The NASCAR universe returns to Saturday night mayhem at Daytona; the very track where this season kicked off. It's the final shot to punch your ticket to the Playoffs, and half the field is in high-pressure mode. For everyone else? It’s time to channel your inner gambler and embrace chaos. Here’s how I’d roll if I were in your sneaker bottoms.

 

 

 

Coke Zero Sugar 400: The Favorites

Ryan Blaney (+1100 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Blaney won this race in 2021 and has remained one of the most consistent superspeedway performers in the field. He has four top-fives in his last nine Daytona starts and ranks among the best in average running position on drafting tracks. Penske’s Fords always bring raw speed, and Blaney’s playoff spot is secure - meaning he can race purely for the win.

Joey Logano (+1200 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Logano has been snake-bitten at Daytona lately, wrecking out of three straight races here despite leading a combined 122 laps. Still, he’s a former Daytona 500 champion with eight top-tens in 33 career starts. If he stays clean, his aggression and drafting instincts make him a top threat on Saturday night.

William Byron (+1800 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Byron is already a three-time Daytona winner, including this year’s 500, and has nothing to lose with the regular-season title already locked up. He’s become Hendrick’s most reliable superspeedway closer, with five top-tens in 15 starts. When Hendrick speed meets zero pressure? That spells danger.

 

 

 

Coke Zero Sugar 400: Mid-Tier Targets

Denny Hamlin (+2000 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Hamlin is a three-time Daytona 500 winner, but the summer race has been tougher - no wins and an average finish of 17.8 across 39 starts. Still, his ability to control lanes and his playoff experience make him a dangerous mid-tier pick. If he avoids the chaos, Hamlin is always capable of stealing a plate race.

Alex Bowman (+2000 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Bowman has quietly been one of the most consistent drivers at Daytona, with four top-sixes in his last five starts. He also owns three career poles here and often starts up front. Currently sitting on the playoff bubble, Bowman needs a safe night - but if this comes down to positioning in the final two laps, he has the skill and teammates to finish it off.

Bubba Wallace (+2500 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Bubba has built a strong superspeedway resume, with five career top-fives at Daytona, including two runner-ups. He nearly won this race in 2021 and always finds a way to hang around in the draft late. With 23XI speed and playoff motivation, Wallace is one of the best mid-tier values on the board.

 

 

 

Coke Zero Sugar 400 Longshots Worth a Look

Carson Hocevar (+3000 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Hocevar doesn’t have the track record at Daytona yet, but Spire cars have shown life on superspeedways, and he finished 6th at Talladega earlier this season. With nothing to lose and playoff chaos on the line, Hocevar fits the mold of a surprise summer Daytona winner.

Ross Chastain (+3500 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Chastain’s superspeedway form has dipped since his 2022 Talladega win, but he remains a capable pack racer. He’s led laps in three of his last four Daytona starts, and Trackhouse cars tend to have raw pace in the draft. At this number, his upside is worth a sprinkle.

Justin Haley (+4000 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Haley is one of the few in the field who has actually won this exact race, pulling off a shocking Spire victory in 2019. He’s also a multiple-time superspeedway winner in the Xfinity Series and has the patience to survive the chaos. In a better car now than during that lightning-shortened win, Haley is a live longshot.

 

 

 

Coke Zero Sugar 400 YOLO Dart of the Week

Noah Gragson (+5000 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Gragson’s got two top-10s at Daytona and a sixth at Talladega this year. He lives for last-lap chaos and isn't afraid to rock draft lines hard. If he avoids the big pile-ups, you might just be paying rent on his payday winnings.

 

 

 

Coke Zero Sugar 400 Props That Pop

Top 10 – John Hunter Nemechek (+290 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Nemechek fits the first-time winner trend at Daytona, but I’d rather cash the Top 10 at this number. Here’s why: he’s quietly been one of the most consistent drivers in the draft. Counting Duels, he’s finished top-15 in all eight Daytona attempts. The kicker? His 9.8 average finish here is the best in the entire field among drivers with at least five starts. That’s not a fluke - that’s value.

Winning Manufacturer – Ford (+135 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

How are they not the favorite here? Ford has owned the draft game lately and consistently stacks the top 10 at Daytona. Chevy may be priced shorter, but Penske and RFK have been the ones controlling lanes. At plus money, Ford is the sharp side.

Top 10 – Alex Bowman (+125 at Caesars Sportsbook)

This number makes no sense. Bowman’s logged four top-six finishes in his last five Daytona starts, and he’s rolling off the front row. More importantly, he needs a clean race sitting on the playoff bubble. Plus money for that combination is a steal.

Bonus YOLO Prop: Top 10 – BJ McLeod (+1100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

This isn’t just blind luck. McLeod has 10 Daytona starts and already bagged two top-10s, including 7th in the 2022 summer race. His approach is simple: ride in the back, let the chaos wipe out half the field, and be there when the smoke clears. At +1100, that survival strategy has already paid twice - and it can pay again.

 

 

Coke Zero Sugar 400: Final Thoughts

Daytona does not care about who is fastest. It cares about who survives the wrecks and who gets the right push at the right time. Penske has the horsepower, Hendrick has the finishers, and Bubba always seems to be in the picture when the field explodes.

The longshots are not just for laughs. Hocevar, Haley, and Gragson all have the kind of chaos equity that can turn the playoff grid upside down. Props are sharp too. Nemechek owns the best average finish in the field, Bowman needs a clean night to hang onto the bubble, and Ford at plus money feels like robbery. Even a BJ McLeod YOLO ticket makes sense at this track.

At Daytona you are not betting perfection. You are betting survival, luck, and timing. Somebody is going to cash a wild ticket Saturday night. It might as well be us.

 

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