Winning a fantasy baseball championship requires separating performance from outcome. While standard box scores can lie, Statcast metrics like expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging (xSLG) rarely do. As we enter the second half of the season, a select group of position players is primed to see their luck flip in a massive way. Whether they are high-profile stars anchored by an impossibly low BABIP or a former top prospect barreling everything into the gloves of defenders, these three breakout candidates represent the ultimate buy-low opportunities to spark your roster for the fantasy playoffs. 

Check out our latest buy or sell articles on Fantasy Alarm featuring Joey Cantillo, Vladimir Guerrero, and Jac Caglianone. 

Mets Fans, Look Away..This is What Life Used to Be Like

Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM)

It was a brutal first half for Francisco Lindor, but don’t fret, things are going to get better. Everything under the hood looks good for Lindor, and that’s what you have to hold onto. Lindor has been one of the league’s unluckiest players this year.

  • Batting average - .216 / Expected batting average - .260
  • Slugging percentage - .373 / Expected slugging percentage - .440
  • wOBA - .298 / xwOBA - .342 

Lindor is walking more than he has over the last two seasons and is striking out at his lowest clip since 2020. He’s just been incredibly unlucky. His BABIP over his career is .290, and this year he has a career-low .231 BABIP.

Let’s not forget about who we’re talking about here. This player has had 30-plus home runs, 107-plus runs scored, and 86-plus more batted in in three consecutive seasons. This is a very high upside fantasy add, and if you currently roster him, hold onto him, and if you’re looking for a shortstop upgrade, go get him.

Brandon Nimmo (OF, TEX)

Brandon Nimmo is poised to go on a run; he just needs a second half of good health. That’s all we’re asking for. Amongst all qualified hitters, Brandon Nimmo has had the worst luck in terms of slugging to expected slugging and is the third unluckiest in wOBA as well.

  • .425 SLG%, .522 xSLG (-.097 difference, 1st)
  • .330 wOBA, .379 xwOBA (-.049 difference, 3rd)
  • .263 BA, .293 xBA (-.030 difference, 19th)

Nimmo is 92nd percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg Exit Velo, and Hard-Hit rate this year. Statcast loves him, and it’s possible his fantasy owner does not. As long as it doesn’t cost an arm and a leg, he’s a big-time breakout candidate that you should try to acquire.

We touched on health earlier, but he has had a really good run of health over the last four years and has been incredibly productive in each of those seasons. He’s very consistently a 20-80-75 player year in, year out.

 

 

 

The Upside Breakout Candidate

Cam Smith (OF, HOU)

The former top-50 prospect has been a little unlucky, and things are going to break right in the second half for Cam Smith. He’s already topped last year's home run and stolen base totals in 38 fewer games. He’s only hitting .218 with his expected batting average being .253, and it’s partly due to his .254 BABIP. He’s had absolutely NO batted ball luck on his side despite barreling everything, hitting everything hard, and having 98th percentile bat speed.

Smith is also really fast and as the luck begins to turn, he’ll be able to utilize his 93rd percentile sprint speed more and more. He’s still available in 90 percent of Yahoo! Fantasy baseball leagues and is best suited for 14-plus team leagues where you’re looking for a jolt in power and speed.