Welcome to the Monster Mile, where tires vanish, tempers flare, and playoff dreams either get boosted or buried. It’s Round 4 of the In-Season Challenge and the chaos meter is about to spike. We've got six races left until the playoffs, the Toyotas are red hot, Hendrick owns this place historically, and somehow, Joey Logano is still hanging around like that guy at the party who won’t leave.

Let’s hit the board and find the value plays to get your betting card locked and loaded for Sunday.

 

 

 

The Favorites

Denny Hamlin (+500 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Three wins this year. Reigning Dover champ. Fastest car on the long run at Michigan. Hamlin’s led 207 laps here in his last three starts and looked like the grim reaper in clean air last season. You’re not getting rich at +500, but if you’re stacking outrights, this is your anchor.

Kyle Larson (+550 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

One win here, but let’s talk about the real flex: 938 laps led in 16 starts and a career average finish of 8.2—yes, better than Jimmie Johnson. Dover fits Larson’s hammer-down style. The question is whether he can stop tripping over himself like he has the last few weeks.

William Byron (+750 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chevy’s sharpest sword. Byron’s led a whopping 229 laps here over the past three races, and even though his finishing position at Dover looks meh on paper, the speed is there. If Hendrick hits the setup, he could walk away with this one.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier Targets

Chase Elliott (+1100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

How is Elliott not a favorite? Two Dover wins, 10 top-fives in 14 starts, and an active top-three average finish at this place. He’s also riding a heater with four top-fives in the last five races. If you’re betting with your brain and not your heart, this is your guy.

Christopher Bell (+1200 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Bell on concrete is like peanut butter and jelly—just works. He’s got three top-sixes in his last four Dover starts and might’ve had another if not for a DNF. Dover, Bristol, Nashville... Bell eats on these surfaces. Quietly a top-five machine lately. Sneaky sharp.

Ross Chastain (+1500 at BetRivers Sportsbook)

Two top-fives and 184 laps led in the last three Dover races. That's not a fluke. If he can avoid turning the No. 1 car into a battering ram (again), Chastain has the speed to steal this one. Trackhouse is trending up and he’s a high-upside dart if you like risk.

 

 

 

Longshot Worth a Look

Alex Bowman (+2200 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Bowman the Showman. One win here, five top-fives, and he’s finished 8th or better in four straight Dover races. He was the fastest car for a chunk of last year’s race before chaos struck. At this price? That’s not value—that’s disrespect.

Joey Logano (+2600 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

He’s still Joey. He’s still in the playoffs. And he’s got 15 top-10s in 28 Dover starts. Logano won at Texas earlier this year and finished 9th at Sonoma, so there’s life. He doesn’t need to win, but that’s exactly when he usually screws everything up for the rest of us.

Carson Hocevar (+3000 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

If Hocevar drove for Gibbs or Penske, this number would be cut in half. But he doesn’t—he drives for a mid-pack team that’s been punching above its weight. He just beat Logano head-to-head and has legit top-10 speed at tracks like this. Raw talent, pit strategy chaos, and desperation? That’s the recipe for a longshot dart you actually want to throw.

 

 


 

YOLO Pick of the Race

Erik Jones (+8000 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

You want a YOLO ticket? This is the one. Jones has a sneaky 13.8 average finish at Dover and ran 10th here in 2022 in a car that had no business being in the top 15. If Legacy hits on strategy or a late caution flips the board, he’s got just enough juice to sneak into the mix. Best true longshot on the board.

 

 

 

Props That Pop

Top-5 Finish – Christopher Bell (+190 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

He hasn’t won here yet, but Bell’s concrete form is undeniable. Give me the guy who’s been top-five at Dover, Bristol, and Nashville regularly. Also has Xfinity wins here. Feels like a safe bet.

Top-10 Finish – Alex Bowman (-110 at BetRivers Sportsbook)

Bowman has four straight top-10s at Dover and won here in 2021. Even when things haven’t gone perfectly, he still grinds out top-eight finishes. At -110, this is one of the safest props on the board—low juice, high probability, great value.

Winning Manufacturer – Chevrolet (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Hendrick has 22 wins at Dover. Chevy has had at least one car in the top-10 in 24 straight Dover races. All four Hendrick drivers have posted a top-five here since 2019. Don’t overthink it.

 

 

 

Final Thoughts

This one’s going to be a war of attrition. Tire wear, track position, and avoiding mechanical gremlins will separate the contenders from the field fillers. Hendrick Motorsports looks primed, but don’t sleep on a hungry Bell or a pissed-off Chastain. Hamlin’s the chalk. Elliott and Bowman are the value. Hocevar is the fun dart. Erik Jones is the chaos grenade. Grab your popcorn, place your bets, and let’s tame the Monster Mile.

 

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