It’s hard to believe we have already made it to Week 14 when it doesn’t seem like that long ago we were clamoring over the value made available to us in Week 1 as we all crammed Tyreek Hill into our lineups for that game against the Los Angeles Chargers. But here we are in December. We have just the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders on bye with 11 games on Sunday’s main slate. We’ve seen some bad football across the board this year and the injuries at the quarterback position continue to pile up. We have some very low implied totals and a couple games on the East coast could be slammed with harsh weather. We’ll pick our spots this week and without a clear forecast of the weather, we’ll definitely be looking for updates Sunday morning. For now, here are the D/ST’s I’m targeting for Sunday’s Week 14 NFL DFS main slate!
Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!
NFL DFS Top Tier Picks
This may surprise some of you. If you read this article every week you’ll know I don’t love spending up at D/ST and oftentimes I’ll completely lay off the most expensive team on the slate. But the East coast could be absolutely battered with poor weather this weekend. This game is certainly a candidate for heavy rain. Early forecasts call for a downpour with sustained winds ranging from 15-20mph and gusts up to 25mph. The Texans defense is certainly a group that’s trending well and could really make strides next year. But there’s been some drama over who will start at quarterback on Sunday for the New York Jets. Ultimately it will be Zach Wilson who has seven interceptions and nine fumbles in 10 games this year while completing just under 60% of his passes. And while the Jets could go with a ground heavy game plan, it’s worth noting that Breece Hall is dealing with an ankle injury, but he expects to play this weekend. He hasn’t been the most efficient runner of late, but he’s been doing fine for fantasy because of his involvement in the passing game. This game has one of the lowest implied totals on the slate at 33 points and the Texans are favored by 3.5 points. Come Sunday we could also consider the New York Jets as a cheaper option from this game if the weather is as bad as we think it could be. If that’s the case, we’ll update the “value” section with the Jets and Rams.
This game will be played in Cincinnati and while it doesn’t have weather concerns like in the Meadowlands and Baltimore, we could still see some rain pop up. But I’m mostly throwing the Colts into the article because they’ve been tremendous on the defensive side lately. They have at least four sacks in four straight games including back-to-back games with six. They have nine takeaways in that four-game stretch while returning double-digit fantasy points in each of those matchups as well. This recommendation is more of a GPP-only type play. There are enough games on this slate with lower implied totals and Jake Browning’s most recent performance on Monday Night Football could put some folks off Indianapolis. If we do have some weather elements for this game then we can once again look at the Colts after they made Howard’s Playbook last week. But I’m either spending up or down for another D/ST in Cash games.
NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Tier Picks
Baltimore has plenty going for them in this matchup. They are currently favored by a little over a touchdown and the implied total is around 40 points. That’s not the lowest on the slate by any means, but still worth targeting. Baltimore is also fresh off their bye week and they host the Rams who will be traveling across the country for this game and it’ll kick off during the 1:00pm ET window. On top of all those narratives that we love, the weather in this game will be horrendous. The worst of the rain may not come until after the game, but early forecasts still call for consistent rain throughout this matchup with sustained winds around 15-20mph and gusts up to 30mph. For that reason, I’m not ruling out pivoting to the Rams on the other side of the ball. Lamar Jackson has been dealing with an illness this week. But the Ravens will be the “fresher” team and they’re my preferred target.
The Browns are once again mis-priced on DraftKings and I understand there may be concerns playing this defense. The Browns defense has allowed 71 total points in their last three games with just four sacks and one takeaway in that span. Myles Garrett has been dealing with a shoulder issue but he did return to practice on Thursday. The Browns are at home, they’re three-point favorite, and the over/under is at just 32.5 points as of Thursday night. With Trevor Lawrence highly unlikely to play, and the Jags also without Christian Kirk, the Browns shape up to be a trendy play in the mid-range.
NFL DFS D/ST Value Pick
The Bears defense has been rounding into form and for a consistent stretch they’ve been pretty tough to run on. Chicago has allowed opposing running backs to rush for over 100 yards just one time since Week 4 but oddly enough that team was the Detroit Lions. They allowed 29 points in that matchup but they did have four takeaways. In fact, the Bears went into their bye week with back-to-back performances with four takeaways. It’s not so much the “road” matchup that leads me to believe Jared Goff could have a tough game. It’s the fact that it’s not in a controlled environment. There are plenty of games with weather concerns this weekend. Chicago likely stays dry, but winds will consistently range from 10-15mph with gusts up to 20mph and it’ll be around 40 degrees. At $2,400 on DraftKings they are the best punt option on the slate.
NFL DFS D/ST Fade
The Bears are coming off their bye week and they’re at home where they’re only three-point underdogs. The Lions only average about two sacks per game and a little over one takeaway per game. On the road they’re allowing about five more points per game and 50 more yards per game than at home. They’re allowing an average of 28.75 points per game over their last four contests including 373.5 yards per game in that span. The Bears have shown they can keep pace with other teams and they just put up 26 points on the Lions D/ST a few weeks ago. The Lions just aren’t quite shaping up to dominate this matchup on the defensive side of the ball.