Buckle up. We’re heading back to Texas — the land of horsepower, heartbreak, and high-speed chaos.

The Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway is a unique beast. It’s a 1.5-mile track with minimal tire wear, a ton of late-race cautions, and just enough banking to turn strategy on its head. In the Next Gen era, this place has been anything but predictable.

But that’s where we thrive. We dive into the stats, analyze the odds, and find the value the books missed. From sneaky long shots to props that could cash early, here’s how we’re betting Sunday’s race in Fort Worth.

 

 

 

Würth 400 at Texas Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Ryan Blaney (+950 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The 2022 All-Star winner at Texas. Blaney was running third at the end of Stage 2 last year before a wreck took him out. He still led 17 laps and qualified top 10. Penske has looked fast on intermediates this season, and Blaney’s due. His average running position last year: 8.3 — ignore the finish.

Tyler Reddick (+700 Caesars Sportsbook)

Reddick has led 36+ laps in back-to-back Texas races, with a win in 2022. He’s top 5 in multiple intermediate speed metrics this year and finished 4th at Vegas and Darlington. 23XI has speed here, and Reddick’s long-run pace has been elite. A strong ladder play.

William Byron (+600 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We usually fade the chalk, but sometimes the chalk cashes. Byron has the best average finish (3.7) in the Next Gen era at Texas — with a win in 2023, a P2 in 2022, and P7 in 2024. Hendrick cars dominate here. If you’re playing safe up top, Byron is your guy.
 

 

 

Würth 400 Mid-Range Picks

Alex Bowman (+2500 BetMGM)

Texas hasn’t been kind to Bowman overall — but his 1.5-mile form is red-hot. He’s finished top 10 in six straight intermediate races, and he led late at Homestead earlier this year. He also ran P5 at Texas in 2020. He’s in the mix every week right now — don’t overlook this value.

Chase Elliott (+1800 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Elliott won this race last year and has been the model of consistency in 2025. He has six top 10s in 10 races, and five of those came at non-superspeedways. Texas has been a rollercoaster for him, but when strategy flips the field late, Elliott always seems to survive.

 

 

 

Würth 400 Longshots Picks

Josh Berry (+3500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Vegas proved Berry can win on intermediates — and he did it from deep in the field. He’s a sneaky match for this track, given his high racing IQ and calm demeanor in chaos. Texas is volatile, and Berry thrives in races where survival matters more than raw speed.

Austin Cindric (+6000 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Fresh off a last-lap win at Talladega, Cindric now heads to a track where Penske has found speed. He hasn’t posted a top 10 here yet, but has Xfinity success at Texas and just needs clean air late. The confidence boost makes him worth a dart at 60-1.

 

 

 

Würth 400 – Prop Bets

We’re getting wild this week — swinging on big-value longshot props that match track history and team momentum. Buckle up.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Top 10 Finish (+1100 FanDuel Sportsbook)

He finished 7th here in 2023, and books are wildly underpricing his upside. This is chaos week. He’s shown top-10 upside at intermediates before. One late yellow, and he’s in it.

Ryan Preece Top 10 Finish (+550 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Preece has finished 9th at Homestead and 3rd at Vegas this year — both on 1.5-milers. RFK cars have speed, and Preece’s steady form and history of surviving attrition make this a sharp play.

Zane Smith Top 10 Finish (+1200 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Zane’s finished 11th at Homestead and 12th at Darlington this year. That’s no fluke. He’s looked legit at intermediates with Front Row. If he keeps it clean, this could cash easy.
 

 

 

Würth 400 Final Thoughts

Texas is one of those tracks where the running order on Lap 300 rarely looks like Lap 30. Expect chaos. Expect cautions. Expect strategy to shuffle everything.

We’re betting on drivers who can survive the madness, thrive late, and bring real value — even when the favorites dominate the headlines.

See you in Victory Lane.