Logan Henderson Underdog MLB Picks Today, 7/22: Baseball Projections + More

What is up, Fantasy Alarm family? We are hunting pitcher K picks and strikeout prop betting value again for Underdog Fantasy, built around season stats, current form, and matchup splits against lefties and righties for Wednesday's MLB slate. Two arms stand out above the rest of today's strikeout prop board. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker. Let us break down today's top plays.

Logan Henderson MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

The matchup for Henderson today comes with real confidence behind it. He's 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 2.71 FIP this season, and a phenomenal 2.45 ERA across 12 career starts spanning two seasons, 71 strikeouts in 58.2 innings, a 10.3 K/9, and a 29.7% strikeout rate that both rank near the top of today's board. He's also been remarkably efficient since returning from a back injury that cost him over six weeks, holding a 34:7 K:BB ratio over his last six outings.

His last start was clean: five innings, four strikeouts, one run, zero walks against the Marlins, and it only took him 73 pitches to get there, a sign he's building back up gradually rather than being pushed. Today he makes his first career start against the Mets, confirmed directly by Brewers beat coverage, and New York strikes out against right-handers at a 21.8% clip this season, a fair, workable number rather than an elite one. With a pitcher trending upward in both stuff and workload, and a Mets club that has been mired in an 11-game losing streak coming in, this is a spot to trust the emerging arm over the name recognition. Take it.

Hunter Dobbins MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 4.5 Strikeouts

The matchup for Dobbins today is a fresh spot-start opportunity with real swing-and-miss upside in a small sample. Just recalled from Triple-A Memphis as St. Louis shifts to a six-man rotation, Dobbins has punched out 23 batters in 22.1 innings across five appearances with the Cardinals this year, a 9.3 K/9 and 24.2% strikeout rate that both outpace what his 4.03 ERA might suggest. As a fresh call-up making a rotation-shuffle spot start rather than an emergency bullpen-game arm, he could also see a slightly longer leash tonight since St. Louis isn't trying to protect his innings for later in the week.

Today he gets the Angels, and Los Angeles chases strikeouts against right-handers at a 24.9% clip this season, one of the best matchup numbers on the entire slate, tied for the top mark among all the games we're targeting today. A rested, fresh arm with early swing-and-miss flashes running into one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in baseball gives this plus-money number real room to work. Lock it in.

Unlock Your $50 Guaranteed Bonus & More With Underdog Promo

Come hang out in our free Fantasy Alarm Discord to talk through these selections and swap entries with our analysts!