Sonoma went exactly the way the favorite drew it up. Shane Van Gisbergen led 75 laps, held off Chase Briscoe by a third of a second, and swept the weekend. I told you to buy him in the Top 3 and that ticket cashed, but I had him too light to win it outright, and the value underneath never showed up. Briscoe and Ty Gibbs, the two Toyotas I was coolest on, ran second and third. The road aces owned June. Tip of the cap and on we go.

Because now we turn left. The eero 400 goes green Sunday, July 5 at 6 p.m. ET on TNT, and NASCAR is back at Chicagoland Speedway for the first time since 2019. This is a 1.5-mile intermediate oval, 267 laps, and it could not be more different from the last two weeks. Every road ringer we leaned on all June just fell off a cliff on the board. Van Gisbergen is 100 to 1. Zilisch is 150 to 1. The entire card flips.

Here's the wrinkle that makes it fun: the current car has never turned a lap at Chicagoland. The place sat idle for six years, and that old, worn, abrasive surface was famous for chewing up tires and opening three and four grooves. That rewards one thing above all else, a driver who can move around the track and manage a tire that is going away. That is Kyle Larson's paradise. He qualified second, a thousandth of a second off the pole, and a slick multi-groove intermediate is exactly where the best mile-and-a-half racer alive pulls away from the field.

So the plan is simple. Back the intermediate aces, respect the tire, and don't overpay the pole. Hamlin won the pole, his fifth of the year, and sits at +250, but a worn surface with heavy falloff and zero current-car data is no place to lay a short number. And keep one eye on the practice sheet, because it tells a different story than the grid: Tyler Reddick was the fastest car in practice and then qualified a quiet 13th. The speed is in that car even if the starting spot hides it. RFK showed up too, with Chris Buescher third and Brad Keselowski fourth, and Toyota took five of the top seven. The value sits a rung or two down from the pole. And you can bet a touch heavier than the last two weeks, because an intermediate we see a version of every month is a lot less random than a debut street course.

 

 

 

eero 400 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Kyle Larson (+500 at BetRivers Sportsbook, +400 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.75u

First name on the card, and it isn't close.

Larson is the best 1.5-mile racer in the sport, full stop. He qualified second, a thousandth off the pole, and everything about this track plays to his hand: a worn, slick surface that rewards moving around, a tire that falls off hard, and a top groove that nobody else wants to run. That is his signature move. At +500 in spots you are getting the most talented intermediate driver alive at better than five to one, so shop for that number. This is the play.

Tyler Reddick (+400 at BetMGM Sportsbook, +350 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

The fastest car in practice, hiding in plain sight.

Reddick topped the practice sheet and then qualified 13th, which is exactly the kind of split that leaves value on the board. The race pace is real, he is the points leader with a regular-season lead and a bracket on the line, and the 23XI cars have run up front all year. A driver with the best practice lap starting deep enough to get overlooked is my kind of +400. Easy include.

Christopher Bell (+1300 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

The value flag of the week, and it is a big one.

Bell opened as short as +575 and DraftKings is sitting on +1300, which is a gift for a driver this good on intermediates. He wins on this track type, Joe Gibbs Racing brings speed to mile-and-a-halfs every week, and his number has drifted way past where his talent says it belongs. Take the DraftKings price before it corrects.

Ryan Blaney (+1400 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

Blaney and Team Penske are a staple on intermediates, and +1400 is a real number for a former champion who shows up on exactly this kind of track. He can lead laps, win a stage, and be there at the end. Solid mid-board value on a driver who fits the profile cleanly.

 

eero 400 Predictions 2026 - Long Shot Winners

William Byron (+1800 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

Byron is too good to be sitting here, and the road-course weeks are the only reason he is.

He is one of the best intermediate racers in the Hendrick stable, he runs near the front on this track type every week, and +1800 is a number that belongs to a driver half as good. He qualified 10th, so the car is already in the conversation. The market spent a month pricing right-turners, and the No. 24 got left behind. That is our gift. Best longshot on the board.

Carson Hocevar (+3000 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.25u

If we are throwing a dart, throw it at the kid with speed and nerve.

Hocevar is fast and fearless on intermediates, Spire has found real pace, and a tire-falloff track that rewards aggression is exactly where a young gun steals one. Keep it light at +3000, but this is a live dart, not a dead one.

Brad Keselowski (+1800 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.25u

Keselowski built a career on intermediate racing, and a worn, tire-management track suits a veteran who knows how to save a run for the final stage. He backed it up this weekend, qualifying fourth as RFK put both cars in the top four alongside Buescher in third. At +1800 for a driver whose whole book is built for this layout and who rolls off up front, I will take a small swing.

 

 

 

eero 400 Predictions 2026 - Fades

Shane Van Gisbergen (+10000)

The easiest fade I will ever write, and it stings a little the week after he swept Sonoma.

SVG is the best road racer alive. On a 1.5-mile oval he is a completely different driver, and not in a good way. He has never been a factor on intermediates, and 100 to 1 is still too short for a talent this far outside his element. For two weeks he was the answer to every question. Today he is a pass, full stop.

Denny Hamlin (+250 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Fading the pole-sitter takes some nerve, so let me be clear: I am fading the price, not the driver.

Hamlin is excellent and he starts up front. But +250 on a worn surface with heavy tire falloff and no current-car data at this track is asking you to lay a short number into real variance. One slow stop or one wrong tire call on a slick track and the pole means nothing. Give me Larson at five to one over Hamlin at five to two every time.

Connor Zilisch (+15000)

Same story as Van Gisbergen, one rung down.

Zilisch is a brilliant young road racer, and this is a 1.5-mile oval the current car has never touched, for a rookie who does his best work turning right. The road-ace tax that made us money in June runs out today. Pass.

 

NASCAR Prop Picks: eero 400 at Chicagoland Speedway

DraftKings has the full menu posted. Here is the card, all DraftKings numbers, and shop for better where you can find it.

Kyle Larson Top 3 (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.75u

Plus money on the best intermediate racer alive to reach the podium. On a worn mile-and-a-half that rewards tire management and running the top, a Larson top three is close to the likeliest single outcome on the board, and +120 for it is a gift. Top play.

Christopher Bell Top 5 (+185 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

The value flag, packaged safer. Bell is a proven intermediate winner and his whole market drifted long this week. We don't need him to win to profit. +185 for a top five from a Gibbs car on this track type is the number of the day.

William Byron Top 5 (+235 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

Same read as the outright, lower variance. Byron runs top five on mile-and-a-halfs as a baseline, and the road-course weeks left his price way too long. +235 for a top five from one of the best intermediate cars in the garage is a steal by Chicagoland standards.

Carson Hocevar Top 10 (+115 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.25u

The safer half of the longshot. We don't need the kid to win, just to run where his speed says he can. Plus money on a Hocevar top ten on an intermediate is a clean way to get him on the ticket without leaning on the +3000 alone.

Joe Gibbs Racing Winning Team (+150 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.50u

The smart way to cover the loaded org. JGR rolls out Hamlin on the pole plus Bell, Gibbs, and Briscoe, four legitimate intermediate threats under one roof. If any of the four wins, you cash. On a track type this deep for Gibbs, +150 that one of them gets there is the cleanest anchor on the page.

 

Final Thoughts on the 2026 eero 400

Chicagoland is a different sport than the last two weeks, and the board knows it. The road ringers that owned June are 100 to 1 today. Back the intermediate aces instead, and respect the tire.

Larson is the play, and the worn surface only sharpens the edge. Bell at +1300 and Byron at +1800 are the value the road-course weeks left lying around, and both are even better in the top-five props. Don't lay +250 on the pole. Take the guy starting next to him at five to one.

Respect the falloff, bet the value under the chalk, and shop your numbers. That's the ticket.