It is always exciting to see a NASCAR driver score their first career NASCAR Cup Series win. So far in 2026 we saw Carson Hocevar win at Talladega, Ty Gibbs win at Bristol, and last week Corey Heim at +9000 pre-race got his first Cup Series win at Naval Base Coronado. Heim will continue to appear in a part-time role the rest of the year before becoming a full-time driver for 23XI Racing in 2027.

This week kicks off the NASCAR In-Season Challenge at Sonoma Raceway. Be sure to fill out your picks because it’s free money if you can nail the bracket challenge. There are some high variance tracks along the way so don’t hesitate to take some risks!

We have all your coverage with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks and lineup building strategies on DraftKings and FanDuel as we get ready for the Toyota/Save Mart 350!

 

 

 

Sonoma Raceway

As NASCAR has made an effort to add road/street courses to the schedule in recent years, Sonoma Raceway is one of the few road courses that has always been on the schedule so we have a rather large sample size to work with for the latest NASCAR DFS picks.

Sonoma has seen a few different variations in its time. But Sunday’s race will have 110 laps around the 1.99-mile circuit that features some elevation changes in addition to 12-16 turns depending on how you define what a “turn” is at this track.

In contract to last week’s race, I’m not anticipating as many cautions. We had a new, and rather unique, layout a week ago for the inaugural Naval Base Coronado race. And that track did not have much “run off” so cautions were bound to be abundant, as they normally are on street courses.

Fortunately for Sunday’s race, Sonoma has plenty of areas for off-track cars to run and cautions should be few and far between. I say “should” because the last two races have seen a total of 14 cautions for 39 laps while the three races from 2021-2023 had just 14 cautions for 38 laps.

This is still a road course and the DFS routine remains the same and I’ll dig into that in the next section. Based on the trends table above we can see that each of the last five winners at Sonoma started inside the first four rows. And to that point, a whopping 85.7%(!) of the laps led in the last five races have come from drivers starting inside the top 10. And sure, we tend to downgrade dominator points at road courses, but it still emphasizes the upside of drivers that qualify well even if the negative position differential is a risk.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends with DFS Strategy

Based on the tables above it is clear that position differential tends to prevail at a course like Sonoma, especially when playing on FanDuel. Be mindful, FanDuel scores 0.1 points per lap completed and 0.1 points per lap led. There are only 11 “dominator” points available on FanDuel. And it doesn’t get much better on DraftKings where there are a total of 77 points available for laps led and fastest laps. And when we account for cautions laps, that number may be closer to 70 points.

But we have to target win equity. And Shane Van Gisbergen, while not on the pole, still possesses plenty of win juice. He won the O’Reilly Series race on Saturday with ease. And it’s very likely he leads a hefty chunk of laps on Saturday and wins despite starting P6.

Road courses are always so tricky. It’s easy as hell to “min cash” at these tracks as I shared late Saturday night in our NASCAR DFS Discord channel but it’s incredibly difficult to score a takedown at these tracks. The main primary dominator candidate is SVG but Gibbs, Hocevar, and Larson are in play as well. Getting drivers that can finish well without a late race error seems to be tricky. But we do have some great position differential options available to us for this race. Let’s take a look at our top NASCAR DFS picks for the Toyota/Save Mart 350!

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Toyota/Save Mart 350

 

NASCAR Toyota/Save Mart 350 Top Tier DFS Picks

Shane Van Gisbergen (Starting P6) – DraftKings: $14,000 | FanDuel: $14,500

The price tag will always be expensive when we come to road courses. But it is what it is. SVG carries win equity and he has a great chance to rack up the few dominator points that are available to us for this race. He started on the pole in this race a year ago and led 97 out of 110 laps. He also won the O’Reilly Series with ease on Saturday leading 66-of-79 laps.

He also had a poor result last week at Naval base Coronado (San Diego) after he was involved in a wreck that he may or may not have been responsible for. But regardless, he is the clear favorite to win this race.

Here is the one caveat we have to add with SVG. He will sacrifice dominator points to force the field to degrade their tires. He’s so good at forcing the field to keep up with him and use up their tires that he doesn’t always need to run the fastest lap. Even last week it was odd that SVG was getting passed at a street course, but it almost seemed by design up until his wreck. He could’ve easily managed and kept the lead, but he forced the field to run their best laps and use up the tires.

Tyler Reddick (Starting P11) – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $12,500

Reddick is a great road course driver and he can contend with the best of them. He won COTA earlier this year after all. But he starts outside the top 10 for this race so I’m downgrading his win odds just a bit. But alas, he’s finished top eight in each of the last two Sonoma races and he led 35 laps in this race two years ago.

Here’s where it gets tricky with Reddick being priced inside the top three on both DraftKings and FanDuel… He almost has to finish top three to be optimal if SVG wins this race. If SVG wins and is optimal, he’s likely leading close to half the laps. So at that point, with Reddick being so expensive, he has to finish inside the top three.

It becomes easier if SVG wrecks similar to last week. But can we really lean into that happening two consecutive weeks? Especially after SVG has proven dominance at this track in a small sample size? Reddick may be a better play in non-SVG lineup builds for our NASCAR DFS picks. But the rest of the player pool can be played alongside SVG with ease.

Connor Zilisch (Starting P17) – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

I get it. It’s continuously ugly with Connor Zilisch. But on road courses, he’s had speed. He was involved in the untimely wreck a week ago with SVG and Austin Hill, but Zilisch was leading that race at the time. He led eight laps a week ago with four fastest laps. And even though he finished 20th at Watkins Glen earlier this year, he stilled registered 13 fastest laps without leading a single lap.

The downside with Zilisch is that this is a horrific cold streak. He’s finished outside the top 25 in every points race since the Dover All-Star race. Are all the wrecks/poor finishes his fault? Not necessarily but it’s still quite alarming. But we know the car has speed on road courses. He led laps a week ago. He drove through the field multiple times at COTA. He had fastest laps at Watkins Glen. At a certain point, this all has to add up to a good finish, right?

Ty Gibbs (Starting P1) – DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $1,000

Gibbs won the pole for Sunday’s race and since he’s starting next to Carson Hocevar, this is the youngest front row to start a race in the NextGen era. Gibbs is a pretty good road course driver and he scored his first Xfinity/O’Reilly Series win at Daytona’s road course in his debut at that level.

Gibbs actually credits Austin Green with a lot of his road course experience as the two grew up racing each other and they’ve shared knowledge along the way. Green is a driver in the O’Reilly Series but also does very well on the road courses.

Now Gibbs is on the pole which eliminates him from our cash game lineups on Sunday. But SVG does start two rows back and if Gibbs can get out to a lead for stage one and still finish well then there’s a chance he lands in the optimal lineup. He was top five at both COTA and Watkins Glen after all so he’s definitely capable of hanging on to the track position.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chris Buescher (Starting P15) – DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $9,500

Buescher is a very strong road course driver. He’s a previous winner at Watkins Glen and he rattled off three straight top five finishes at Sonoma from 2022-2024. He finished as the runner-up to Daniel Suarez in the 2022 race and in the 2024 race he managed to lead 32 laps.

I am a little worried that RFK Racing may have missed the setup for this race. But as we’ve seen plenty over the last year-and-a-half, Buescher and Preece’s teams can make the car better as the race progresses. And Buescher’s pricing does feel somewhat soft for this race. A few things can go his way and he has a path to another top five result at Sonoma.

And if you aren’t sold on Buescher you can certainly pivot to Ryan Blaney in this range who offers a little more position differential and laid down some strong laps in practice.

William Byron (Starting P13) – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $9,000

Byron has not had a good season and if that gives you some pause about playing him on Sunday, then I suggest you pivot to Blaney who has been more consistent throughout the year. But Byron had good speed in practice and both driver and the team seemed very satisfied with the car. The qualifying effort seems to stem from just the group he was in similar to SVG.

Again, the results this year have been lackluster. But he is a previous road course winner at COTA (2024) and Watkins Glen (2023). Do I think he wins this particular race? No because without immediate track position it could be a struggle. But the price is down on Byron and I believe he can finish inside the top five with some fastest laps to boost the score.

Chase Elliott (Starting P18) – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,200

It is very surprising that Elliott is priced this low at a road course, but it’s been a few years since he’s won at this type of track. But at the end of the day, the starting spot and track history are too good to leave Elliott out of the driver pool.

Over his last eight races at Sonoma, his worst finish is 37th (2019) and that was because he blew an engine. But in the other seven races in this sample size, he finished top eight in all of them.

He finished seventh earlier this year at COTA and just like week he started P30 and finished 12th at Coronado. So the mid-range is loaded with good drivers in strong equipment that carry top five upside. Can they all finish inside the top five? That’s rather unlikely so we do need to manage exposure to everyone in this range.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Daniel Suarez (Starting P21) – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $6,800

Suarez is a former Sonoma winner back during that wonky 2022 season, the first of the NextGen car. But overall, he’s a decent road course driver and one with a little momentum. Obviously, he scored the crown jewel win at Charlotte about a month ago. But he also finished sixth at Michigan and registered back-to-back finished of 13th at Pocono and Coronado. In fact, he also finished 13th at Watkins Glen. So this P21 starting spot gives him some room to move up based on recent trends.

Additionally, his teammates at Spire Motorports (Carson Hocevar and Michael McDowell) also qualified very well and had speed in practice. So it stands to reason similar speed should be in Suarez’s car and maybe he just fudged the qualifying lap. And each of the last two years at Sonoma, Suarez has managed to finish 14th so from a value perspective he certainly has upside without requiring much of our salary for our NASCAR DFS picks.

Ryan Preece (Staring P19) – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $7,800

Preece rolls off P19 which is a familiar starting spot for him. But at the same time he is capable of moving up and finishing well. Last week he finished 11th at Coronado while he finished 14th at Watkins Glen last month. Preece also didn’t see much tire fall off in practice which does give me hope he can manage his tires well on Sunday.

Preece has finished 12th, 18th, and 13th in the last three races at Sonoma. But perhaps there’s some extra motivation for him ahead of this particular race. For the NASCAR In-Season Tournament, he’s going head-to-head against Shane Van Gisbergen and he can’t just bank on SVG having a bad race. He’ll certainly need to run his best race to beat him clean.

Bubba Wallace (Starting P26) – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $7,000

Bubba Wallace went for a ride during qualifying on Saturday and sustained heavy damage to the car. Bubba will be scored from P26 but I actually find it interesting the team isn’t going to a backup car, and instead will repair the damage to the primary car. So he will drop to the rear but overall being scored from P26 still gives him upside to move up and score well.

Bubba isn’t regarded as a road course specialist. For the longest time he acknowledged he hated this type of racing. But he has put forth the effort to improve and committed time in the simulator. He finished 11th at COTA and last week he was the runner-up at Coronado.

Sonoma has been a tougher track for Bubba. He’s only finished in the top 15 just once. But I think there are reasons for optimism because while he finished 26th in this race a year ago, he finished top five in stages one and two. So this does go back to the old argument with Bubba in that he needs to run a clean race but I do like that the team feels good about the state of the primary vehicle heading into Sunday’s race.

Cole Custer (Starting P27) – DraftKings: $5,300 | FanDuel: $3,500

Custer is as cheap as I’m willing to dive into the driver pool this week. And that’s incredibly helpful when SVG, Reddick, Zilisch, and a few others are so expensive. Custer is very cheap but he’s not a bad driver. He’s a former Xfinity Series Champion after all and he has won a race at the Cup Series level.

Custer was surprisingly able to lay down the third-fastest practice lap in the first group behind only SVG and William Byron. Custer isn’t a lock by any means, but he did finish 15th at Watkins Glen earlier this season and he started P27 in this race a year ago and finished 23rd. With a little variance this is the kind of play that can potentially finish top 20 and maybe even top 15. 

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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