Last week was the coin flip I told you to bet light on, and it landed on its edge. Shane Van Gisbergen dominated the first half, got wrecked on a lap-32 restart, and Corey Heim drove off with the inaugural Anduril 250. If you spread your money across the road guys and kept the units small like I begged you to, you had a live ticket all afternoon anyway. Same deal this week. Almost.

The Toyota/Save Mart 350 goes green Sunday, June 28 at 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT, and we’re still on the West Coast, still turning right. But here’s the big difference from San Diego: Coronado was a blind debut, and Sonoma has a 36-year book. We know what this 1.99-mile, 12-turn road course rewards: car control, tire management, patience. And we know who’s good here. That changes everything about how we bet it.

Van Gisbergen is -165 at DraftKings, basically last week’s number, and he’s the defending winner who led a record 97 laps here a year ago. He’s the most likely winner. But he’s quiet anywhere that isn’t a road course, he just ran 38th, and -165 leaves no margin if one restart goes wrong. The value is underneath: Zilisch at a real number, Reddick the proven road winner and points leader, and my favorite wrinkle. Kyle Larson is back on my card. I faded him last week with no Hendrick street book; this week he’s a two-time Sonoma winner at +1100, racing 20 minutes from his Elk Grove hometown.

So back the road aces, lean on the guys who actually have a Sonoma book, and use the props to play the chalk the smart way. And still bet light: a road course is a road course, and the same restart that ended SVG’s day last week ends somebody’s this week.

 

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Connor Zilisch (+700 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.75u

First name on my card again, and for the same reason.

Zilisch’s Cup rookie season has been rough. He’s buried in the standings after a string of early exits. But none of that matters one bit on a road course, because this is the one place his ceiling is the highest in the field. He’s the best young road-and-street racer in the country, he’s got a real Trackhouse Chevy under him, and he was running up front at Coronado before SVG took him out through no fault of his own. The talent is not in question. The luck is. At +700 you’re getting the second choice on the board for a guy who genuinely might be faster than the favorite turning right.

Back the kid. Let the variance even out.

Kyle Larson (+1100 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

This is the play I couldn’t make last week, and I love that I can make it now.

Larson has won at Sonoma twice. He’s elite on road courses, he’s got the best equipment in the garage, and he sits fourth in points with a Hendrick team that actually has a book here. Last week I faded him because the venue was a blind debut and Hendrick had nothing to lean on. None of that applies to a track they’ve run since before Larson was born, on a course he grew up an hour from. The road-course luck that haunted him in 2025 looks like it’s turned, too. He was on the Coronado podium last week. At +1100 you’re getting a two-time winner of this exact race at better than four times the favorite’s implied number. That’s the gap I want.

Tyler Reddick (+850 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

Reddick is the proven road winner with extra motivation stapled to the hood.

He’s got Cup wins turning both directions (COTA, the Indy road course, Road America), and a 23XI car that just put two cars on the podium last week. On top of the racing, Sonoma opens the In-Season Challenge, and Reddick enters as the No. 1 seed and the points leader. There’s a million-dollar bracket and a regular-season lead riding on this stretch. A motivated proven road ace at +850 is exactly the profile I want at a price the market is being generous with.

Shane Van Gisbergen (-165 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.25u

I’m not laying -165 to win a road race as a conviction play. I just watched this exact number go to the garage on lap 32.

But I’m not leaving the best road racer alive off the card, either. SVG is the most likely single winner on the board and it isn’t close. He’s the defending champ who led 97 laps here a year ago and won this place as a rookie before that. This is coverage and nothing more, a quarter unit, because the smart way to back him is in the props and we’ll get there. If you want him to win, get him here small, not at full freight.

 

 

 

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions 2026 - Long Shot Winners

Michael McDowell (+1800) 0.25u

The specialist the board keeps underpricing.

McDowell is a flat-out road-course racer who’s already won at the Cup level turning right, and he qualifies and runs up front on these layouts as a matter of routine. Sonoma’s tight, technical corners are the great equalizer that drags a guy like this into the top ten against the big organizations. At +1800 you’re paying longshot money for a driver whose entire skill set is built for this Sunday. Quarter unit, loud as always.

Chris Buescher (+2200 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.25u

The quiet one nobody circles, and that’s the point.

Buescher has become one of the most reliable road-course runners in the sport without ever making a scene about it: three top-fives in nine Sonoma starts, 40 laps led here, and a road-course résumé that stacks up against anyone in the field. The number is longer than it should be precisely because he doesn’t generate headlines. On a track that rewards clean, patient, mistake-free laps, the guy who never overcooks a corner is exactly who steals one. At +2200, I’m happy to be early on him.

AJ Allmendinger (+3300) 0.25u

If we’re throwing a dart at chaos, throw it at the road ringer.

Allmendinger has built an entire career on this track type, and Sonoma’s narrow passing zones are where the establishment gets stuck and a specialist can leapfrog three cars on a clean pit sequence. He doesn’t need raw speed to cash here. He needs track position and patience, and nobody in the field has more reps doing exactly that. Keep it light at +3300, but the survivor on a road course is sometimes the guy nobody bet.

 

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions 2026 - Fades

Denny Hamlin (+10000)

Same fade as last week, and the number’s still triple digits.

Hamlin is second in points, eight back of Reddick, and still one of the best drivers in the sport. I’m not doubting the man. I’m doubting the venue, exactly like I did in San Diego. Road courses are the one soft spot on an otherwise loaded résumé, and the market knows it: +10000 is the board flatly telling you it does not believe he wins here. He’s a defensible sprinkle if you think his veteran craft finally translates, but the history says fade, and I’m not the guy to argue with a 100-1 price on a road course. Pass.

Ty Gibbs (+1600 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Speed on Saturday, questions on Sunday. We’ve seen this movie.

Gibbs will run up front on a road course and he’ll flash real pace. The problem is the same one I had with him last week: he hasn’t closed on this track type, and +1600 is paying contender money for a maybe when I can get a two-time Sonoma winner in Larson at +1100 and a proven Cup road winner in McDowell at +1800. Better fits, comparable or longer numbers. Hard pass.

William Byron (+3500)

This is the toughest fade because the season is so good and the equipment is so strong.

Byron has run near the top of the points all year and the Hendrick floor is sky-high. But road courses are not his discipline. They’re the one track type where his profile sags, and Sonoma’s track-position battle can neutralize even the best intermediate car. At +3500 I’d rather have McDowell, Buescher, or Allmendinger, who are built for exactly this layout, than pay for a points machine on the wrong kind of track. Easy pass.

 

 

 

NASCAR Prop Picks: Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway

Shop both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. The best number swings between them. Here’s the card.

Connor Zilisch Top 3 (+180 at FanDuel Sportsbook) 0.50u

Normally this is where I’d tell you to buy SVG’s Top 3 instead of laying his win price. Not this week. The books have juiced it to -650 at FanDuel, and laying nearly seven-to-one for a tiny probability bump is a bad trade. You’ve already got SVG covered small on the outright, so here take the plus money on Zilisch, the guy with the highest ceiling in the field behind the favorite. Prefer the floor? His Top 5 is around even money (-115).

Tyler Reddick Top 5 (+105 at FanDuel Sportsbook) 0.50u

Plus money on the points leader, and the same read as his outright with a parachute. He’s a proven road winner in a 23XI car that just went 1-2, the No. 1 seed in the bracket, and he only has to finish where his speed says he should. Plus money on a Reddick top-five doesn’t last. Grab it.

Chris Buescher Top Ford (+210 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

Buescher only has to be the best Ford on the property, and the one car in his way is Ryan Blaney (+100). On a road course, give me the proven right-turn runner over the oval-leaning Penske car at plus money every time. Buescher’s road résumé is the best in the Ford camp, full stop. Clean value.

Tyler Reddick Top Toyota (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

The safer version of the Reddick outright. He just has to beat Gibbs, Briscoe, Bell, Wallace, and Hamlin to be the top Toyota, and he’s the best road racer of that group by a clear margin. Even money for the most likely Toyota is a steal.

AJ Allmendinger over Chase Briscoe (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.25u

A coin-flip head-to-head between two road-capable guys, and I’ll take the lifelong road ringer at pick’em. Allmendinger doesn’t need to win the race. He just needs to beat one driver, and this is the exact track type where his experience edge shows up. The cheap way to get the Dinger on the ticket.

Zilisch / Larson / Buescher “Triple Chance” (+330 at FanDuel Sportsbook) 0.50u

This is last week’s whole philosophy in one bet.

FanDuel’s Triple Chance pays if any one of three drivers wins the race, and this trio is exactly the non-chalk road tier we keep circling: Zilisch, Larson, and Buescher. We’re already on all three individually. +330 that one of them gets there, without having to pick which, is the cleanest way to bet “somebody other than SVG steals it,” and on a road course, somebody usually does. My favorite combo on the board.

*One anchor if you want it: Trackhouse Racing to win the team prop (-200 at DraftKings) cashes if SVG, Zilisch, Suárez, or Chastain wins, the most road-loaded garage there is. Same as last week, the number’s steep and our individual plays capture most of the edge cheaper, so keep it small.

 

 

 

Final Thoughts on the 2026 Toyota/Save Mart 350

Sonoma isn’t San Diego. There’s 36 years of book here, and that’s the whole edge. SVG is the most likely winner, but -165 is no place for your win money after last week’s wreck. Keep him to the small coverage play and bet the value underneath. Zilisch is the play to win, Larson’s the callback at +1100 in his own backyard, and Reddick’s the motivated value with a points lead and a bracket on the line. McDowell, Buescher, and Allmendinger are the specialists the board keeps handing us.

Don’t lay the chalk. Buy the specialists. Trust the book this week, and still bet light, because a restart is a restart and we just got the reminder.

That’s the ticket.