, he could start to get some looks from Brian Daboll, but he’s not someone you want in a redraft league this season. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Russell Wilson hold the job all season long.

Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints

Likely to be thrown directly into the fire at the start of the season, Shough is sharing first-team reps with Spencer Rattler right now and probably will for a little while longer here in camp. Even with reports that he is struggling and Rattler has a slight edge, Shough is expected to emerge as the starter. Similar to Ward, you could look to him as a third QB for superflex but he is not someone fantasy owners want to rely on. The weapons are there and we expect the Saints to be so bad that they are forced into throwing heavy late in games, but that’s not how you want to build your team.

 

 

Running Backs

Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders

Expectations are high and so is his ADP. I’ve seen Jeanty go as high as fifth in a draft, so you know everyone is pushing the chips all-in. He will be the focal point of Chip Kelly’s offense and we all know Pete Carroll loves to run the football as much as he loves to chomp gum on the sidelines. The fantasy community is basically looking at him as this year’s Bijan Robinson but without the Arthur Smith/Tyler Allgeier nonsense. He’s having a solid enough start to camp that I think you can draft with confidence. Don’t overrate the struggles for production in the first preseason game. This offensive line got some help during the offseason and everyone is learning a new Playbook. Fun fact: there are only 10 holdovers from the 2024 Raiders so everything is still a little new.

Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers

He’s getting a lot of steam lately with Najee Harris sitting out with a mysterious eye injury suffered during a fireworks mishap on the Fourth of July. Harris hasn’t been active in camp at all and Hampton is getting first-team reps over the likes of Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins. Sure, the Chargers added Nyheim Hines to the mix, but this is starting to look more and more like Hampton’s backfield. I still have concerns for him in relation to Harris’ potential workload. If the eye issue clears up, the Chargers are paying him $9.5M with $5M guaranteed. They’re not going to just throw that money away if he’s healthy.

TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots

Pats fans are getting their wish as they continue their search for the next James White. We know how OC Josh McDaniels utilized White back in the day and right now, he seems to be doing just that with Henderson. Reports are coming in about how McDaniels is lining Henderson up all over the field and keeping him very heavily incorporated in the passing attack. What a debut in the preseason, amirite?  Taking the opening kickoff to the house is fun to watch and he seems as explosive as advertised, but I’m not pushing him up draft boards just yet. I do think, in full-point PPR formats, he could be a great pick at his current fantasy football ADP.

Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns

Not touching him with a 10-foot pole. No way. There are domestic violence charges looming, he’s not with the team and all reports out of Cleveland say that the team is in no rush to sign him to his rookie contract. Sure, there’s talent there, but I’m not touching him nor am I recommending him to anyone. If you want a Browns back, Jerome Ford is likely the primary with fellow rookie Dylan Sampson getting the third-down passing work.

RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos

I liked Harvey coming into the NFL Draft and I walked away loving him when I saw he landed in Denver. Joe Lombardi and Sean Payton do amazing things for their running backs in the passing game and with the signing of J.K. Dobbins, it looks like he and Harvey will blossom into the next Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram tandem Lombardi and Payton had in New Orleans. What was even more encouraging was how the coaching staff gave rave reviews to Harvey’s work once the pads went on in camp. He fits the wide-zone blocking scheme very well, has good hands and a strong field of vision. I’ve drafted him in plenty of the Beat Howard Bender Best Ball Tournament drafts. Don’t freak out about him being fifth on the depth chart. While we’ve heard he needs to work on his pass-protection and that Dobbins has the lead right now, Payton is notorious for listing his rookies last every year. He did it to Kamara and he did it to Michael Thomas. Let’s not panic. 

Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

I really like the player and I feel like he fits the scheme Arthur Smith is running in the Steel City. He’s a no-brainer pick in dynasty and I definitely have shares of him across all formats right now. However, we are seeing some early reports that he is struggling with his pass-blocking and that is never good for a rookie. Especially when you have a guy like Jaylen Warren on the team, a guy who is routinely lauded for his pass-blocking talents. He’ll have a solid share of the work, but keep a close eye on camp reports moving forward to see if he’s making the improvements we fantasy owners need him to make.

Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars

It hasn’t been the best of starts for the former Virginia Tech speedster as he experienced some fumbling issues in mini-camp that plagued him during the latter part of his college career. Now he’s sitting on the sidelines nursing a hamstring issue, so Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are getting al the work. That’s not to say Tuten is a bust, but you should definitely temper your expectations if you are looking to draft him. He’ll sit third on the depth chart and likely needs an injury or two to earn a larger role.

Cam Skattebo, New York Giants

He’s starting to become a bit of a cult hero for Giants fans and he just started to get some first-team reps, but don’t let that sway you too much. This should still be Tyrone Tracy’s backfield for the most part with Skattebo coming in on some between-the-tackles, short-yardage work as well as some snaps at or near the goal-line. I don’t see him racking up a ton of yardage, but I could definitely see him as an annoying touchdown-vulture. Keep watching how they are using him in camp and don’t be afraid to draft him at his current ADP, even with the current injury.

Jaydon Blue, Dallas Cowboys

There was a report that stated former Cowboys assistant coach Glenn Smith referred to Blue as “borderline lazy,” which set off quite a few alarms for people. But in response, head coach Brian Schottenheimer spoke very complimentary of Blue’s talents on the field and then gave him first-team reps the next day. Then OC Klayton Adams praised his rookie runner as well, citing his explosiveness with the ball in his hands. Maybe this is just coach-speak in hopes that the kid’s confidence doesn’t get shaken, but keep a watchful eye on how he is used in camp over the next few weeks. Miles Sanders and Javonte Williams seem to have an early hold on the job.

 

 

Wide Receivers

Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars

We already knew there would be plenty of buzz surrounding Hunter and the early reports that had him playing predominately as a wide receiver and only playing defense on a limited basis still didn’t deter people from taking him around the fifth round of their best ball tournaments. But then we watched him struggle a bit as a receiver, catching the ball with his body and not his hands, and suddenly, people started to cool on him. His ADP dipped to the sixth/seventh round which, in my opinion is a much more sensible price. But then ESPN listed him as a WR/CB and he started playing two-way a lot more in practice and scrimmages, so now people are back to chasing him. I don’t mind drafting him, but probably no higher than the sixth0round for me. He needs to show bigger improvements as a receiver before I invest in any pick higher than that.  

Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

He’s having a solid camp and everything seems to be in-line for him to remain the Panthers’ No. 1 receiver and top target for Bryce Young. He is currently dealing with a minor leg issue, but there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of concern. I wish his ADP was a little lower, but I still believe he could be looking at a 25-percent target share and with that kind of volume, you definitely want a piece of him.

Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

He’s already getting rave reviews from beat writers and the coaching staff and while Todd Bowles continues to remind everyone that Chris Godwin remains “on-track in his recovery,” we are now hearing there is a possibility that he misses a few games to start the season. We’re gaining some steam here on Egbuka with that news and if Godwin heads to the PUP list to open the season, the door is wide open for the rookie. Maybe he shares snaps with Jalen McMillan, but this is increasingly becoming a key opportunity. I’m not pushing him up draft boards just yet, but I’m definitely clicking the draft button more now than I did just two weeks ago. 

Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers

Yes, the Packers drafted him in the first round and yes, he is likely to be a better field-stretching option than Christian Watson. But Golden is already dealing with some early camp growing pains and while he is fast, the team is trying to get him up to speed on route-running and catching the football. He’s had some nice moments but he’s also made some mistakes. Hopefully the ADP takes a dip and we can take a shot on him at a lower cost, much in the way we were able to do with Chase and Jefferson. Not that we are equating talents – more just hoping some negative camp-talk gets us a lower price tag.

Jayden Higgins, Houston Texans

No news is good news. How about that? We know the talent is there, but there really haven’t been many reports discussing how he’s looked in camp and I’m ok with that. We know the offense suits him well and with C.J. Stroud having more autonomy at the line, perhaps he and Higgins continue to form a bond. Continue t draft him at his ADP with confidence.

Luther Burden, Chicago Bears

If we were doing progress reports or end of semester grades, we’d have to give Burden an incomplete. He suffered a hamstring injury back in May and has only just now been back on the field at training camp. Ben Johnson says Burden “is a little behind right now,” and he is being eased back in on 7-on-7 drills. Keep following his progress.

Tre Harris, Los Angeles Chargers

All seemed fine until the Chargers signed Keenan Allen. Harris was having a strong camp and it looked like his chance to leapfrog Quentin Johnston was gaining strength each day. But then Allen signed and suddenly all those snaps in 12-personnel seemed to vanish like a fart in the wind. Ladd McConkey isn’t coming off the field so the second receiver in 12-personnel is likely to be a rotation of Allen, Harris and QJ that is dependent on field position and play-calling. I’m guessing Allen has the edge. And when they go into three-receiver sets, McConkey and Allen will be out there while Harris shares with Johnston. I’m still very bullish on him in dynasty, but I’ve been drafting less of him over these past few days. 

Jack Bech, Las Vegas Raiders

He’s gotten off to a good start with the team, though fellow rookie Dont’e Thornton is also getting some camp buzz as well. Neither will be passing Brock Bowers or Jakobi Meyers on the targets leaderboard, so don’t look to Bech as anything more than some roster depth for potential bye week issues. The ADP is low and probably shouldn’t move in redraft leagues at all. 

Kyle Williams, New England Patriots

Much like Higgins from Houston, no news for Williams is good news. He’s had moments of being splashed in with the first-team, but he is still very much learning the complexities of a McDaniels offense. He’s good to be drafted at his current ADP because there is strong potential that he finds his way into the No. 2 receiver role behind Stefon Diggs. Sure, you’ve got Mack Hollins as a field-stretcher and Demario Douglas as a low-aDOT, move-the-chains type guy, but Williams has the ability to develop into a more complete receiver and a bigger asset for Drake Maye.

 

 

Tight Ends

Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears

It’s been a rough spring and summer for the No. 10 overall pick as offseason shoulder surgery has kept Loveland out of OTAs and mini-camps. Just like his fellow rookie teammate Luther Burden, Loveland is now being eased into camp in 7-on-7 drills and will continue to work with the second team. It shouldn’t be long before he starts seeing more action, but don’t expect Cole Kmet to go away anytime soon, given the work he is already putting in.

Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

There has been a lot of camp praise doled out on the rookie tight end and it seems like the Colts finally have their guy. What’s even better is that he’s becoming a reliable option for both Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones, so whoever wins this job, at least we know there’s an on-field rapport already established. Personally, I prefer Jones to win the job as he is the stronger passer, but we are hearing some things about improvements being made to Richardson’ passing work as well.

Mason Taylor, New York Jets

My sleeper tight end pick of the season is starting to get a little more camp buzz which makes me nervous that his ADP could start to climb a little. Head coach Aaron Glenn was heaping on the praise with regard to Taylor’s blocking and he’s already looking like a reliable go-to option for Justin Fields. When it comes to fantasy tight ends, it’s all about opportunity and if the coaches are confident in all aspects of his game, the snap-share will be huge. The Jets also lack wide receiver depth which could put Taylor as the No. 2 receiving target. The high-ankle sprain is a bummer for sure and will keep him on the sidelines for much of August, but I am still a big believer and continue to draft him late.

Elijah Arroyo, Seattle Seahawks

Maybe you were listening to SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio the moment I learned the Seahawks cut Noah Fant? It was glorious. I was so giddy I hate to throw to a commercial break just to contain myself. It’s not that Klint Kubiak overloads the tight end with targets, but Arroyo could be third on the targets list behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp who has a lengthy injury history. The coaches have raved about both his blocking and his route-running and wouldn’t it just be the Sam Darnold thing – to lean on his tight end. Where he’s going, ADP-wise? Come on. It’s a steal.

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