The NBA Cup is down it's final six teams and tonight, December 10th, we have the Western Conference quarter finals matchups between the Phoenix Suns and the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers. There aren't many pieces of news we're waiting for, but Devin Booker's status could be a seismic shift in how we view the slate. Let's start diving into the main slate breakdown below!

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership

NBA DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, December 10th

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Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 12/10

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Total: 226
  • Spread: OKC -14

Suns NBA DFS Breakdown

(25th in pace, 12th in DRtg)

UPDATE - Devin Booker has been ruled OUT

How do the Phoenix Suns stay competitive in this game, that's the question here. We're going to look at the Suns from two perspectives; with and without Devin Booker. I have much more interest in this team if Booker sits if we're being honest here.

Without Devin Booker (and Jalen Green);

With Devin Booker in;

Thunder NBA DFS Breakdown

(15th in pace, 1st in DRtg)

If you're just waking up and finding out about the NBA for the first time this year, the Oklahoma City Thunder are on track to make history, or least contend for the best record of all time. They're 23-1 and their one loss was after leading by 20 points at one point against the Portland Trail Blazers. The problem is the team is healthier than it's been for a while and they're 14-point favorites, which means it's possible none of their starters are playing deep (or at all) in the fourth quarter.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is off of the injury report and is the clear pivot off of Luka Doncic. Doncic is nearly 5x SGA's ownership and is $1.4K more as well. This year, without Isaiah Hartenstein and Isaiah Joe, SGA has a 33.9% USG and averages 1.5 FP/min. Ajay Mitchell's role is slightly diminished and he's priced too high with nearly everyone back.

The Thunder's wing room is a mess, but we know Luguentz Dort will start and in a competitive game, he'll play 30 minutes. It's possible Alex Caruso enters the starting lineup in the second half of the game if it's close instead of the double-big. Cason Wallace is there, too, but he's so low floor and he's the most expensive of the three. I'd rank them: Dort, Caruso, Wallace.

He had a 35% USG without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but Jalen Williams has started playing really well and has found his rhythm. With SGA this year, Williams has a 24% USG and averaged 1.15 FP/min and is very solid as a mid-tier option. Aaron Wiggins and Kenrich Williams are nothing more than last pieces in or if you're playing a blowout options.

The Thunder likely start both Chet Holmgren and Jayliin Williams alongside one another, but there's no guarantee that Williams starts the second half in a close game. I like Holmgren as he's been a 25% USG and 1.3 FP/min player without iHart and Isaiah Joe. JWill hasn't been as good of a fantasy asset this year as he was last year, but he's a .9 player this year and has mid-20s minute upside.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers

  • Total: 239
  • Spread: LAL -7

Spurs NBA DFS Breakdown

(16th in pace, 16th in DRtg)

I think that the Spurs look better than anyone else on the board, but nailing the correct pieces is the tough part because there are a LOT of different directions they can go to. They played 11 (!!) guys last game and all 11 played in the first quarter and only two (De'Aaron Fox & Harrison Barnes) topped 30 minutes. It's very balanced as they're getting healthier.

In the guard room, De'Aaron Fox has the highest ceiling but it's going to be tough to get there at his price and if he's going to just sit in the low-30s for minutes. That said, Fox has a team-leading 31.7% USG and 1.3 FP/min without Victor Wembanyama this year. I'm basically just plugging and playing Dylan Harper at this point, especially as his minutes are trending upwards. He's posted a 25.7% USG or better in five straight games, twice topping 30%. In Stephon Castle's return, he had a 36.4% USG (!!!) and had a 30.75 DKP across 23 minutes. His minutes should continue to rise and if it's anywhere near 30, he's in play if he's going to be THIS player.

The wing room is very hot-hand oriented, especially not that Castle and Harper are back. Devin Vassell started last game, but played 27 minutes (second-fewest of the year) and didn't close the game. He has a ceiling because he can make shots, but if his ownership spikes it's a stay away. If it stays at the number it's at right now (around 30%), it's appealing as a last piece in. They moved Julian Champagnie back to the bench, but he played 29 minutes last game and has been playing a lot lately (28+ minutes in 4 straight) and has only topped 24.5 DKP in one of them. Keldon Johnson took the biggest hit for the Spurs with Castle back as he played just 17 minutes, which was a season-low. That said, Johnson has a much-higher minutes ceiling and if the Spurs are going hot-hand approach, Johnson could play himself into mid-to-high 20s minutes role. As well as Harrison Barnes is playing, it's not comfortable seeing his ownership. If he's not making shots, he will not hit value and that's basically what it comes down to.

The front court is a nightmare after Luke Kornet. Kornet will play high-20s minutes and not flash too high of a ceiling, but he's safe. But what happens behind him is anyone's guess. It could be Jeremy Sochan (5 mins last game) but it could be Kelly Olynyk (15 mins last game). It's likely a stay away for me unless it's Kornet.

Lakers NBA DFS Breakdown

(22nd in pace, 21st in DRtg)

The Lakers are really tough to want pieces from outside of their big three. They're healthier than they've been in some time but at the end of the day, the trio of Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James are just simply going to dominate the ball. Rui Hachimura and Deandre Ayton are going to round out their lineup and both are going to play into the 30s for minutes. I like Hachimura's price on a slate we're lacking value in.

What else is there to like? I mean, the rest of the rotation will be Gabe Vincent, Jake LaRavia, Marcus Smart, and Jaxson Hayes. I don't love any of them, but maybe Smart is ultimately the guy they extend the most because of his defensive ball pressure. Not confident in that, however. It's hard to want to play anyone outside of their starting five.

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

High

Mid

Value