If you read up on the NFL DFS D/ST Coach for Week 1, you would’ve known that I was going heavy on the Miami Dolphins and they paid off handsomely at their cheap price tag. Week 1 was great and was a great reminder for me (and hopefully you) that this is a position of great variance and we will once again see that in Week 2. As we turn our attention to this week it’s important to get an early look at our NFL Vegas Odds and NFL DFS Projections so you can get an early look at which games and teams we should be targeting in DFS. And don’t hesitate to ask questions in the NFL DFS Discord Channel about certain plays or strategies to help you become a better DFS player. Let’s dive into this week’s NFL DFS picks for the D/ST position.
NFL DFS D/ST Top Plays for Week 2
Los Angeles Rams
I normally avoid paying up for the most expensive D/ST most weeks. But I do believe the Rams are a bit underpriced on DraftKings at $4,000. On FanDuel, they’re the fifth-most expensive team so you can easily pay up at $4,600 over there. The Rams had a very difficult matchup in Week 1 against Buffalo. They allowed 31 points and over 400 yards of offense. But despite all that, they still provided nine points in DFS. They can force enough turnovers and sacks to always be a decent play and this week they host the Falcons who travel across country for a very difficult matchup. The Falcons showed some creativity on offense last week, but they don’t have the weapons the Bills have to give the Rams fits. At the end of the day I can imagine the Rams defensive line having their way and getting plenty of pressure on Marcus Mariota. The Rams opened as 13.5-points favorites which has been bet down to 10.5-point favorites. I’m not entirely surprised but still being favored by over ten points in the NFL is a compliment. The over/under is right around 47 points currently, which is high, but the Rams are still heavily favored. In Cash games, I’m still paying down at this position, but the Rams have a path to 3X value in this matchup and if they log a defensive or special teams touchdown then they could be optimal in GPP’s.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers didn’t do much last week in the elements in Chicago. Fortunately, they now host the Seahawks who are coming off an emotional win on Monday. But keep in mind this is a short-week turnaround for Seattle. They have one less day to prep for the 49ers and they may still be a bit hungover from Monday’s win. The 49ers are the second-most expensive D/ST on both DraftKings and FanDuel and similar to the Rams on DK, there’s an argument to be made about this team being underpriced. San Francisco couldn’t impose their will last week in Chicago due to the weather and field conditions. It was a bit of an embarrassing loss and they want to right the ship. Unfortunately, the Seahawks are lined up to be their victim. The over/under is about 42.5 points and the 49ers are favored by about ten points. That’s roughly an implied total of 16-17 points for Seattle. The 49ers can’t afford to lose this game and go to 0-2 with a Week 4 matchup against the Rams looming. They’ll want to show up and enforce their defensive will against Geno Smith and the Seahawks. I won’t write the Cleveland Browns up in full for this week, but I will acknowledge that they’re a great pivot off both the Rams and 49ers in their matchup against the Jets. It’s a home game against a shaky offensive line and Joe Flacco will be under center for the Jets again. It could be a great opportunity for the Browns to 2-0 with a dominant defensive effort.
NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Price Plays for Week 2
he Steelers put up an impressive defensive showcase against the Bengals in Week 1. They forced five turnovers and collected seven sacks and now they get the Patriots coming to town who are fresh off a terrible game against the Dolphins. The Patriots totaled just 271 yards of offense last week and turned the ball over three times. The offensive line continues to be a problem and another tough matchup in a hostile environment is not exactly what the Patriots need. The over/under has been bet down to a paltry 40.5 points and the Pats are favored by about a point, but it’s almost a pick ‘em. I don’t expect Bill Belichick to come into the game and give the Steelers his belly and accept defeat. Last week’s performance was one of the worst in the Belichick era. But we still could see the offense struggle against a respectful defense and the offensive line is still a liability for New England. On the other side of the ball, I think the New England Patriots are an okay option as a pivot. The over/under is still low and the defense for New England held Miami to just 307 yards of offense and 14 points.
New Orleans Saints
I’m including the Saints as a mid-price team because that’s about where they fall on FanDuel, but make no mistake about it, they could easily qualify as a value play on DraftKings. I will likely only roll them out in GPP’s because they’re going against the Bucs and their weapons on offense are still among the best in the league. However, the Saints went 2-0 against the Bucs last year. In the first game, the Saints sacked Tom Brady three times and forced a trio of turnovers, including a pick six to seal the game. In chapter two of this matchup, Brady was sacked four times and the Saints forced a pair of turnovers in a shutout effort. So in two games the Saints allowed just 27 total points, collected seven sacks, and forced five turnovers. That’s not too shabby against a Super Bowl caliber offense. The over/under opened at 46.5 but it’s been bet down to 44.5 while the Saints are still slight underdogs. I’m still a believer this is a good defense that can cause fits for the Bucs especially if Chris Godwin is a no-go. The Bucs are also already pretty beat up. I’d prefer them in GPP’s only because there’s a cheaper defense better suited for Cash games, but this is a DFS target with a high ceiling for GPP’s.
NFL DFS D/ST Value Plays for Week 2
From a betting perspective this is exactly the matchup we want to see and I’m sure the DraftKings’ pricing was set prior to knowing the severity of Dak Prescott’s thumb injury. Alas, the Bengals are the pay-down D/ST to target this week, especially in Cash games. This game been bet down to a 43.5-point total and the Bengals are favored by over a touchdown. The absence of Prescott will have everyone flocking to the Bengals, especially in Cash games. As the third-cheapest D/ST on the board on DraftKings, that makes sense. Cooper Rush will run the offense and in one start last year he did throw for over 300 yards and a couple scores. But this might be a different story. The offensive line is a little beat up and they allowed four sacks to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Now the Bengals come to town and they’re hungry for a win after an embarrassing loss to the Steelers.
New York Jets
We won’t see many people look to the Jets this week, at least on DraftKings because they’re the same price as the Bengals at $2,200. But we do need some value options on the other platforms. The Jets are in play. The over/under is at 40.5 points as of Tuesday night but the Jets are about six-point underdogs. The Jets had a decent showing on Sunday against Baltimore. They held the Ravens to under 300 yards of offense, including just 63 rushing yards. The Browns fared pretty well against the Panthers, but Jacoby Brissett barely completed over 50% of his pass attempts. If the Jets can have a repeat performance of stuffing the run, then they should be able to keep the Browns in check.
NFL DFS D/ST Fades for Week 2
I could easily sit here and say to fade the Cowboys, the Commanders, the Falcons, etc. I feel like I’d be doing you, the FAmily, a disservice by taking the easy path. So I’ll throw out an expensive D/ST that I won’t be considering this week. The Ravens are favored by roughly a field goal over the Dolphins and the over/under is right around 44 points. That’s not awful, but there are playmakers on both sides of the ball. We saw the Miami Dolphins D/ST return almost 7X value last week against New England. I do think the Dolphins have some DFS appeal because they’re so cheap, and overall, they still boast a very good defense. But I expect this game to feature more offense than Vegas is expecting. The Ravens got off to a sluggish start against the Jets last week and turned everything up later in the game to take away the win. But this Miami offense is going to get creative. Chase Edmonds could very well be a solid RB2 option in fantasy and it looks like he’s in line for about four or five catches per game. And we saw Tyreek Hill utilized plenty last week against New England’s respectable defense. If you’re going to pay up for a D/ST in Baltimore’s range, there are safer options like the Rams, 49ers, and Browns. Or you could easily pay down and find a value play that allows you to utilize your salary elsewhere. I’ll be avoiding Charm City for at least Week 2 and find a group with more upside.
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