Super Bowl 60 First Touchdown Scorer: How To Narrow The Pool

The team that scores the first touchdown usually wins the Super Bowl. It makes sense in theory. But we also have the data to back it up. There have now been 59 Super Bowls, and the team to score the first touchdown has won 41 of them - that’s roughly 71% of the time. All week long, folks have been telling us that “points will be at a premium” in this matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, so this could very well fall within that 71%.

Our job today is to take a look at the odds for first touchdown scorer via BetMGM and give some thoughts on how to bet it. We’ll look at the favorites, and we’ll also look at some long shots. On top of that, we’ll also include some other statistics we’ve found regarding first touchdown scorers, the coin toss decisions, and how these bets might affect the overall flow of the game. If you are placing some parlays or filling out a card for fun, it’s important to know whether you might be betting against yourself or not based on the odds!

Super 60 First Touchdown Scorer Odds and Favorites

Here are the top odds and favorites for Super Bowl 60 first touchdown scorer via BetMGM. We love using BetMGM for these as they have a Second Chance promo where, if your player doesn’t score the first touchdown but they do score the second one, you get your stake back! Here are the top 15 favorites for first touchdown scorer.

Super 60 First Touchdown Scorer Narrowing The Pool

There are really two flavors of bet here. The players who legitimately have the best chances to score. And long shots with a realistic path where the juice is worth the squeeze. Now, not every game is going to have the second category. But this game does. Here’s how we look at it. 

Super Bowl 60 Favorites To Score An Anytime Touchdown

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks +375 - Zach Charbonnet had been a touchdown vulture all season. With him out of the picture due to a torn ACL, the full job belongs to Kenneth Walker. And he’s certainly taken advantage of that with four touchdowns over the last two games. Walker has the best odds for good reason, and he’s an especially good bet if Patriots linebacker Robert Spillane is out. He’s not only been their leading tackler, but he also wears the green dot and calls the plays on defense. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks +550 - The top options for the Seahawks couldn’t be more obvious. JSN leads the team in rezone targets (12), endzone targets (14), and endzone touchdowns (7). He’s their best player. 

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots +850 - We would consider Drake Maye here. But this shoulder injury has us wondering how much bruising he will do at the goal line, especially if they end up in a QB sneak type situation. I wouldn’t rule Maye out on a scramble or from distance, but Stevenson is the favorite for a reason.

Super Bowl 60 Best Long Shot Odds

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots +1400 - This one is our favorite value bet. It’s not a great matchup for volume as Julian Love and Nick Emmanwori are one of the league’s best safety pairings. But we just need Henry to sneak out for a score. Henry’s 22 redzone targets are quietly tied with JSN as the leaders in this game. Henry is also tied with Kayshon Boutte with 7 endzone targets to lead the Patriots.  

Seattle Defense/Special Teams +2200 - Plus, Rhamondre Stevenson may have curtailed his fumbling issues lately, but that doesn’t mean they can’t rear their ugly head. On top of that, we also get access to Seattle’s special teams, which have been among the best in the league. They traded for Rashid Shaheed for a reason, and he already has a return touchdown in this game. 

Super 60 First Touchdown Scorer And The Coin Toss

Based on info from Pro Football Reference, the Seahawks have deferred every single time they have won the coin toss this year. The Patriots did choose to receive once, against the Steelers in Week 3, but they went on to lose that game. The next seven times they won, including last week vs. the Broncos in the NFC Championship, they chose to defer. 

That leads me to believe that both teams are likely to defer this week if they do win the coin toss. Since the Seahawks have a perfect track record of deferring, while the Patriots did receive once, you could give a slight edge to Seahawks players if you want. But the trends suggest it will be more of a 50/50. Here are the coin toss results and choices by the two teams.

Super Bowl 60 First Touchdown And The Over/Under

There’s another interesting correlation that we should mention here - one that also makes sense in theory. Over the last fifteen years, there have been three instances where the team that won did not score the first touchdown. In all three of those games, the game total hit the over. Which makes sense - if there is enough scoring, that dilutes the importance of a singular touchdown. Often, these turn into shootouts where anyone can win. If you are filling out a full card for this game, make sure you factor that into your decision-making process. 

It’s also worth noting that, in two of those three games, the games went to overtime. That last time a team won without scoring the first touchdown, and the game hit the under, it was Super Bowl XLIV, played in 2010, when the Saints famously flipped the script at halftime with an onside kick. It’s worth noting that that was also the last time an NFC team won without scoring the first touchdown - the three most recent ones were all AFC teams. Here is what the last fifteen years look like in terms of who scored first, who won, if the underdog or favorite covered the spread, or if the over/under hit.