Parker Messick Underdog MLB Picks Today, 7/21: Baseball Projections + More

What is up, Fantasy Alarm family? We are hunting pitcher K picks and strikeout prop betting value again for Underdog Fantasy, built around season stats, current form, and matchup splits against lefties and righties for Tuesday's MLB slate. Two arms stand out above the rest of today's strikeout prop board. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker. Let us break down today's top plays.

Parker Messick MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

The matchup for Messick today lines up well in the middle of a special rookie season. Messick sits at 8-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, an 8.8 K/9 and a 24.7% strikeout rate, with 110 strikeouts on the season already. Last week he was the standout arm of the All-Star Game itself, working around a leadoff double and walk to post a scoreless first inning, drawing praise as the brightest young pitcher in Cleveland’s rotation. 

Tonight he draws a Minnesota lineup that strikes out at a 21.8% clip against lefties this season, right around league average, nothing that scares off the pick. Messick has cleared this number in six of his last ten starts, and his own emerging swing-and-miss stuff combined with the confidence of a dominant national showcase makes this a number worth trusting. Take it.

Noah Schultz MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 4.5 Strikeouts

The matchup for Schultz today is a good one for a rookie finding his groove. He carries a 5.60 ERA and 5.27 FIP into his 12th career start, with 47 strikeouts in 53.2 innings and an 8.0 K/9. His last outing was efficient, five innings, one earned run, four hits allowed against Oakland, continuing a stretch where he has shown real swing-and-miss flashes even while working through a 12.6% walk rate.

Tonight he draws a Texas lineup that already strikes out at a strong 25.3% clip against lefties on the season, and that number has climbed even further to 31.5% over the last two weeks, one of the hottest recent strikeout trends on the entire board. Schultz has cleared this total in six of his last ten starts. A rookie lefty who has flashed real strikeout upside running into a Rangers lineup chasing punchouts at an elevated rate right now gives this number plenty of room. Lock it in.

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