Nashville Superspeedway needed to run very late last weekend and we had fireworks as the field took the green flag. Denny Hamlin jumped the initial start and immediately had to drop to the tail of the field. And yet, he somehow worked his way back up to the front and won the race for another weekend dominated by the Toyota camp.

The NASCAR Cup Series will head to Michigan International Speedway for the first race in June on the 2026 schedule. Can anyone contend with the Toyota camp heading to this two-mile high-speed track? The Fords have not looked very competitive and while the Chevy camp has a few wins this season, they’re still lacking the in-race dominance of Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing.

We have all your coverage with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top plays and lineup building strategies on DraftKings and FanDuel as we get ready for the FireKeepers Casino 400!

 

 

 

Michigan International Speedway

Michigan International Speedway plays host this weekend and this is a big, two-mile oval with plenty of lanes to work with. This is certainly a track position race. Having clean air and the ability to run up front late in the race can pay huge dividends. If you’re stuck in traffic you could have your hands full. We’ve seen plenty of short tracks and 1.5-mile intermediate tracks on the schedule. But Michigan’s size and chaos lend itself to some entertaining racing.

Overall this is a track that gets one race per year. And some of the NextGen races have had unique results. For example, William Byron dominated this race a year ago. He led nearly half the laps but with two laps to go he ran out of fuel and finished outside the top the top 25. The 2024 race had a weather delay after about 50 laps that needed to be finished the next day. And there was a massive wreck caused by Kyle Larson that involved nine other cars. And that race required overtime which saw Tyler Reddick edge out William Byron.

All this is to say that Michigan has provided some variance the last couple races. We only get 200 laps and for some reason, it’s been difficult to see longer green flag runs at this track. In the NextGen era, this race is averaging about 7.5 cautions per race for about 35-40 laps. That’s right, in some instances 20% of the race was run under caution.

It's hard to say if it’s due to making the cars as fast as possible and trimming them so much that they’re pushing the envelope between being fast and being reckless. But we also have to account for fuel management and overall track position strategy. The racing should certainly be enjoyable as the NextGen car has performed well on the larger ovals. But this is the kind of race where you don’t want to check your DFS lineups until the very end.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends with DFS Strategy

As we touched on in the previous section, the last few races at Michigan have seen a lot of late-race shenanigans that have impacted the optimal lineup. So much so that the front row looks like they don’t need to be played. But we have touched on the variance of the last few races. So while the starting spot charts are typically helpful most weeks, this week feels like they are a bit more misleading with regard to the drivers on the front row.

This race will only have 200 laps which gives us a maximum of 140 dominator points. And if we have about 35 laps run under caution, then we’re losing 15.75 fastest lap points which brings us to roughly 125 dominator points.

In four NextGen races we’ve seen just two drivers lead over 50 laps and only one driver has led 60+ laps and that was William Byron in last year’s race when he ran out of fuel. So for Sunday’s race, I’ll conscientiously build lineups with a maximum of two dominators. Trying to target three dominators may not pay off because you need all three to finish well and likely return 15+ dominator points. Historically, we’ve seen the dominator points be spread out at Michigan with the exception of Byron’s performance last year.

So this week does take a little legwork on the part of DFS builders. I’ll offer up my top plays below, but I’ll give you a tip. Most drivers hitting the optimal lineup at Michigan are scoring about 50-65 fantasy points on DraftKings. We have seen a few scores in the 70’s in the NextGen era but you aren’t going to get the gaudy 80-100-point efforts we’ve seen in some instances this year.

So when building your lineups, try to ask yourself what needs to happen for your top-and-mid-range plays to reach 50+ fantasy points. You should not apply the same expectations to your value plays. For those $5K drivers you should aim for 30+ points. Drivers that are $6K and maybe low $7K should have a path to 40+ points for you. You’ll likely be able to build successful NASCAR DFS lineups with strictly position differential plays. You will probably like some lineups playing a driver from the front row and then filling the build(s) out with PD plays. There will be a plethora of ways to attack this slate once the starting order presents itself to us.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: FireKeepers Casino 400

I capped the practice notes to just the 10-lap average. Only eight drivers logged a 15-lap run and just six registered a 20-lap run. I didn’t want those results impacting the practice-to-qualifying rankings, so I tried to be objective and keep this rather fair since a significant number of the field logged a 10-lap run at the very least.

 

NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 Top Tier DFS Picks

Denny Hamlin (Starting P1) – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

It seems inevitable that until he goes on a bad run, Denny Hamlin will likely be in play every single week. He’s just been so dominant over the last handful of months. Since his win at Vegas back in March, he has seven performances with 60+ fantasy points on DraftKings. And he’s coming off another impressive win last week where he started on the pole, but immediately dropped to the rear after starting too early to begin the race. And yet he still led 57 laps at Nashville and got his second win of the season.

Now we go to a track where the Toyotas have looked great in recent years. Moreover, this is a larger, high-speed intermediate. Hamlin won this race a year ago while not having the best car. But even then, the overall track history is still on his side as he’s finished sixth or better in seven of his last eight races at Michigan.

The dominator upside takes a slight hit this week only because we have fewer laps at our disposal, and that’ll be the case next weekend as well. But Hamlin is trending so well just based on the performances on the most comparable tracks we’ve seen this year.

Update Following Qualifying: I’ve made the decision to leave Hamlin in the Playbook. He won the pole, but he’ll drop to the rear following an unapproved adjustment on Saturday because the team had to fix some damage underneath the car. This is a huge knock to his DFS value. Granted, we did see something similar happen last week at Nashville when he was penalized very early and had to drop to the rear immediately. That was a bit different because there were more laps to work with so he could easily pay off the price tag if he managed to get back to the front, which he ultimately did. But Sunday’s race has less dominator points to work with so while I’m leaving him in our player pool, I’m acknowledging that his path to hitting the optimal lineup just became much more difficult.

Tyler Reddick (Starting P3) – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,000

If we’re going to a larger oval, then Reddick is back among our NASCAR DFS picks. I haven’t played a ton of Reddick lately due to the varying track types, but he’s returned 50+ fantasy points in five straight races while delivering 40+ laps led and 20+ fastest laps in each of the last three DFS slates.

Reddick does have a win here from two years ago but that marks his lone top 10 finish at Michigan in his Cup Series career (seven races). But we can’t deny ourselves the win equity as he has five wins on the year and could be far from done.

Denny Hamlin has looked better overall in this package this season and he has better track history to lean into. But Reddick has been a consistent source for DFS production, and he’ll have paths to 50+ points for the sixth straight week so long as he avoids a big wreck.

With Hamlin dropping to the rear, that gives Reddick a front row starting spot for Sunday’s race. It’s amazing how he keeps getting bailed out and helped into fruitful situations, but Hamlin’s penalty should bump Reddick’s ownership numbers.

Ryan Blaney (Starting P19) – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $10,500

This is a great price tag for Blaney on FanDuel and he’s certainly one of the few Ford drivers you play with a shred of confidence nowadays. Blaney displayed good short run speed and just based on the qualifying effort, we should expect him to move up. And as we’ve already mentioned earlier in the article, PD can play here. And keep in mind, 36% of the laps led over the last five races at Michigan have come from drivers starting outside the top 10. Blaney is certainly good enough to get up front later on. The big concern is how much track position could his pit crew cost him during pit stops?

Blaney is a previous winner at Michigan but that came prior to the NextGen car. But the starting spot is what we’re targeting because while he may not win on Sunday, he can drive the car into the top 10, and possibly the top five. From there he has a path to 50+ fantasy points which can put him in the optimal lineup.

Chase Briscoe (Starting P5) – DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $12,000

Briscoe is a contrarian dominator candidate for Sunday’s race. He is somebody that pairs well with the likes of Reddick, Hocevar, Gibbs, Bell, Larson, Elliott, Byron, etc. Briscoe wasn’t anything special in practice, but when it mattered most the team made good adjustments to qualify the car inside the top five.

If we include the All-Star Race at Dover a few weeks ago, Briscoe has three top five finishes in his last four races. In that span he’s led 116 laps with 94 fastest laps. Again, if we include the All-Star Race, he has five top five finishes in his last eight races. So he’s turning the corner and trending in the right direction.

The track history at Michigan isn’t very good, I can’t make an argument there. But he did win the pole at Michigan and Indianapolis last year. And he won the race at Pocono and this was right around the same time a year ago that Briscoe’s season really took off with JGR. We want to be early to the 2026 breakout and Briscoe gets a nice bump with Hamlin dropping to the rear for this race.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Carson Hocevar (Starting P2) – DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $8,500

You don’t need me to tell you that Hocevar is a GPP-only recommendation for this race. Because of the starting spot, and overall DFS variance to Hocevar, we can’t trust this play enough in cash games. But as we always say with Hocevar, he’s an aggressive driver and he’ll take strategic risks to gain track position.

He was very competitive in Saturday’s Craftsman Truck Series race and this is his home track. A Michigan driver has never won at Michigan and Hocevar certainly has the early track position to become the first.

Do I want to be heavy with this play? No. I’m comfortable matching the field even if that’s at 20-25%. If the rest of the field wants to heavily aim for dominator points with Reddick and Hocevar then let them. But Hocevar seems to know how to make this track as short as possible and his style of racing can deliver a big score on DraftKings and FanDuel for our NASCAR DFS picks.

Bubba Wallace (Starting P13) – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $9,000

Michigan is a track where Bubba should always be on our radar. Bubba’s ceiling is very high at a track like this but as is always the case with Bubba, the floor can be rather low. Bubba finished fourth in this race last year and he finished second back in 2022. And he led 20+ laps at this track in both the 2022 and 2023 versions of this race.

He doesn’t have the greatest momentum, but he was top 10 at Texas, Kansas, and Vegas which are somewhat comparable based on the aero package. But Michigan is simply bigger and requires a big engine to win races. We saw Wallace surprise everyone with his win at Indianapolis last summer, and again, that’s the kind of track that one can compare to Michigan.

So tread carefully with Bubba this weekend but I like the upside for GPP contests. He hasn’t led many laps of late and he doesn’t have momentum coming into this race. But the Toyotas should once again have an edge on Sunday, and this is a track where Bubba has top five potential.

Ross Chastain (Starting P32) – DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $8,200

I’ll be brief on Chastain. The position differential he offers from this starting spot is obviously appealing. But last week was the race to play Chastain. He loved his car last week and I can’t quite find any digital media commenting on his setup for this week. He looks good on the P2Q table but he also went out during the first practice group which had the better track conditions. But at the end of the day, the PD is there and he’s affordable. But chalk Ross bombed for us a week ago.

We can hang our hat on the fact he has good track history here. In 2023 and 2025 he grabbed a pair of top 10 finishes at this track. And in 2022, he didn’t finish well but he led 29 laps after starting P22. If he finishes 15th with no dominator points, then he’s returning 45 fantasy points. And if he can grab some fastest laps or even finish better than 15th then he’s giving us that 50-point performance we’re seeking.

Brad Keselowski (Starting P26) – DraftKings: $7,900 | FanDuel: $7,800

It may surprise some that I skipped over Chris Buescher in the mid-range. Buescher has great track history at Michigan. He won this race three years ago and he was the runner-up last year. So I do like him but Brad Keselowski is $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings and this is his home track.

And we can’t lose sight of the fact that RFK Racing always brings competitive cars to Michigan. While the Toyotas have pulled away this season, this team hangs around and contends. I don’t expect that to change this weekend by any means.

Keselowski has three straight top 10 finishes at Michigan and he grabbed a pair of top five results in 2023 and 2024. This race means a lot to Kez and it’s a track he hasn’t won at in the Cup Series. Darlington and Michigan are where RFK Racing really showcase their speed and contend so I’m expecting him to be a bit of a dark horse candidate this weekend.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ryan Preece (Starting P27) – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $6,200

We just finished with one RFK Racing driver so let’s pivot to another as we kick off the value portion of our NASCAR DFS picks. Preece, similar to Chris Buescher, is on a bit of a cold streak. Even last week he seemed like a phenomenal play based on his starting spot, but it wasn’t meant to be. He enters Michigan with three straight finishes outside the top 30.

Preece, like his RFK compadres, has impressed when NASCAR has rolls through Michigan. We’re only in Preece’s second year with the team, but last year he started P23 and finish ninth. The year prior, with Stewart-Haas Racing, he started P26 and finished 11th. He’s gained at least six spots of positive position differential in his last seven races at this track.

We’ve touted Preece plenty this season and despite the cold streak, this is the perfect time for Michigan to appear on the schedule. All the RFK cars have top 10 potential on Sunday.

Erik Jones (Starting P10) – DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $7,000

Erik Jones, while not with RFK Racing, tends to pop up at the same tracks RFK does. And Michigan is no different, this is one of Jones’ best tracks and he’s a Michigan native. I’m not sure if this is still the case, but previously when NASCAR would roll through Michigan, Jones would share the story that he would sleep in his childhood bedroom at his parents’ house for the week.

Since the start of the 2023 season, Jones’ two best tracks by average finish are Pocono and Michigan. Both tracks are considered large ovals that require a big engine and a lot of speed. In the NextGen era, his worst finish here is 16th and he has three finishes of 11th or better. At Pocono, Jones has finished 14th or better in four straight races.

And Jones has something that some of the RFK drivers don’t have: Momentum. Jones finished 11th at Nashville, 13th at Charlotte, 3rd at Dover (exhibition race), and has was 12th at Texas about a month ago. He likely doesn’t have the juice to contend with Joe Gibbs Racing or 23XI Racing. But he’s good enough to grab a top 10 and score well for our NASCAR DFS picks, but the starting spot keeps him out of our cash game lineups.

Shane Van Gisbergen (Starting P30) – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $6,800

SVG has really come on strong of late. All the Trackhouse cars qualified poorly but SVG really seems to be figuring out the ovals quicker than we all anticipated, so the poor qualifying effort gives us some exciting PD to target. Two weeks ago at Charlotte he led 11 laps and then last week at Nashville he led a dozen laps. He managed to finish 11th at Charlotte and he was top five last week at Nashville according to everybody except FanDuel Sportsbook.

But even at Texas and Dover he managed to finish top 20 and this price tag is not prohibitive by any means for a driver who has shown he can lead laps on the ovals. If he can grab a top 15 finish at Michigan then he’s returning 6X value and over 40 fantasy points. We have to start thinking differently about SVG at the ovals.

Austin Cindric (Starting P31) – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $6,000

Cindric cut a tire in practice so we didn’t get a good look at how strong the car might be. And while the Fords almost unanimously qualified poorly, we’re getting some great PD to target from that camp. And keep in mind, this is Michigan. This is the home state of all things Ford. This race means plenty to every driver in this camp.

Cindric will roll off P31, which gives him a good floor. The last couple weeks haven’t been great, but this is the value tier for a reason. Cindric is in good equipment and he’s a winner at the Cup Series level. Cindric wrecked early at Charlotte but he was top 15 at Texas and Kansas which seems like a fair expectation for this race.

Both his teammates (Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney) had top 15 practice speed in the 5-and-10-lap metrics so I don’t think it’s too unreasonable to believe Cindric should have somewhat comparable speed even if all the Fords missed the boat during qualifying.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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