The NBA regular season is in full swing on Thursday, October 23rd with a two-game NBA DFS main slate as the reigning NBA champion, Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Indiana Pacers in a finals rematch while the Golden State Warriors host the Denver Nuggets. There are already injury concerns for some teams as the Thunder are really banged up with Jalen Williams, Isaiah Joe, and Alex Caruso out and Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace are questionable.

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership

NBA DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, October 23rd

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Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 10/23

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers

  • Total: 232
  • Spread: OKC -7.5

Thunder NBA DFS Breakdown

UPDATE - Cason Wallace has been ruled OUT. Luguentz Dort has been ruled IN.

The Thunder come into their second game of the year very banged up and could potentially be without five rotation pieces. Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, and Isaiah Joe are already out and Cason Wallace and Luguentz Dort are questionable, so if they sit too, this team could have a bunch of guys playing that didn't play a lot in the opener.

Someone who isn't on the injury report is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA, since last season without Williams, Joe, and Caruso off the floor, has averaged a 37.3% USG and 1.6 FP/min. Ajay Mitchell looked fantastic in his debut and should see his minutes tick up from 15 with Caruso out and they'll be likely into the 20's if Wallace and Dort sit, too.

If Cason Wallace is active, he'll start and play a boatload of minutes as well. He's solid everywhere and if I had preference between he and Luguentz Dort, I'd choose Wallace. You COULD play both. That's an option too. Aaron Wiggins played 21 minutes off the bench which was the second most behind Alex Caruso and Caruso isn't available. We could see Wiggins extended well into the 20's here.

We could see one of Brooks Barnhizer, Chris Youngblood, and Ousmane Dieng could be extended if they're even more short-handed than they are right now.

If you land on Chet Holmgren and/or Isaiah Hartenstein, that's definitely solid. They're both very solid on a FP/min standpoint. Jaylin Williams has his moments, but he has a VERY low floor.

Pacers NBA DFS Breakdown

The Pacers are going to be a fascinating team this year as they've lost Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner to the Milwaukee Bucks. So how does this team look and stack up in this matchup?

Andrew Nembhard enters the year as the starting point-guard and is going to have the ball in his hands a LOT, especially with T.J. McConnell sidelined. Last year, without Haliburton, McConnell, and Turner, Nembhard had a 23.7% USG and averaged .95 DKP/min and .94 FDP/min.

On the wings, we'll see Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith in the starting lineup and it's finally Mathurin's time to shine. Without the three guys above, Mathurin averaged 1.1 FP/min and a team-high 30.6% USG across 143 minutes. He's one of my top overall plays because the role he's going to have this year is completely different than it's been in years past. Nesmith isn't a high usage player, but can really get it going from three and light the world on fire. Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy could be extended.

It was a small sample without Haliburton, Turner, and McConnell last year, but Pascal Siakam averaged over 1.3 FP/min on both DK and FD (68 minutes.) It was only a 23.5% USG, but that should tick up this year. After Siakam, there is some solid depth pieces that could play a decent amount of minutes in Obi Toppin and Jarace Walker. Toppin is more likely to be extended than Walker, however, because he might spend some time as the small-ball center.

Speaking of center, this center rotation is going to be a mess. Isaiah Jackson started every preseason game for Indiana and he's likely opening the game, but the minutes and fouls are always the issue. The fantasy scoring is not, so if he can stay out of foul trouble, he should have no problem being at 1 FP/min or greater. The rest of their center room includes Jay Huff, James Wiseman, and Tony Bradley. I assume Jay Huff operates as the backup, but I have no idea how many minutes that entails and if they go three deep in their center room.

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors

  • Total: 234
  • Spread: GSW -2

Nuggets NBA DFS Breakdown

A lot of people believe that if anyone is going to dethrone the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference, it's going to be the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets enter the year healthy and they're deeper than they've been over the past couple of seasons. The team is still going to revolve around their starting five and specifically Nikola Jokic.

Jamal Murray enters the year healthy for the first time in a while and we know, when healthy, he's an excellent player. He had a 24.2% USG and 1.04 FDP/min and 1.06 DKP/min last year. We're going to see Bruce Brown operate with the ball a lot and it's possible Jalen Pickett plays a little bit.

Christian Braun just got the bag and traded for Cameron Johnson who are both going to start on the wing for them. We know how well Braun plays off Nikola Jokic and we're going to see Johnson slide right into the Michael Porter role. Tim Hardaway is the primary wing option off the bench, but has an incredibly low floor, especially over 4K on DK.

Aaron Gordon's price is fantastic. He was a .9 FP/min player on both DK and FD last year without Russell Westbrook around. Peyton Watson is a mid-to-high teens minutes player for Denver.

Nikola Jokic is good. He's great. He's the best. He's the top play. Denver could explore their double-big lineups with Jokic and Jonas Valanciunas like they did in the preseason.

Warriors NBA DFS Breakdown

The Warriors did play 11 guys on opening night, but the starters played a lot more minutes than anyone could have anticipated. All five starters played 28-plus minutes and only two guys off the bench touched 20.

Stephen Curry played 32 on opening night and wasn't great overall and is likely going to see some positive regression in the peripheral categories. Alongside him, Brandin Podziemski will start but is far too expensive for me on DK. Maybe because of it his ownership will be low and you can roster him. Buddy Hield was the guy who played the most off the bench (22 mins) and his price came down from game number one.

The rest of the guard rotation likely includes Will Richard and Gary Payton. They're both punt plays I'd only look at in MME.

It was a wonderful sight to see how good Jimmy Butler was and he dominated offensively, especially when you note he was 16-16 from the FT line. He played a team-high 35 minutes and there's no reason to think that isn't his role when he's fully healthy. Butler has been a 1.13 FP/min player since joining the Warriors.

The best part of opening night was the Jonathan Kuminga role. Maybe not in USG (17%) but he was second in passes made and third in passes received. He played nearly 33 minutes and almost messed around with a triple-double. If he starts again, he's locked and loaded because those 11 shot attempts are only going to trend upwards. We know who Kuminga is.

Draymond Green played 28 minutes and despite being in some foul trouble, he also almost triple-doubled. He's a solid option at his price. Al Horford is going to come off the bench and play 20 minutes, which is seemingly going to be his role moving forward.

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

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