Tarik Skubal Underdog MLB Picks Today, 7/24: Baseball Projections + More

What is up, Fantasy Alarm family? We are hunting pitcher K picks and strikeout prop betting value again for Underdog Fantasy, built around season stats, current form, and matchup splits against lefties and righties for Friday's MLB slate. Two arms stand out above the rest of today's strikeout prop board. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker. Let us break down today's top plays.

Tarik Skubal MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 7.5 Strikeouts

Skubal is 6-5 with a 2.83 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 82.2 innings, the two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner rounding back into peak form after missing six weeks following elbow surgery. Over his last five appearances, he's posted a 3.04 FIP while allowing just a 17.5% hard-hit rate, and across his last two outings specifically, he's running a 1.27 FIP without allowing a single home run. His last start was vintage: seven shutout innings, five hits, nine strikeouts, zero walks against the Angels on a tidy 87 pitches, and he's now recorded nine strikeouts in each of his last four night games.

Today he gets Kansas City, and it's a bullpen game for the Royals; opener Beck Way typically works just an inning before handing things to a relief corps that's been getting torched lately, a 5.27 xERA over the last week alone. That means Skubal gets an extended look at the same soft lineup with little length working against him elsewhere in the game. He's also allowed a run in the first inning in 10 of his last 11 starts, so an early hook isn't the concern here; the volume of strikeouts across a normal outing is. Take it.

Jesus Luzardo MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 7.5 Strikeouts

Luzardo is a 2026 All-Star riding one of the best runs of any starter in the league, 9-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 143 strikeouts in 115.1 innings, an 11.2 K/9 that ranks among the best marks in baseball. Philadelphia has won 10 straight starts he's made, and his last outing was efficient rather than overpowering: five innings, one run, two hits against the Mets in his first start back from the break.

Today he gets a Yankees lineup missing both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and New York strikes out against lefties at a strong 24.6% clip this season, one of the better matchup numbers on the board. Worth flagging: Luzardo has had a rough history against the Yankees specifically in the past, an 18.36 ERA across two prior starts, but that's a tiny sample from years ago against a lineup that no longer resembles what he's facing tonight with two of their best bats sidelined. A dominant lefty at his stuff peak against a thinned-out, strikeout-prone lineup is a clean target regardless. Lock it in.

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