NFL DFS Divisional Round D/ST Coach: Texans, Seahawks, Broncos

We are down to just eight teams remaining in the NFL Playoffs as we head into the Divisional Round with two games on Saturday and two games on Sunday. All four games will be played outside in environments inviting some cold weather. Some matchups are more advantageous than others, and nailing the D/ST that breaks the slate is crucial, as we saw last week with two late D/ST touchdowns on Monday Night Football. Let’s regroup and get ready for another exciting weekend of NFL Playoff action. Here is the NFL DFS Divisional Round D/ST Coach for your contests on DraftKings and FanDuel!

NFL DFS Divisional Round D/ST Coach for FanDuel & DraftKings Fantasy

With just four games on tap, you can probably guess that I’m about to tell you no D/ST is out of consideration. And it’s more true than most weeks. It’s a smaller player pool, and this is always the last piece to the puzzle for your NFL DFS lineups. If you have a great lineup of offensive players and you’re forced to play the cheapest D/ST on DraftKings and FanDuel, then so be it. Regardless of the correlation, you can lock that lineup in if you don’t want to compromise the offensive integrity of the roster.

The game in New England is likely to draw significant ownership because the implied total is sitting at 40.5 points as of Friday morning. The other remaining three games see their totals ranging from 44.5 to 48.5 points. We will see some horrifically cold temperatures in Chicago on Sunday night, and that game surprisingly has the highest total on the board.

While no D/ST is off the table for this weekend, let’s dig into my favorite targets and matchups in the final NFL DFS D/ST Coach of the season!

NFL DFS D/ST Top Tier Picks for the Divisional Round

New England Patriots – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $4,700

Houston Texans – DraftKings $3,400 | FanDuel: $4,400

This Sunday afternoon matchup has the lowest implied total of the four matchups this weekend. The Patriots are only favored by a field goal, but the Texans have an implied team total just under 19 points. It also appears to be a strong possibility that Houston won’t have Nico Collins available for this game. But treat carefully, earlier this season, the Texans didn’t have Nico Collins available in Week 8 against the San Francisco 49ers. In that game, C.J. Stroud still completed over 70% of his pass attempts for 300+ yards and a pair of touchdowns.

But even with Collins, the Texans still have a rather inconsistent offense. Even last week’s win against the Pittsburgh Steelers largely came on the backs of their defensive effort in the fourth quarter. The Patriots' defense isn’t elite, but they’re getting healthy, and they just limited the Los Angeles Chargers to a field goal in Foxborough last week. The cold weather will again be on New England’s side on Sunday with temps dipping into the low 30’s, so it’s possible the Pats can win another low-scoring playoff matchup at home.

But on the other side of the ball, we cannot forget about the Houston Texans. They have arguably the best defense in the NFL. The Texans' D/ST was once again the optimal option last week after they held Pittsburgh to just six points, and they scored a pair of D/ST touchdowns in the fourth quarter. This unit has now scored four times in their last four games. They now draw the worst offensive line remaining in the playoffs, but they just have to endure the colder elements as the underdog in this matchup.

Of the remaining teams left in the playoffs, the Texans lead the group in defensive EPA per dropback at -0.63, but the Patriots are second at -0.20, so both these teams are firmly in play if you can afford them this weekend.

NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Tier Pick for the Divisional Round

Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $4,200

For what it’s worth, if you absolutely need to punt down to the San Francisco 49ers D/ST in this matchup, then do what you have to. They’re affordable on both sides, and despite the defensive injuries they’ve racked up in recent weeks, they’re only $2,200 on DraftKings, and they’re paying off the price tag with a modest six-or-seven-point return.

But I do prefer the home team in this matchup. The Seattle Seahawks are seven-point favorites as of Friday morning. They’re the biggest favorite on the slate, and they have the luxury of playing at home. Over Seattle’s last 10 games during the regular season, only three quarterbacks threw for more than 200 yards on them, and only one threw for over 240 yards, and that was Matthew Stafford in that memorable Week 16 matchup on Thursday Night Football.

The Seahawks don’t have the most proactive pass rush. They ranked 25^th in blitz rate (21.7%), but they were seventh in pass rush win rate (41%). When healthy, they rely on the success of their defensive backs. The grouping of Julian Love, Devon Witherspoon, Coby Bryant, and Nick Emmanwori forms one of the most dangerous secondaries in the NFL.

The 49ers also lost George Kittle last week, and we know Trent Williams is playing through a hamstring injury. Yes, the concept of keeping Christian McCaffrey in check seems like a tall task, but when these two teams played for the division title in Week 18, CMC was held to just 23 rushing yards (on eight carries) and 34 receiving yards (on six receptions).

NFL Divisional Round DFS D/ST Value Picks

Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $2,800

I’ll preface this by saying that the Broncos are not a value on FanDuel. They’re the second-most expensive D/ST option on FD, while they are the fifth-most expensive on DraftKings, where they’re under $3,000. If you need a punt on FanDuel, then look to the Buffalo Bills. As I said earlier, no team is off the table on a four-game slate.

But on the other side of the ball, it’s going to be hard to pass up this Broncos D/ST at home. It’s January, and this game will be at elevation, so even if it doesn’t snow or the temps aren’t incredibly frigid, the Broncos have the advantage in the thinner air.

The Broncos are slight favorites, and this game has the second-highest implied total at 45.5 points, but the Broncos have fresh legs, and the Buffalo Bills lost two receivers (Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers) ahead of this matchup. During the regular season, the Broncos touted an elite pass rush that ranked third in pass rush win rate (45%), third in blitz rate (32.0%), first in sack rate (9.8%), and third in pressure rate (36.5%).

Nik Bonitto is also fresh off an All-Pro snub, and I’m sure he’ll bring his best performance after a week off. This team also has an elite shutdown defensive back in Pat Surtain. The Buffalo Bills will need Josh Allen to be Superman in this matchup if they want to win, but the Broncos may be a good GPP leverage play, assuming the other three D/ST’s mentioned in this article draw more exposure from the field.