Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season signals the final week of the regular season in a few different aspects. Week 17 means the fantasy football championships for many of your season-long leagues. For DFS, this is the last legitimate week before we run into several narratives in Week 18 such as certain start players being rested ahead of the playoffs, younger players getting more run, bad teams trying to secure an additional loss to maintain their draft order, players fighting to get their incentive bonuses, etc. 

Fortunately for our NFL DFS contests this Sunday, we have a heavy 13-game main slate with 26 teams to choose from. For over a month we’ve had too many 10-game slates and even last week’s nine-game slate was an ugly one as well. We are missing out on some good defenses for this slate as the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, and Dallas Cowboys will have had the luxury of primetime match-ups prior to Sunday. 

But be sure to consult the NFL DFS Projections and Vegas Odds when picking and choosing your defenses for this slate. Here are the top NFL DFS D/ST’s on DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 17!

 

Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!

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NFL DFS D/ST Top Tier Picks

San Francisco 49ers

There are certainly some “trap” game elements to the 49ers this week. They’re coming off a loss on Monday night so it’s already a short week of prep for them and they have to travel cross-country for this game. Vegas naturally loves San Francisco in this spot. Despite the high total (49.5 points), the 49ers are favored by 13 points, so the Commanders have an implied team total of about 18 points, which is still moderate. Washington will also be making a change at quarterback, and this could be troubling for San Francisco’s upside for a couple of reasons. In a small sample size this year, we haven’t seen Brissett take too many sacks nor has he turned the ball over. 

That’s why we loved Sam Howell when he started for the Commanders. Brissett can be more of a game manager and his lack of risky taking could be troubling for San Francisco. While I don’t pay up for D/ST’s, and likely won’t play the 49ers, they offer a good floor for Cash games, but we can save salary and chase upside at this position elsewhere.

Update: Jacoby Brissett is now Questionable with a hamstring injury so we'll monitor that injury leading up to roster lock on Sunday. If Sam Howell gets the start for Washington, that does raise the ceiling for San Francisco a bit.

Buffalo Bills

I’m sort of beyond fading the Bills D/ST at this point. I don’t love the cost, but there is plenty of love about the match-up. Despite the injuries to this defense, they’ve played well with the pieces they have. Now the concern is that Easton Stick was able to keep the Los Angeles Chargers competitive against the Bills defense and Bailey Zappe could certainly do the same. 40.5 points isn’t the lowest implied total on the slate, but the Bills are favored by 13 points. Same spread as the 49ers, but a lower implied total may naturally draw more people to Buffalo on Sunday.

The Patriots have an implied team total of just under 14 points, compared to the Compared who are projected for a little more. To go along with the low total, weather could come into play in this game as well. Temperatures will be under 40 degrees with a mixture of rain and snow potentially coming into play later in the game. Winds won’t be too bad, but we could see a sluggish game and it’s one the Patriots need to lose if they want to maintain their top-five draft pick status in the 2024 NFL Draft.

NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Tier Picks

Chicago Bears

I’ll go right back to Chicago in this match-up. It’s the holiday season so schedules are impacted for all teams. But the Bears get back-to-back games at home, so it’s basically a normal week for them. They returned just three fantasy points last week, but let’s put it under a microscope. They only allowed Arizona to collect 306 yards of offense and 16 points. The Bears were only able to get two sacks and no turnovers. The lack of turnovers definitely hurt them. But the Atlanta Falcons come to town and we have a low implied total of 38 points and the Bears are favored by a field goal. 

Taylor Heinicke likely gets another start at quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons, but he is dealing with an ankle injury and he was limited in practice on Wednesday. His ceiling isn’t high and he does have accuracy issues. Temperatures will be right around freezing and the Falcons won’t have the luxury of playing in a controlled environment with wind gusts up to 20 mph.

Las Vegas Raiders

I don’t want to chase the points too much here, but the Raider's defense has played some inspiring football the last few weeks. Since Antonio Pierce took over as the interim head coach, the Raiders D/ST has returned at least eight fantasy points in six of seven games. The pass rush is clicking and they’re forcing more turnovers. The one thing we can’t chase are the four defensive/special teams touchdowns they’ve scored in their last two games. We can’t predict those.

What concerns me about the Raiders being a “trap” D/ST this week is that they’ve had to travel on a short week once again after playing in Kansas City on Monday. They could still be riding high after that victory. And this game is in a controlled environment which does benefit Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis Colts. If Michael Pittman clears concussion protocol then I may downgrade the Raiders a little bit, because this game has some sneaky shootout potential.

NFL DFS D/ST Value Picks

Baltimore Ravens

For what it’s worth, I am interested in the Miami Dolphins on the other side as well because both are incredibly affordable on DraftKings. But they’re both priced in the mid-tier on FanDuel. This game opened with the third-highest implied total on the main slate, but has been bet down a little bit. When these two teams met last year, they combined for 80 points. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns. Lamar Jackson threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 119 yards and another score. That game was also played in the middle of September, whereas this match-up will be played on New Year’s Eve. Both defenses are better than they were last year and the Ravens are first in the league in sacks (54) while the Dolphins are second (52). 

The Ravens will be at home and are coming off a dominant performance on Christmas night where they forced five interceptions and four sacks against the San Francisco 49ers. They’ve returned double-digit fantasy points in over half of their games this year. We aren’t going here in Cash games because of the shootout potential, but the Dolphins have some injuries worth monitoring on the offensive side, and perhaps they ride their high of beating the Dallas Cowboys just a little too long heading into this game.

New England Patriots

Not the greatest punt play by any means especially with the Bills having played last Saturday and getting an extra day of rest. But the Patriots are the second-cheapest D/ST on DraftKings and third-cheapest on FanDuel. At just $2,300 on DraftKings, I’m hoping they can simply return five fantasy points at worst. In 15 games this year, they’ve returned less than five fantasy points just three times. So for Cash games, this is probably the cheapest group I’d consider. 

The Patriots have been one of the most difficult teams to run on having allowed just 84.8 rushing yards per game, which could limit James Cook’s upside. In their last six games, the Patriots defense has allowed a total of 94 points to be scored and only one team, the Kansas City Chiefs, has put up over 300 yards of offense. New England has been getting more pressure on the quarterback lately as they sacked Russell Wilson five times on Christmas Eve and they get to go against Josh Allen, whose turnovers are well documented.

A big concern is this new-look Joe Brady offense that has hit the right notes since the Bills have been more productive. But again, we’re punting to the Patriots mostly for the savings and hoping for any semblance of production.

NFL DFS D/ST Fade

Philadelphia Eagles

I don’t know what happened with the Eagles defense from a year ago. But they’re awful right now. All the talent and money they’ve allocated, along with drafting several Georgia Bulldogs, yet they can’t keep it together and it could cost them in the playoffs. Over their last six games, they have just 10 sacks and five takeaways, and one of those interceptions came on the last play, a Hail Mary, against the New York Giants on Christmas Day. Jonathan Gannon makes his return to Philadelphia and he probably knows the defensive personnel better than most opposing coaches.

Do I expect Arizona to win? No, but the New York Giants were competitive last week and the Eagles do have to operate on a short week. Tyrod Taylor managed to throw for 133 yards, rush for 21 more, and throw for a touchdown in just one half against the Eagles Monday night. I imagine Kyler Murray can have a productive day since the Eagles struggled with stopping even the Giants on third down.